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Armenia and Turkey: Bridging the Gap

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  • Armenia and Turkey: Bridging the Gap

    http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/inde x.cfm?fa=view&id=40566
    Friday, April 8, 2010
    Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

    Armenia and Turkey: Bridging the Gap
    by Thomas de Waal


    The current crisis between Armenia and Turkey will likely reach a head
    by April 24, the date commemorated as Armenian Genocide Day. While
    there is virtually no hope that the 2009 Armenian-Turkish Protocols
    will be ratified soon, both parties should take small steps to rebuild
    confidence and affirm their faith in the process.

    If ratified, the Protocols would open the closed Armenia-Turkey
    border, promising Armenia long-term economic transformation and an end
    to its regional isolation. For Turkey, ratifying the protocols gives
    it a new role in the Caucasus and is a major step toward ending the
    humiliation of foreign parliaments passing genocide resolutions
    condemning Turkey.

    Key Conclusions:

    * Turkey, which has dragged its feet this year, needs to make
    goodwill gestures toward Armenia to keep the process alive. Steps
    could include opening the border for noncommercial travelers near the
    ancient city of Ani to allow Armenian tourists to visit the site
    inside Turkey.

    * The Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorny Karabakh remains
    the deepest problem facing the South Caucasus, and for the Turkish
    government, the major obstacle to ratifying the Protocols. Although
    Armenian-Turkish normalization is negatively affecting the Karabakh
    peace process in the short term, in the long run it has the potential
    to change the dynamics of the region and help the resolution of the
    Karabakh conflict.

    * Negotiations over Nagorny Karabakh are stalled. Mediators should
    not push the parties too hard on status issues, but instead focus on
    other areas that will underpin a final agreement, such as Track II
    talks and economic development and reconstruction plans.

    * The Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhichevan offers a `win-win'
    opportunity in the Nagorny Karabakh conflict. If Armenia agrees to
    open up communications with the enclave in tandem with the opening of
    the Armenia-Turkey border, all sides could claim success.


    On April 24, President Obama should move beyond the annual debate over
    the word genocide and look ahead to the centenary of the tragedy in
    2015 by encouraging the Turks to take part in commemorating the
    occasion.
    `The Turkey-Armenia process was the most positive initiative in the
    South Caucasus in years and still has the potential to transform the
    region. If the process is to get back on track, all involved parties,
    including the United States, should articulate a strategic vision for
    the region, and for resolution of the Karabakh conflict,' writes de
    Waal. `The centenary of the Armenian tragedy in 2015 is a good
    reference point by which to set the goal of Armenian-Turkish
    normalization.'
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