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Armenian-Turkish process will not be suspended

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  • Armenian-Turkish process will not be suspended

    Armenian-Turkish process will not be suspended

    The Protocols will be ratified no matter we like it or not, and the
    parties interested in this `international project' will begin a new
    phase: implementation of the items of the Protocols.

    Turkish Prime Minister's special envoy Feridun Sinirlioglu's visit to
    Armenia caused an inexplicable commotion in the political and expert
    levels, although such kind of visits before anticipated or scheduled
    meetings of Heads of State are an ordinary diplomatic practice.
    However, the passion of Armenian commentators to see some secret (or
    evil) intent in every move best shows how little information the
    society has on the Armenian-Turkish relations, being satisfied with
    `comments' contradicting both the essence and the content.

    April 9, 2010 AMT
    PanARMENIAN.Net -

    But if you try to calculate the forthcoming steps of Ankara, which, by
    the way, is not so difficult, it must be noted that in all probability
    there will be no suspension of Armenian-Turkish processes. World
    powers will not simply allow Ankara and Yerevan to engage in gag. Most
    interesting in this situation is Sinirlioglu's visit to Baku, where he
    will continue to assure his Azeri `brothers' that the attitude of
    Turkey towards Azerbaijan has not changed. We just wonder whether
    there are still naive people in Baku, who believe this poorly
    disguised lie. It appears that for persistence of Armenian-Turkish
    negotiations Erdogan has to sacrifice Azerbaijan, while Armenia has to
    keep from demanding Barack Obama to use the term `genocide' in his
    April 24 address. On the whole, it could have been worse. Before
    referring to Armenian concessions, it should be reminded that Turkey
    has set several conditions before Azerbaijan, only after whose
    execution the Azerbaijani-Turkish dialogue can continue. Among them we
    find introduction of visa-free regime (not welcomed by Baku), official
    recognition of independence of Northern Cyprus, reduction of gas
    prices, etc. Azerbaijani politicians prefer not to talk about this,
    trying to shift the fault of all their foreign policy failures onto
    Armenia.

    As for Armenian concessions, Barak Obama in any case will think of a
    new euphemism in order to avoid the term `genocide' and not to push
    away Turkey for good and all. And because exclusively the Armenian
    Diaspora deals with this issue, the Armenian President can rightfully
    say that the Republic of Armenia does not specifically require
    anything from the U.S. President or the Congress. But international
    recognition of the Armenian Genocide and its consequences are one of
    the trends of the foreign policy of Armenia and nobody has the right
    to interfere in what and how Yerevan does.

    Let us note that in this process risks are greater for Turkey than for
    Armenia. Ratification of the Protocols may lead to special nation-wide
    elections, in which Islamists may lose. The military and nationalists
    will come to power, which is much worse for Yerevan than the Erdogan
    government, although when it comes to Turkey it is useless to think of
    what is good or bad for Armenia. Simply Erdogan is the lesser of two
    evils. Or maybe he is not? In any case opposition is against
    normalization of relations and opening of the border in particular.
    And if by and large it is all the same to Armenia what will happen to
    the boundary, for Ankara it is in some way another advantage in the
    negotiations for EU integration. The advantage is, however, indistinct
    especially in the light of recent statements by Angela Merkel and
    Nicolas Sarkozy. Anyway, the Turkish parliament cannot but ratify the
    Protocols, otherwise the ruling party in Turkey will be reminded of
    the threats against the Armenians, the Cyprus problem and many other
    things. In short, the Protocols will be ratified no matter we like it
    or not, and the parties interested in this `international project'
    will begin a new phase: implementation of the items of the Protocols.
    And this phase will be much harder than signing or ratification. The
    real `auction' will begin just then. But all this will take place
    after April 24, although we might also be mistaken. If the talks in
    Washington go as scheduled by the United States, ratification might
    take place on April 22 or 23, on the anniversary of promulgation of
    the Armenian-Turkish agreement.

    Karine Ter-Sahakyan / PanARMENIAN News
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