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'FULL STOP' TO KARABAKH SETTLEMENT TO BE PUT IN MAY
news.az
April 13 2010
Azerbaijan
Rasim Musabeyov News.Az interviews Azerbaijani political scientist
Rasim Musabeyov.
Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan has met Armenian President Sargsyan
on the sidelines of the nuclear security summit in Washington. What
did you expect from this meeting?
I think we could expect nothing from this meeting other than a
declaration that Turkish-Armenian dialogue would continue. And I
think the Americans are interested in keeping up the appearance of
the process of Turkish-Armenian reconciliation. Turkey's Erdogan and
Armenia's Sargsyan may make a statement in this regard, but I did
not expect any real achievements in the normalization of relations
between these countries.
May Turkey and Armenia sign any document for appearances' sake,
for example, on their commitment to overcoming their differences?
What would this change? Such documents are not usually signed. At
best, Erdogan and Sargsyan will tell the press that they had a
substantial talk, that the process will continue and that everyone
wants this. That's all. But the most serious thing is that today the
proposals of the OSCE Minsk Group, that is the updated version of the
Madrid principles, are on the table and this is the main issue. I think
the main issue for Armenians is that Turkey could curb Azerbaijan if
Yerevan says 'no' to the Madrid principles or protracts the negotiation
process because Azerbaijan is growing impatient.
In other words, if the Armenian side rejects the Madrid principles,
will Azerbaijan be able to move to radical steps?
It's not only a question of a major war. For example, in response to
Armenia's unwillingness to accept the principles, Azerbaijan could buy
30 new military helicopters, planes and rockets. This could cause
a serious change in the military balance or Turkey may transfer
something of this kind to us.
Turkey has persuaded Baku that Erdogan will promote the basic
principles of the Karabakh conflict settlement during his visit to
the USA. What are the chances of success?
I think the Armenians will protract this issue until the end
of April, probably the end of May. But they should be shown the
reality, which is: the United States will not recognize the 'Armenian
genocide', Turkey will not open its border, the economic situation
is deteriorating and, in these conditions, no additional loans are
issued and Azerbaijan continues increasing its military strength,
while Armenia has no means to do so and no links with Russia to do
it either. Overall, the situation should mature. And I think the full
stop will be put in May.
What will Sargsyan's agreement to the basic principles be like,
considering the strong pressure from both the public and the Armenian
diaspora?
On the whole, Sargsyan may agree with the Madrid principles but he
won't sign this document and he will suggest moving on to sign an
agreement. It's like this: first, the principles were to be set in
a framework agreement, after which work would start on a major peace
treaty. It's not the framework agreement but the major peace treaty
that will be implemented, so Sargsyan can say, let's not sign the
framework agreement, let's see how things look in the treaty. This
simply defers the issues on which there are differences to a later
stage, while the process continues. I do not rule out this option.
Is the use of force to solve the conflict realistic?
Certainly, this option cannot be ruled out either but I do not
expect it. I think if there is no progress or at least the illusion
of progress, Azerbaijan will take action to raise impressive armed
forces. At least this would be reasonable reaction. We have the
opportunity and the money to do it.
news.az
April 13 2010
Azerbaijan
Rasim Musabeyov News.Az interviews Azerbaijani political scientist
Rasim Musabeyov.
Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan has met Armenian President Sargsyan
on the sidelines of the nuclear security summit in Washington. What
did you expect from this meeting?
I think we could expect nothing from this meeting other than a
declaration that Turkish-Armenian dialogue would continue. And I
think the Americans are interested in keeping up the appearance of
the process of Turkish-Armenian reconciliation. Turkey's Erdogan and
Armenia's Sargsyan may make a statement in this regard, but I did
not expect any real achievements in the normalization of relations
between these countries.
May Turkey and Armenia sign any document for appearances' sake,
for example, on their commitment to overcoming their differences?
What would this change? Such documents are not usually signed. At
best, Erdogan and Sargsyan will tell the press that they had a
substantial talk, that the process will continue and that everyone
wants this. That's all. But the most serious thing is that today the
proposals of the OSCE Minsk Group, that is the updated version of the
Madrid principles, are on the table and this is the main issue. I think
the main issue for Armenians is that Turkey could curb Azerbaijan if
Yerevan says 'no' to the Madrid principles or protracts the negotiation
process because Azerbaijan is growing impatient.
In other words, if the Armenian side rejects the Madrid principles,
will Azerbaijan be able to move to radical steps?
It's not only a question of a major war. For example, in response to
Armenia's unwillingness to accept the principles, Azerbaijan could buy
30 new military helicopters, planes and rockets. This could cause
a serious change in the military balance or Turkey may transfer
something of this kind to us.
Turkey has persuaded Baku that Erdogan will promote the basic
principles of the Karabakh conflict settlement during his visit to
the USA. What are the chances of success?
I think the Armenians will protract this issue until the end
of April, probably the end of May. But they should be shown the
reality, which is: the United States will not recognize the 'Armenian
genocide', Turkey will not open its border, the economic situation
is deteriorating and, in these conditions, no additional loans are
issued and Azerbaijan continues increasing its military strength,
while Armenia has no means to do so and no links with Russia to do
it either. Overall, the situation should mature. And I think the full
stop will be put in May.
What will Sargsyan's agreement to the basic principles be like,
considering the strong pressure from both the public and the Armenian
diaspora?
On the whole, Sargsyan may agree with the Madrid principles but he
won't sign this document and he will suggest moving on to sign an
agreement. It's like this: first, the principles were to be set in
a framework agreement, after which work would start on a major peace
treaty. It's not the framework agreement but the major peace treaty
that will be implemented, so Sargsyan can say, let's not sign the
framework agreement, let's see how things look in the treaty. This
simply defers the issues on which there are differences to a later
stage, while the process continues. I do not rule out this option.
Is the use of force to solve the conflict realistic?
Certainly, this option cannot be ruled out either but I do not
expect it. I think if there is no progress or at least the illusion
of progress, Azerbaijan will take action to raise impressive armed
forces. At least this would be reasonable reaction. We have the
opportunity and the money to do it.