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Eurasia Review
April 17 2010
Robert Kocharian And Armenian Politics: Now You See Me, Now You Don't
Saturday, April 17, 2010
By LINKS
High profile visits by Robert Kocharian to Iran and France, and public
criticism of the economic policies pursued by the government of his
successor as president of Armenia, have increased speculation about
his political future. However, whilst Kocharian does not want to be
either forgotten or ignored, since he has interests he wants to
protect, it does not necessarily mean he wants to come back to
Armenian frontline politics soon.
Robert Kocharian came to power in Armenia in 1997, first as a Prime
Minister, and shortly afterwards as president in circumstances that
were far from normal. From his power base in Nagorno Karabakh he was
able to undermine the power and legitimacy of Levon Ter Petrossian,
finally forcing him to resign in 1998 for allegedly trying to sell out
on the future of Karabakh.
During his period as President from 1998 to 2008 Armenia saw rapid
economic growth that greatly improved the standard of living of the
people and earned it the title of a Caucasus economic tiger.
Politically however the country became much the poorer. In 1999 a
violent incident in the Armenian parliament resulted in the death of
the prime Minister and the speaker of Parliament and other political
leaders, seriously decapitating the Armenian political elite. Under
Kocharian, democratic freedoms became increasingly restricted and all
elections held under Kocharian were criticised in one way or another
by international monitors. Kocharian's final act, that of overseeing
the election of his successor was marred with further bloodshed as
police and demonstrators battled each other on the main streets of
Yerevan amidst accusations of election fraud, leaving ten people dead.
However, Kocharian abided by the constitution and left office when his
two terms ended. There was lot of speculation that he may change the
constitution to allow himself a third term, as happened in Azerbaijan
recently, or that he would re-invent himself as Prime Minister, as
happened in Russia with Vladimir Putin. To his credit he did neither.
Speculation however continues as to his political future, and this has
increased in recent weeks after he went on high profile overseas
visits to Iran and France, and following several public
pronouncements, some of which were critical of the policies of the
current government.
Kocharian's power base is a tripod: his control over `Prosperous
Armenia' party, a junior coalition party in government; his influence
over certain oligarchs and business movers and shakers who prospered
during his time in office, and influence over some of the Karabakh
clans, whose remit now extends well into the Yerevan establishment.
The relationship between Kocharian and his successor and current
President, Serzh Sargsyan was pivotal in securing Kocharian the
presidency initially, and in his maintaining control of power
subsequently. Sargsyan is however his own man, specific in style,
cautious in approach, but equally able to think in a radical fashion
when necessary.
What than has prompted Kocharian's recent outbursts? There are two
plausible reasons. The first is that Serzh Sargsyan's Prime Minister,
Tigran Sargsyan has been pushing for some long overdue economic
reforms, as well as trying to clip the wings of some of the oligarchs
close to Kocharian. The second is that Kocharian may have differences
with the President over the foreign policy being pursued, particularly
the attempts to normalise relations with Turkey, and to solve the
Karabakh issue. A proof that Kocharian is still an important player on
the latter was the meeting he had with the US Co-Chair of the OSCE
Minsk process facilitating the peace negotiations on Karabakh, Robert
Bradtke, a few days ago.
Kocharian may not be interested in a full comeback in Armenian
politics, yet. But he certainly does not want to be either forgotten
or ignored. He is therefore likely to pop up every now and then to
make sure that he doesn't.
Source: LINKS is a British non governmental organisation working for
the peaceful resolution of conflicts and in support of democracy and
sustainable development in societies in transition, through dialogue
and innovative initiatives.
http://www.eurasiareview.com/2010/04 /robert-kocharian-and-armenian-politics.html
April 17 2010
Robert Kocharian And Armenian Politics: Now You See Me, Now You Don't
Saturday, April 17, 2010
By LINKS
High profile visits by Robert Kocharian to Iran and France, and public
criticism of the economic policies pursued by the government of his
successor as president of Armenia, have increased speculation about
his political future. However, whilst Kocharian does not want to be
either forgotten or ignored, since he has interests he wants to
protect, it does not necessarily mean he wants to come back to
Armenian frontline politics soon.
Robert Kocharian came to power in Armenia in 1997, first as a Prime
Minister, and shortly afterwards as president in circumstances that
were far from normal. From his power base in Nagorno Karabakh he was
able to undermine the power and legitimacy of Levon Ter Petrossian,
finally forcing him to resign in 1998 for allegedly trying to sell out
on the future of Karabakh.
During his period as President from 1998 to 2008 Armenia saw rapid
economic growth that greatly improved the standard of living of the
people and earned it the title of a Caucasus economic tiger.
Politically however the country became much the poorer. In 1999 a
violent incident in the Armenian parliament resulted in the death of
the prime Minister and the speaker of Parliament and other political
leaders, seriously decapitating the Armenian political elite. Under
Kocharian, democratic freedoms became increasingly restricted and all
elections held under Kocharian were criticised in one way or another
by international monitors. Kocharian's final act, that of overseeing
the election of his successor was marred with further bloodshed as
police and demonstrators battled each other on the main streets of
Yerevan amidst accusations of election fraud, leaving ten people dead.
However, Kocharian abided by the constitution and left office when his
two terms ended. There was lot of speculation that he may change the
constitution to allow himself a third term, as happened in Azerbaijan
recently, or that he would re-invent himself as Prime Minister, as
happened in Russia with Vladimir Putin. To his credit he did neither.
Speculation however continues as to his political future, and this has
increased in recent weeks after he went on high profile overseas
visits to Iran and France, and following several public
pronouncements, some of which were critical of the policies of the
current government.
Kocharian's power base is a tripod: his control over `Prosperous
Armenia' party, a junior coalition party in government; his influence
over certain oligarchs and business movers and shakers who prospered
during his time in office, and influence over some of the Karabakh
clans, whose remit now extends well into the Yerevan establishment.
The relationship between Kocharian and his successor and current
President, Serzh Sargsyan was pivotal in securing Kocharian the
presidency initially, and in his maintaining control of power
subsequently. Sargsyan is however his own man, specific in style,
cautious in approach, but equally able to think in a radical fashion
when necessary.
What than has prompted Kocharian's recent outbursts? There are two
plausible reasons. The first is that Serzh Sargsyan's Prime Minister,
Tigran Sargsyan has been pushing for some long overdue economic
reforms, as well as trying to clip the wings of some of the oligarchs
close to Kocharian. The second is that Kocharian may have differences
with the President over the foreign policy being pursued, particularly
the attempts to normalise relations with Turkey, and to solve the
Karabakh issue. A proof that Kocharian is still an important player on
the latter was the meeting he had with the US Co-Chair of the OSCE
Minsk process facilitating the peace negotiations on Karabakh, Robert
Bradtke, a few days ago.
Kocharian may not be interested in a full comeback in Armenian
politics, yet. But he certainly does not want to be either forgotten
or ignored. He is therefore likely to pop up every now and then to
make sure that he doesn't.
Source: LINKS is a British non governmental organisation working for
the peaceful resolution of conflicts and in support of democracy and
sustainable development in societies in transition, through dialogue
and innovative initiatives.
http://www.eurasiareview.com/2010/04 /robert-kocharian-and-armenian-politics.html