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  • BAKU: Karabakh Status Remains 'Main Problem'

    KARABAKH STATUS REMAINS 'MAIN PROBLEM'
    Leyla Tagiyeva

    news.az
    April 27 2010
    Azerbaijan

    Stephan H. Astourian News.Az interviews Stephan H. Astourian, Ph.D.,
    executive director of the Armenian Studies Program at the University
    of California, Berkeley.

    Are you satisfied with President Obama's speech to the Armenian
    community on 24 April?

    In view of the current international efforts to bring some form
    of understanding and communication between Armenia and Turkey, I
    did not expect that President Obama would use the word 'genocide'
    to characterize the 1915-23 events. In this sense, I was not
    disappointed. In substance and as a person, however, he is already
    referring implicitly to the Armenian Genocide.

    What are the prospects for the ratification of the two protocols
    between Armenia and Turkey?

    As the Republic of Turkey has now made the ratification of the
    protocols contingent on substantial progress with regard to the
    Mountainous Karabakh [Nagorno-Karabakh] issue, by which it means that
    control of some of the provinces surrounding Mountainous Karabakh
    should be handed over to Azerbaijan, I do not foresee ratification in
    the short to medium term. I doubt such progress will take place soon.

    Armenia says it intends to normalize relations with Turkey without
    any preconditions and at the same time tries to have the 1915 events
    recognized as genocide. Don't you see a contradictions in this?

    The protocols do not mention that Armenia should not pursue recognition
    of the Armenian Genocide internationally. As a result, I do not see
    any contradiction. What the protocols mention is the creation of a
    'sub-commission on the historical dimension to implement a dialogue
    with the aim to restore mutual confidence between the two nations,
    including an impartial scientific examination of the historical records
    and archive to define existing problems and formulate recommendations,
    in which Armenian, Turkish as well as Swiss and other international
    experts shall take part.' This statement does not negate the occurrence
    of the Armenian Genocide.

    How do you explain Armenia's rejection of Iranian mediation on the
    Karabakh settlement?

    I am not quite sure there is a definitive and authoritative Armenian
    position regarding Iranian mediation. If there is, I am not privy to
    the reasons why Armenia might not favour Iranian mediation. However,
    the Mountainous Karabakh issue has such implications that it is
    unlikely any single regional power can solve it. This is why the
    co-chairs of the OSCE's Minsk Group are up to now the main conduit for
    negotiations. On the other hand, there is no doubt that Iran has good
    reasons to be interested in any resolution of the Karabakh conflict,
    since some of the provinces surrounding Mountainous Karabakh are
    contiguous to its territory, since any deployment of international
    peacekeepers might affect its own security, and since it was involved
    in conflict resolution as early as 1992. If Turkey, a party to the
    conflict of course, wishes to join the co-chairs of the OSCE's Minsk
    Group, there is no reason, from Iran's perspective naturally, that
    it should not be involved in the resolution of this issue.

    There is an opinion that it would be easier to solve the Karabakh
    conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia if there were no interruption
    from the Armenian diaspora, who do not accept any compromises. How
    would you comment on this point of view?

    The Armenian diaspora is in no position to determine the policies of
    Armenia and of the 'Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh' [the inverted commas
    here have been included by News.Az] with regard to this conflict. The
    dichotomy between a 'reasonable' Armenia and an 'extremist' Armenian
    diaspora is a theme that emerged in both Armenia and Turkey in the
    mid-1990s. The then Armenian leadership wished to dissociate itself
    from the diaspora. Turkey has been using this theme until now.

    Overall, this dichotomy has little analytic relevance and it is my
    sense that the possibility of resolving the Karabakh problem has
    little to do with the diaspora.

    How realistic is progress on the Karabakh settlement any time soon?

    Progress in solving the Karabakh issue appears to depend on a number of
    problems. The status of the 'Nagorno- Karabakh Republic' [the inverted
    commas here have been included by News.Az], and how and when it will be
    determined, seems to me to be the main problem. Linkage with Armenia
    through the Kelbajar and Lachin corridors appears to be the second
    problem. What will be the size and status of these corridors? Will
    there be international peacekeepers and, if so, which peacekeepers? The
    overall sustainability of the settlement and the security of whatever
    entity is formed in Mountainous Karabakh is another important issue. In
    other matters, whereas the question of the Azerbaijani refugees seems
    to have been treated, I am a bit unclear about the issue of the more
    than 350,000 Armenian refugees from Soviet Azerbaijan, as I do not know
    whether the pogroms and losses they faced are part of the negotiations.

    At this point, the bellicose statements coming from President Aliyev
    and his administration do not contribute to building trust. In the same
    vein, statements to the effect that Zangezur is Azerbaijani territory,
    that Yerevan is the capital of Western Azerbaijan and that Armenia is
    actually Western Azerbaijan might not be helpful, even if they were to
    amount to nothing but psychological operations. In this context, and
    without knowing the details of the ongoing negotiations, I am not sure
    the Azerbaijani government wants to settle this issue quickly. I wonder
    if focusing the attention of the Azerbaijani masses against Armenia is
    a way of deflecting from their concerns about social, economic, and
    political difficulties. In this same context, I also wonder why the
    'Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh' [the inverted commas here have been
    included by News.Az] would relinquish a buffer zone that ensures its
    survival and gives it some strategic depth and time to better protect
    its territory in case of war. Bar significantly new arrangements
    among the Minsk Group co-chairs that I cannot predict at this time,
    I am not overly optimistic about a quick resolution of this conflict.

    Stephan H. Astourian, Ph.D., is executive director of the Armenian
    Studies Program at the University of California, Berkeley and assistant
    adjunct professor at the Department of History.
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