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ON THE ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT'S DECISION TO FREEZE THE CURRENT ARMENIA-TURKEY PROCESS
Vartan Oskanian
The Civilitas Foundation
Monday, 26 April 2010 13:47
It was clear from the beginning that a prolonged presentation of the
desirable as real is not sustainable, and that the government would
have to finally acknowledge reality.
I am astonished by two things, however. First, the government is
openly acknowledging that for one whole year they watched as Turkey
placed preconditions before them, Turkey exploited the process for
its own benefit, and they not only tolerated this, but continuously
insisted that this is not happening and that this whole process is
a big success and an unprecedented diplomatic victory.
Second, if there were half a dozen possible exit strategies from
this situation - from doing nothing to revoking Armenia's signature -
the government has chosen the option least beneficial to us. Turkey
no longer has an obligation to open the border before the Karabakh
conflict is resolved which is what Turkey had wanted all along. The
Armenian side did that which is most desirable for Turkey: neither
ratified the protocols nor revoked them thus giving Turkey the
opportunity to continue to remain actively engaged in the Karabakh
process.
For a whole year, the authorities rejected the problems in the
Armenia-Turkey process and responded to all criticism by insisting
that all is well. Today, in fact, we see that they did understand
that things were not proceeding as desired, yet they prolonged the
process for more than a year, hoping that it would be possible to
avoid accepting the truthfulness of the criticism.
Today, I want to invite attention to the fact that the same problems
are inherent in the Karabakh process. In response to my criticism,
they continue to insist that all is well, and there are no dangerous
developments.
But this is no time to gloat. Nor is this about stubbornly insisting
on the absolute truthfulness of one's own position. The facts cannot
be ignored. The negotiations are proceeding unfavorably. The situation
must be corrected, even if that requires making clear policy changes.
The government must boldly assess the situation, and acknowledge its
seriousness so that we will not find ourselves in the same situation
regarding Karabakh.
But for that, there first must be acknowledgement and acceptance that
there are in fact problems, there must be an attempt to identify their
root causes, and no longer resort to the tradition of negating reality.
I am also worried about another trend. For two years, various
government representatives applauded the Armenia-Turkey process and
ignored all the problems. They raised public expectations about a
speedy normalization of relations and opening of the border. And
when none of that happened for reasons that were obvious from the
beginning, there is an opposite and equally extreme reaction. The
same public relations machine is subsumed by anti-Turkish propaganda.
Various government representatives have adopted extremist stereotypical
positions. Incautious policies all-around have brought us to a
dead-end in Armenia-Turkey relations and this new tendency can further
deteriorate an already-delicate situation, and render impossible
necessary future positive developments.
Vartan Oskanian
The Civilitas Foundation
Monday, 26 April 2010 13:47
It was clear from the beginning that a prolonged presentation of the
desirable as real is not sustainable, and that the government would
have to finally acknowledge reality.
I am astonished by two things, however. First, the government is
openly acknowledging that for one whole year they watched as Turkey
placed preconditions before them, Turkey exploited the process for
its own benefit, and they not only tolerated this, but continuously
insisted that this is not happening and that this whole process is
a big success and an unprecedented diplomatic victory.
Second, if there were half a dozen possible exit strategies from
this situation - from doing nothing to revoking Armenia's signature -
the government has chosen the option least beneficial to us. Turkey
no longer has an obligation to open the border before the Karabakh
conflict is resolved which is what Turkey had wanted all along. The
Armenian side did that which is most desirable for Turkey: neither
ratified the protocols nor revoked them thus giving Turkey the
opportunity to continue to remain actively engaged in the Karabakh
process.
For a whole year, the authorities rejected the problems in the
Armenia-Turkey process and responded to all criticism by insisting
that all is well. Today, in fact, we see that they did understand
that things were not proceeding as desired, yet they prolonged the
process for more than a year, hoping that it would be possible to
avoid accepting the truthfulness of the criticism.
Today, I want to invite attention to the fact that the same problems
are inherent in the Karabakh process. In response to my criticism,
they continue to insist that all is well, and there are no dangerous
developments.
But this is no time to gloat. Nor is this about stubbornly insisting
on the absolute truthfulness of one's own position. The facts cannot
be ignored. The negotiations are proceeding unfavorably. The situation
must be corrected, even if that requires making clear policy changes.
The government must boldly assess the situation, and acknowledge its
seriousness so that we will not find ourselves in the same situation
regarding Karabakh.
But for that, there first must be acknowledgement and acceptance that
there are in fact problems, there must be an attempt to identify their
root causes, and no longer resort to the tradition of negating reality.
I am also worried about another trend. For two years, various
government representatives applauded the Armenia-Turkey process and
ignored all the problems. They raised public expectations about a
speedy normalization of relations and opening of the border. And
when none of that happened for reasons that were obvious from the
beginning, there is an opposite and equally extreme reaction. The
same public relations machine is subsumed by anti-Turkish propaganda.
Various government representatives have adopted extremist stereotypical
positions. Incautious policies all-around have brought us to a
dead-end in Armenia-Turkey relations and this new tendency can further
deteriorate an already-delicate situation, and render impossible
necessary future positive developments.