Tweet
CAMERON TALKS TURKEY, BUT EU MEMBERSHIP REMAINS ELUSIVE FOR ANKARA
International Business Times
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/39175/20100728/turkey-eu.htm
July 28 2010
On his recent trip to Turkey, the British Prime Minister David
Cameron has aggressively campaigned for the country's membership
into the European Union (EU), attacking the opposition as misguided
and/or prejudicial.
Cameron has vowed he would "fight" for Turkey's membership and that
he is "angry" at the stalled progress. The British head of state
declared that with its unique geographical and cultural position,
Turkey could become an invaluable link between Europe and the Middle
East, including Iran.
In a speech before the Turkish Parliament in Ankara, Cameron praised
Turkey as "vital for our economy, vital for our security and vital
for our diplomacy."
As Cameron has also alluded to, Turkey has the second largest army
in NATO, and has served as an important ally in the war in Afghanistan.
Turkey is also a crucial conduit for oil and gas pipelines heading
towards Europe.
Cameron is also seeking to establish better trade links between
Britain and Turkey, with the strategy of doubling their value over
the next five years.
While Mr. Cameron may indeed genuinely want Turkey in the EU club -
Britain, after all, has long advocated for its inclusion - his words
may mean little to the 27-member bloc, many of whom, particularly
France and Germany, actively oppose Turkey's entry.
Both Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and Nicolas Sarkozy, the
French president, have espoused that Turkey be given a "privileged
partnership" with the EU, but nothing more.
Turkey has officially been a candidate for EU membership since December
1999 and accession negotiations commenced in October 2005.
But, like a jilted bride, Turkey remains on the outside looking in -
and for a whole host of reasons.
"There are still considerable obstacles to Turkey's accession," said
Neil Shearing, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics
Ltd. in London. "While Mr. Cameron's intervention will obviously be
welcomed by Ankara, entry remains years, more likely decades, away."
For one thing, Turkey is a historic enemy of EU member Greece and has
refused to fully recognize the government of another EU member, Cyprus.
Turkey also has a long and poor record on human rights - its treatment
of women, of political prisoners, and of the restive Kurdish minority
in the Southeastern part of the country, the state's prosecution of
certain human rights defenders, writers and journalists, among other
things, all violate EU values.
While Turkey has indeed instituted some reforms - for example,
abolishing the death penalty, imprisoning senior military and police
officers for committing acts of torture, and the allowance of Kurdish
language in radio and television broadcasts - changes have been too
few and too slow for most EU observers.
Another particularly contentious point that seems to have no hope
of resolution lies with Turkey's activities during World War I when
up to two million Armenians are believed to have been murdered in
a state-sponsored mass extermination program. Turkish governments
ever since has refused to even acknowledge the killings, much less
apologize for them.
Robert C. Holderith, president & chief executive officer of Emerging
Global Shares, said another important reason for blocking Turkey is
because they have refused to support the EU's sanctions against their
neighbor and trading partner, Iran.
"It really has more to do with politics than economics," Holderith
said. "Bulgaria and Romania are both EU members, but they are emerging
markets and they are, by many measures, poorer than Turkey."
Holderith believes that while Cameron may indeed want to expand the
U.K.'s trading relationship with Turkey, the British leader might
actually be acting on behalf of the United States, which wants to stay
out of this affair, but clearly wants Turkey to remain a strategic
military partner in NATO in Iran's backyard.
Perhaps the least-openly discussed grievance against Turkey is that
it is a large and overwhelmingly Muslim nation.
Turkey is a nation of more than 72-million, with two-thirds of the
population under 35. As such, some European critics fear that Turkey's
entry into the EU might prompt an influx of more immigrants into
European nations which are already struggling with high unemployment
and budget crises.
To partially offset the fears of Britons and Europeans who oppose
further immigration, Cameron suggested that the UK would impose
provisional restrictions on the right of Turks to live and work in the
UK after it joined the EU -- as Britain currently does with Bulgarians
and Romanians.
But with its high birth rate, Turkey is projected to overtake Germany's
as the most populous state in Europe by 2020.
Given their large population, a Turkish presence in the EU would
vastly change the make-up of the European Parliament.
"Turkey would automatically have great influence in the [European]
Parliament, second only to Germany, by strength of numbers alone,"
Holdedrith said. "That Parliament has the power to make trade laws and
agreements. It's a big strategic problem for those who oppose Turkey."
The Turkish economy - which would be the sixth largest in Europe if it
were formally included - has actually performed quite well this year,
Turkish GDP surged 11.7 percent year-on-year in the first quarter
of 2010 -- the best pace since the second quarter of 2004 -- after
posting a 6 percent advance in the fourth quarter of 2009.
Apparently, Turkey has so far been unhurt by growing economic woes
in Western Europe, its biggest export market. (The Turkish economy,
however, shrank 4.7 percent in 2009 - including a huge a 14-plus
percent drop in the first quarter of that year - another victim of
the global recession).
Trade Minister Nihat Ergun has forecast that Turkey's economy could
grow as much as 8 percent in 2010, according to Turkey's Ihlas News
Agency. (The International Monetary Fund expects Turkey to expand by
a more modest 6.3 percent in 2010.)
Turkey boasts a tightly regulated banking system which has avoided the
viral excesses of the global financial crisis. Unemployment is rather
high, at 13.7 percent, but the Ankara government expects it to fall.
Holderith also notes that the Turkish Lira currently trades at about
half the value of the Euro.
"If you want to buy a Mercedes Benz, it'll cost you twice as much,
all things being equal, if you're in Turkey," he said.
"The equalization of these two currencies - however, that would work
-- could create an opportunity for the Germans, French and British
to be able to sell to the Turks at a lesser price."
Although this would benefit European manufacturers, Germany and France
probably feel the trade-off is not worth the risk.
While the Turkish economy is accelerating, Shearing cautions that
Turkey remains a relatively poor county and, if it were allowed to
join the EU, would likely need substantial EU structural funds -
which would not be politically popular.
To illustrate the status of the Turkish economy, Holderith explains
that his company defines 'emerging market' as an economy with a GDP
per capita of between $2,000 and $20,000. Turkey is currently at
about $13,000. (By comparison, the U.S. is at $46,000, France and
Germany are each in the low $40,000s, while China is at $8,000).
However, Holderith believes Turkey will eventually join the EU -
though it may take up to the years.
"These Western European countries will eventually realize that they
need to be closely tied with the faster-growing economies in their
region," he said.
From: A. Papazian
International Business Times
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/39175/20100728/turkey-eu.htm
July 28 2010
On his recent trip to Turkey, the British Prime Minister David
Cameron has aggressively campaigned for the country's membership
into the European Union (EU), attacking the opposition as misguided
and/or prejudicial.
Cameron has vowed he would "fight" for Turkey's membership and that
he is "angry" at the stalled progress. The British head of state
declared that with its unique geographical and cultural position,
Turkey could become an invaluable link between Europe and the Middle
East, including Iran.
In a speech before the Turkish Parliament in Ankara, Cameron praised
Turkey as "vital for our economy, vital for our security and vital
for our diplomacy."
As Cameron has also alluded to, Turkey has the second largest army
in NATO, and has served as an important ally in the war in Afghanistan.
Turkey is also a crucial conduit for oil and gas pipelines heading
towards Europe.
Cameron is also seeking to establish better trade links between
Britain and Turkey, with the strategy of doubling their value over
the next five years.
While Mr. Cameron may indeed genuinely want Turkey in the EU club -
Britain, after all, has long advocated for its inclusion - his words
may mean little to the 27-member bloc, many of whom, particularly
France and Germany, actively oppose Turkey's entry.
Both Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and Nicolas Sarkozy, the
French president, have espoused that Turkey be given a "privileged
partnership" with the EU, but nothing more.
Turkey has officially been a candidate for EU membership since December
1999 and accession negotiations commenced in October 2005.
But, like a jilted bride, Turkey remains on the outside looking in -
and for a whole host of reasons.
"There are still considerable obstacles to Turkey's accession," said
Neil Shearing, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics
Ltd. in London. "While Mr. Cameron's intervention will obviously be
welcomed by Ankara, entry remains years, more likely decades, away."
For one thing, Turkey is a historic enemy of EU member Greece and has
refused to fully recognize the government of another EU member, Cyprus.
Turkey also has a long and poor record on human rights - its treatment
of women, of political prisoners, and of the restive Kurdish minority
in the Southeastern part of the country, the state's prosecution of
certain human rights defenders, writers and journalists, among other
things, all violate EU values.
While Turkey has indeed instituted some reforms - for example,
abolishing the death penalty, imprisoning senior military and police
officers for committing acts of torture, and the allowance of Kurdish
language in radio and television broadcasts - changes have been too
few and too slow for most EU observers.
Another particularly contentious point that seems to have no hope
of resolution lies with Turkey's activities during World War I when
up to two million Armenians are believed to have been murdered in
a state-sponsored mass extermination program. Turkish governments
ever since has refused to even acknowledge the killings, much less
apologize for them.
Robert C. Holderith, president & chief executive officer of Emerging
Global Shares, said another important reason for blocking Turkey is
because they have refused to support the EU's sanctions against their
neighbor and trading partner, Iran.
"It really has more to do with politics than economics," Holderith
said. "Bulgaria and Romania are both EU members, but they are emerging
markets and they are, by many measures, poorer than Turkey."
Holderith believes that while Cameron may indeed want to expand the
U.K.'s trading relationship with Turkey, the British leader might
actually be acting on behalf of the United States, which wants to stay
out of this affair, but clearly wants Turkey to remain a strategic
military partner in NATO in Iran's backyard.
Perhaps the least-openly discussed grievance against Turkey is that
it is a large and overwhelmingly Muslim nation.
Turkey is a nation of more than 72-million, with two-thirds of the
population under 35. As such, some European critics fear that Turkey's
entry into the EU might prompt an influx of more immigrants into
European nations which are already struggling with high unemployment
and budget crises.
To partially offset the fears of Britons and Europeans who oppose
further immigration, Cameron suggested that the UK would impose
provisional restrictions on the right of Turks to live and work in the
UK after it joined the EU -- as Britain currently does with Bulgarians
and Romanians.
But with its high birth rate, Turkey is projected to overtake Germany's
as the most populous state in Europe by 2020.
Given their large population, a Turkish presence in the EU would
vastly change the make-up of the European Parliament.
"Turkey would automatically have great influence in the [European]
Parliament, second only to Germany, by strength of numbers alone,"
Holdedrith said. "That Parliament has the power to make trade laws and
agreements. It's a big strategic problem for those who oppose Turkey."
The Turkish economy - which would be the sixth largest in Europe if it
were formally included - has actually performed quite well this year,
Turkish GDP surged 11.7 percent year-on-year in the first quarter
of 2010 -- the best pace since the second quarter of 2004 -- after
posting a 6 percent advance in the fourth quarter of 2009.
Apparently, Turkey has so far been unhurt by growing economic woes
in Western Europe, its biggest export market. (The Turkish economy,
however, shrank 4.7 percent in 2009 - including a huge a 14-plus
percent drop in the first quarter of that year - another victim of
the global recession).
Trade Minister Nihat Ergun has forecast that Turkey's economy could
grow as much as 8 percent in 2010, according to Turkey's Ihlas News
Agency. (The International Monetary Fund expects Turkey to expand by
a more modest 6.3 percent in 2010.)
Turkey boasts a tightly regulated banking system which has avoided the
viral excesses of the global financial crisis. Unemployment is rather
high, at 13.7 percent, but the Ankara government expects it to fall.
Holderith also notes that the Turkish Lira currently trades at about
half the value of the Euro.
"If you want to buy a Mercedes Benz, it'll cost you twice as much,
all things being equal, if you're in Turkey," he said.
"The equalization of these two currencies - however, that would work
-- could create an opportunity for the Germans, French and British
to be able to sell to the Turks at a lesser price."
Although this would benefit European manufacturers, Germany and France
probably feel the trade-off is not worth the risk.
While the Turkish economy is accelerating, Shearing cautions that
Turkey remains a relatively poor county and, if it were allowed to
join the EU, would likely need substantial EU structural funds -
which would not be politically popular.
To illustrate the status of the Turkish economy, Holderith explains
that his company defines 'emerging market' as an economy with a GDP
per capita of between $2,000 and $20,000. Turkey is currently at
about $13,000. (By comparison, the U.S. is at $46,000, France and
Germany are each in the low $40,000s, while China is at $8,000).
However, Holderith believes Turkey will eventually join the EU -
though it may take up to the years.
"These Western European countries will eventually realize that they
need to be closely tied with the faster-growing economies in their
region," he said.
From: A. Papazian