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  • Kosovo Ruling `Pandora's Box' for Caucasus

    Kosovo Ruling `Pandora's Box' for Caucasus

    States and self-declared republics divided by international court
    ruling that Kosovo's declaration of independence was legal.

    By Karine Ohanian, Shahin Rzayev, Anaid Gogoryan, Nino Kharadze - Caucasus
    CRS Issue 552,
    30 Jul 10

    Politicians in the South Caucasus were stunned by a ruling by the
    International Court of Justice, ICJ, that Kosovo's declaration of
    independence was legal, with one observer saying it opened a Pandora's
    box for the troubled region.

    The South Caucasus, according to most maps, consists of just three
    countries. But there are in addition three self-declared states - all
    of them largely or entirely unrecognised by outside powers.

    The ICJ in The Hague had been asked by the United Nations Security
    Council, acting on a request from Serbia, to decide whether "Is the
    declaration of independence by Kosovo's provisional government in 2008
    was in accordance with international law. The court ruled on July 22
    that the declaration `did not violate general international law".

    The ruling delighted the governments of Abkhazia and South Ossetia,
    which claim independence from Georgia, and that of Nagorny Karabakh,
    the Armenian-controlled territory which according to international law
    is still part of Azerbaijan.

    Like Serbia, which insists that Kosovo legally remains part of its
    territory, Georgia and Azerbaijan were far from pleased.

    `I would not say the principle of territorial integrity retreats into
    second place following the decision by the Hague, but it's a fact that
    the decision has opened a Pandora's box,' Rasim Musabekov, an
    influential political analyst and columnist in Azerbaijan, said. `Now
    separatists of all kinds will leech off this decision.'

    The ICJ specifically stated that its ruling addressed only Kosovo's
    declaration of independence, not the question of independence itself,
    and also that it applied only to the former Serbian province, not to
    other regions of the world.

    However, the reaction in Karabakh, which broke free of Baku's rule in
    a bloody post-Soviet war, more than confirmed Musabekov's concerns.

    `This decision is of the utmost legal, political and moral
    significance, as well as serving as a precedent,' a statement from
    Karabakh's foreign ministry said. `It cannot be limited only to
    Kosovo.'

    Bako Sahakyan, president of the republic, confirmed this belief that
    the precedent should apply to Karabakh, saying, `We will continue our
    efforts to obtain international recognition of the Nagorny Karabakh
    Republic, but now in a new political situation, and there will be new
    developments in our lives.'

    The situation in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Separatist forces in the
    two entities defeated Georgian troops in the early post-Soviet years
    and declared independence. Their aspirations to sovereignty were
    largely ignored until 2008, when Russia intervened to block a Georgian
    attempt to regain control of South Ossetia, and then surprised the
    world by recognising both as independent states.

    Only three countries have followed Moscow's lead. United States
    Secretary of State Hilary Clinton last month upheld the Georgian
    position by referring to Abkhazia and South Ossetia as `occupied'.

    Now the governments of the two republics are hoping the ICJ ruling
    will prompt more countries to recognise them.

    Abkhazian prime minister Sergei Shamba concedes, however, that the
    precedent might not be accepted internationally.

    `In view of the double-standard policies pursued in the West, if
    Abkhazia appealed to The Hague, I couldn't be certain that a similar
    decision would be reached,' he said. `And this is despite the fact
    that we have no fewer - if not more, in fact - historical, legal and
    moral grounds and arguments in favour of recognition.'

    The ICJ's decision will now go to the UN General Assembly for
    discussion. Politicians in South Ossetia hope their own claims to
    independence will be raised in the same forum.

    `Although the international court's decision is only consultative in
    nature, it has created a relevant precedent in international law,'
    deputy foreign minister Kazbulat Tskhovrebov told the South Ossetian
    state news agency Res.

    `In my opinion, such a decision can be seen as indirect recognition of
    Kosovo's independence, and will prompt other countries to recognise
    it. I would like to hope that the declarations of independence by
    South Ossetia and Abkhazia will also be examined within the walls of
    the United Nations, and that we too will have a chance to show that
    South Ossetia's declaration of independence does not violate the
    standards of international law.'

    In Tbilisi, politicians ruled this prospect out completely, saying the
    situation in Kosovo and in their own breakaway territories had nothing
    in common. They insisted that the hundreds of thousands of Georgians
    expelled from Abkhazia and South Ossetia must be given the right to go
    home before the disputes could be resolved.

    According to Akaki Minashvili, chairman of the Georgian parliament's
    foreign relations committee, `These are diametrically opposed
    situations. In Kosovo, the international community intervened to stop
    ethnic cleansing committed by the Milosevic regime against the
    Albanians. In our case, the Russian Federation and occupying armed
    forces committed ethnic cleansing against the Georgians.'

    Minashvili noted that the ICJ ruling said that when the UN Security
    Council had condemned other declarations of independence in the past,
    it was because they resulted from the unlawful use of armed force or
    other grave violations of international law.

    `Russia recognised the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia so
    as to legitimise ethnic cleansing and the alteration of borders,' he
    said.

    If Caucasian leaders took clear stances on the ICJ ruling - hailing it
    as a precedent or denying its relevance to them, according to which
    side they were on - Moscow appeared to be placed in a difficult
    situation.

    On the one hand, Russia has generally upheld the principle of
    territorial integrity, citing this as justification both for its own
    wars in Chechnya and also for backing its ally Serbia's claims on
    Kosovo. On the other, it has recognised the right of Abkhazia and
    South Ossetia to secede from Georgia.

    A carefully-worded statement from the Russian foreign ministry avoided
    mentioning Abkhazia and South Ossetia, saying only that `our position
    on the recognition of Kosovo remains unchanged'.

    The statement argued that the ICJ ruling covered only the legality of
    Kosovo's declaration of independence, and that it `stated specifically
    that it did not consider the wider question of the right of Kosovo to
    separate from Serbia unilaterally'.

    In the circumstances, perhaps the most realistic assessment of the
    significance of the ICJ ruling came from Alfred Grigoryan, a
    68-year-old taxi driver in Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorny
    Karabakh. He expressed a clear-eyed recognition of the differences
    between the South Caucasus and the Balkans.

    `If we were located in Europe, then they'd recognise us as well,' he
    said. `But as things are, we are the only ones interested in our
    conflict, and we must fight for international recognition of our
    independence, just as we fought for independence itself.'

    Karine Ohanyan is a freelancer in Stepanakert, Shahin Rzayev is IWPR
    country director in Azerbaijan, Anaid Gogoryan is a correspondent for
    Chegemskaya Pravda in Sukhum, and Nino Kharadze is a reporter for
    Radio Liberty in Tbilisi.

    http://www.iwpr.net/report-news/kosovo-ruling-%E2%80%9Cpandora%E2%80%99s-box%E2%80%9D-caucasus




    From: A. Papazian
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