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TIME WORKS ON AZERBAIJAN - RUSSIAN DEPUTY
news.az
July 29 2010
Azerbaijan
Sergey Markov News.Az interviews Sergey Markov, deputy of the Russian
State Duma and director of the Russian Institute of Political Studies.
What can you say about the negotiation process on the peaceful
resolution of the Karabakh conflict, in particular, the updated variant
of Madrid principles? Is it possible to say that the negotiation
process has been stalled?
It would be incorrect to say that the negotiation process on the
Karabakh conflict has been stallen since the negotiations have several
goals. First is the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, second, the
prevention of conflict freezing and start of military actions. The
negotiation process has not gone too far on the first point while the
second point is working and there is no war. Therefore, the negotiation
process has not entered a deadlock. It is moving further. As for the
updated variant of Madrid principles I think there will be a crisis
in the negotiation process. The matter is that the shift of powers is
observed in the region, in particular, the increase in Azerbaijanâ~@~Ys
potential. In this situation time is working in Bakuâ~@~Ys favor
though previously it was in Yerevanâ~@~Ys favor, since the latter
benefits from the status quo. Yerevan will probably start searching
some ways of avoiding this crisis though the correlation of powers has
not changed in Azerbaijanâ~@~Ys favor too much. A number of European
politicians believe that the correlation of powers have changed quite
enough for the problem to be settled in Bakuâ~@~Ys favor. Though I
think today there will appear some intentions to form some crisis.
The UN international court in Hague has decided that Kosovo did not
violate the norms of international law by declaring independence. For
the first time international law recognized legitimacy of the
secession of the province of the UN member-state. Meanwhile, Yerevan
states that this precedent should be used for the national interests
of Armenia. Is the application of the Kosovo precedent real in case
with the Nagorno Karabakh issue?
It is absolutely clear that the opinion of the international court
on the Kosovo issue is a great victory of the United States and EU
and a serious victory of those separatist political regimes that
formed in most regions, in particular, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and
Nagorno Karabakh in the post-Soviet area. Naturally, these regimes
will actively refer to the opinion of the Hague court. Meanwhile, it
should be noted that they cannot appeal to the court independently
since the opinion of the Hague court was mostly influenced by the
political pressure of Washington and EU which resulted in Kosovoâ~@~Ys
independence rather than international law. Therefore, I think if
Nagorno Karabakh has appealed to the Hague court, the decision was not
the same like in case with Kosovo. But this precedent will be actively
referred to along with the right of nations for self-determination. In
fact, the Hague court confirmed that the self-proclaimed state will
be able to secede from a country and declare independence.
The temporary status of Nagorno Karabakh and the deployment of
peacekeeping troops in the region are among the key issues in the
updated variant of Madrid principles. Is the presence of Russian
peacekeepers in Nagorno Karabakh possible? Does the deployment of the
Russian peacekeepers in the conflict area meet Moscowâ~@~Ys interests?
Moscow has a contradictory attitude to this issue. On the one hand,
Russia does not want war and it is interested in such difficult
conflicts as Nagorno Karabakh and others to come closer to any
resolution. On the other hand, Moscow is not interested in carrying
any peacekeeping burden, either financial, political or humanitarian.
Nonetheless, Moscow is ready to assume this burden in case there are
definite political goals. That is the guaranteed rejection to resume
war would have become a political goal. Meanwhile, political forces
in Armenia and Azerbaijan treat the situation with responsibility
and war will hardly occur. On the whole, Moscow is ready for the
peacekeeping activity only at the agreement of all parties.
Do you really think that the key to solution of the Karabakh conflict
is in the Kremlin?
I think the key is only in Baku and Yerevan. These countries will
settle the issue. Today no one can make them take any variant of
the conflict solution. Anyway, the situation may change in the case
if geopolitical situation in the region changes cardinally. If this
occurs, there will emerge a new serious trend. It is difficult to
specify the trend but now I can say for sure that time works on
Azerbaijan.
From: A. Papazian
news.az
July 29 2010
Azerbaijan
Sergey Markov News.Az interviews Sergey Markov, deputy of the Russian
State Duma and director of the Russian Institute of Political Studies.
What can you say about the negotiation process on the peaceful
resolution of the Karabakh conflict, in particular, the updated variant
of Madrid principles? Is it possible to say that the negotiation
process has been stalled?
It would be incorrect to say that the negotiation process on the
Karabakh conflict has been stallen since the negotiations have several
goals. First is the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, second, the
prevention of conflict freezing and start of military actions. The
negotiation process has not gone too far on the first point while the
second point is working and there is no war. Therefore, the negotiation
process has not entered a deadlock. It is moving further. As for the
updated variant of Madrid principles I think there will be a crisis
in the negotiation process. The matter is that the shift of powers is
observed in the region, in particular, the increase in Azerbaijanâ~@~Ys
potential. In this situation time is working in Bakuâ~@~Ys favor
though previously it was in Yerevanâ~@~Ys favor, since the latter
benefits from the status quo. Yerevan will probably start searching
some ways of avoiding this crisis though the correlation of powers has
not changed in Azerbaijanâ~@~Ys favor too much. A number of European
politicians believe that the correlation of powers have changed quite
enough for the problem to be settled in Bakuâ~@~Ys favor. Though I
think today there will appear some intentions to form some crisis.
The UN international court in Hague has decided that Kosovo did not
violate the norms of international law by declaring independence. For
the first time international law recognized legitimacy of the
secession of the province of the UN member-state. Meanwhile, Yerevan
states that this precedent should be used for the national interests
of Armenia. Is the application of the Kosovo precedent real in case
with the Nagorno Karabakh issue?
It is absolutely clear that the opinion of the international court
on the Kosovo issue is a great victory of the United States and EU
and a serious victory of those separatist political regimes that
formed in most regions, in particular, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and
Nagorno Karabakh in the post-Soviet area. Naturally, these regimes
will actively refer to the opinion of the Hague court. Meanwhile, it
should be noted that they cannot appeal to the court independently
since the opinion of the Hague court was mostly influenced by the
political pressure of Washington and EU which resulted in Kosovoâ~@~Ys
independence rather than international law. Therefore, I think if
Nagorno Karabakh has appealed to the Hague court, the decision was not
the same like in case with Kosovo. But this precedent will be actively
referred to along with the right of nations for self-determination. In
fact, the Hague court confirmed that the self-proclaimed state will
be able to secede from a country and declare independence.
The temporary status of Nagorno Karabakh and the deployment of
peacekeeping troops in the region are among the key issues in the
updated variant of Madrid principles. Is the presence of Russian
peacekeepers in Nagorno Karabakh possible? Does the deployment of the
Russian peacekeepers in the conflict area meet Moscowâ~@~Ys interests?
Moscow has a contradictory attitude to this issue. On the one hand,
Russia does not want war and it is interested in such difficult
conflicts as Nagorno Karabakh and others to come closer to any
resolution. On the other hand, Moscow is not interested in carrying
any peacekeeping burden, either financial, political or humanitarian.
Nonetheless, Moscow is ready to assume this burden in case there are
definite political goals. That is the guaranteed rejection to resume
war would have become a political goal. Meanwhile, political forces
in Armenia and Azerbaijan treat the situation with responsibility
and war will hardly occur. On the whole, Moscow is ready for the
peacekeeping activity only at the agreement of all parties.
Do you really think that the key to solution of the Karabakh conflict
is in the Kremlin?
I think the key is only in Baku and Yerevan. These countries will
settle the issue. Today no one can make them take any variant of
the conflict solution. Anyway, the situation may change in the case
if geopolitical situation in the region changes cardinally. If this
occurs, there will emerge a new serious trend. It is difficult to
specify the trend but now I can say for sure that time works on
Azerbaijan.
From: A. Papazian