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IMF FORECASTS 4.8% ECONOMIC GROWTH AND 6.2% INFLATION IN ARMENIA IN 2010
ArmInfo
2010-07-28 13:25:00
ArmInfo. The International Monetary Fund forecasts a 4.8% economic
growth and 6.2% inflation in Armenia in 2010, Guillermo Tolosa, IMF
Resident Representative in Armenia, says in an interview with ArmInfo.
He says the IMF specialists made such forecast after the IMF mission
visited the country in May and prepared another review of the economic
situation in Armenia.
He says that after sharp growth in the first quarter the IMF expected
certain slackening of the economic growth rates. Now the growth is
more stable and promises long-term outlook. As a rule, after crisis
economy starts rapidly growing and than the growth rates fall and
economy stabilizes, he says. The data of the National Statistical
Service say GDP in Armenia for 5 months of 2010 grew 8.8% and 6.7%
for 6 months.
G. Tollosa says that almost all sectors of economy are growing except
agriculture where 13.1% decline was recorded because of unfavorable
climate. Economic growth for 2010 is explained with the too low basis
for the same period of 2009 when decline of quite tangible, he says.
G. Tollosa mentions that the IMF has forecasted also inflation fall.
(Inflation for 5 months of 2010 totaled 5.3% and for 6 months - 4.5%).
He says that economists call this a base effect when current
indicators are compared with those for 2009 that were low from the
very beginning. The exchange rate of the Armenian dram and the US
dollar was low as well. Afterwards, world prices started growing and
in March 2009 the Armenian dram devaluated and consumer prices in
Armenia also grew, G. Tollosa recalls. He says that price rise has
already reached the peak and in the second half of 2010 inflation
will be lower than in the first half and there are no prerequisites
for inflation growth for the end of the year.
From: A. Papazian
ArmInfo
2010-07-28 13:25:00
ArmInfo. The International Monetary Fund forecasts a 4.8% economic
growth and 6.2% inflation in Armenia in 2010, Guillermo Tolosa, IMF
Resident Representative in Armenia, says in an interview with ArmInfo.
He says the IMF specialists made such forecast after the IMF mission
visited the country in May and prepared another review of the economic
situation in Armenia.
He says that after sharp growth in the first quarter the IMF expected
certain slackening of the economic growth rates. Now the growth is
more stable and promises long-term outlook. As a rule, after crisis
economy starts rapidly growing and than the growth rates fall and
economy stabilizes, he says. The data of the National Statistical
Service say GDP in Armenia for 5 months of 2010 grew 8.8% and 6.7%
for 6 months.
G. Tollosa says that almost all sectors of economy are growing except
agriculture where 13.1% decline was recorded because of unfavorable
climate. Economic growth for 2010 is explained with the too low basis
for the same period of 2009 when decline of quite tangible, he says.
G. Tollosa mentions that the IMF has forecasted also inflation fall.
(Inflation for 5 months of 2010 totaled 5.3% and for 6 months - 4.5%).
He says that economists call this a base effect when current
indicators are compared with those for 2009 that were low from the
very beginning. The exchange rate of the Armenian dram and the US
dollar was low as well. Afterwards, world prices started growing and
in March 2009 the Armenian dram devaluated and consumer prices in
Armenia also grew, G. Tollosa recalls. He says that price rise has
already reached the peak and in the second half of 2010 inflation
will be lower than in the first half and there are no prerequisites
for inflation growth for the end of the year.
From: A. Papazian