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WESTERN MILITARY ROLE IN CAUCASUS WOULD BE 'FOOLISH'
news.az
Aug 5 2010
Azerbaijan
Paul Robinson News.Az interviews Dr Paul Robinson, a professor at the
University of Ottawa's Graduate School of Public and International
Affairs.
What does the Caspian region, and Azerbaijan in particular, mean to
Canada? What are Canada's main interests in the region?
Canadian interests in the Caspian region and Azerbaijan are very
limited. While there is some interest in energy issues, because Canada
is a massive oil producer itself, it does not need Caspian oil or gas,
and so its energy security is not much affected by events in the region
(except in so far as they affect the price of oil and gas).
Regional stability is, of course, desirable, but instability is
unlikely to have a large affect on our security here.
Do you agree that the Russian-Georgian war scared the West and now
the US and its allies prefer not to anger the Russians by active
military and other contacts with Georgia and other Russian neighbours?
I haven't observed a great change in US policy towards Georgia
post-war, but I feel that it is unlikely that other NATO members
would now be very supportive of NATO membership for Georgia.
Georgia left the Commonwealth of Independent States after the war
with Russia in 2008. Can the West and NATO fully compensate for the
cooperation Georgia has lost in the economic, political and military
spheres?
The CIS is not a very meaningful organization, so Georgia has not
obviously lost anything by leaving it. I would have thought that the
EU would have more to offer than NATO for Georgia in the long term,
but in all probability even that would be very limited.
After the Russian-Georgian war, the issue was raised of sending NATO
troops to the Caucasus to ensure the security of regional pipelines.
What do you think about that?
Personally, I feel that it would be very foolish of the West to get
involved militarily in the Caucasus. I cannot see any benefit that
we would gain from taking sides in these disputes. The best way of
preventing a new Russian-Georgian war would be to avoid rearming and
encouraging Georgia, and to make it clear that it cannot rely on NATO
to help it out.
Do you think that the case of Kosovo may influence other conflicts,
in particular the Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia?
The Kosovo declaration of independence could eventually encourage
something similar by Nagorno-Karabakh. To be honest, I do not know what
the resolution of that problem will be, but it seems almost impossible
that Karabakh would ever agree to be reunited with Azerbaijan. It would
probably be best for all concerned if they recognized this reality,
however unpleasant some of them might find it.
Russia and the US are the main mediators in the Karabakh settlement.
Can we say that the Cold War period between the US and Russia is
already over when it comes to cooperation on solving conflicts in
the post-Soviet area?
The Cold War as such is over, but there remains a strong element of
Russophobia in policy circles in the West, while there is a degree
of paranoia about in Russia. This creates inevitable tensions in
the relationship.
Paul Robinson is a former military intelligence officer in the British
and Canadian armies and the author of a number of books and articles.
He holds an MA in Russian and Eastern European Studies from the
University of Toronto and a D. Phil. in Modern History from the
University of Oxford.
From: A. Papazian
news.az
Aug 5 2010
Azerbaijan
Paul Robinson News.Az interviews Dr Paul Robinson, a professor at the
University of Ottawa's Graduate School of Public and International
Affairs.
What does the Caspian region, and Azerbaijan in particular, mean to
Canada? What are Canada's main interests in the region?
Canadian interests in the Caspian region and Azerbaijan are very
limited. While there is some interest in energy issues, because Canada
is a massive oil producer itself, it does not need Caspian oil or gas,
and so its energy security is not much affected by events in the region
(except in so far as they affect the price of oil and gas).
Regional stability is, of course, desirable, but instability is
unlikely to have a large affect on our security here.
Do you agree that the Russian-Georgian war scared the West and now
the US and its allies prefer not to anger the Russians by active
military and other contacts with Georgia and other Russian neighbours?
I haven't observed a great change in US policy towards Georgia
post-war, but I feel that it is unlikely that other NATO members
would now be very supportive of NATO membership for Georgia.
Georgia left the Commonwealth of Independent States after the war
with Russia in 2008. Can the West and NATO fully compensate for the
cooperation Georgia has lost in the economic, political and military
spheres?
The CIS is not a very meaningful organization, so Georgia has not
obviously lost anything by leaving it. I would have thought that the
EU would have more to offer than NATO for Georgia in the long term,
but in all probability even that would be very limited.
After the Russian-Georgian war, the issue was raised of sending NATO
troops to the Caucasus to ensure the security of regional pipelines.
What do you think about that?
Personally, I feel that it would be very foolish of the West to get
involved militarily in the Caucasus. I cannot see any benefit that
we would gain from taking sides in these disputes. The best way of
preventing a new Russian-Georgian war would be to avoid rearming and
encouraging Georgia, and to make it clear that it cannot rely on NATO
to help it out.
Do you think that the case of Kosovo may influence other conflicts,
in particular the Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia?
The Kosovo declaration of independence could eventually encourage
something similar by Nagorno-Karabakh. To be honest, I do not know what
the resolution of that problem will be, but it seems almost impossible
that Karabakh would ever agree to be reunited with Azerbaijan. It would
probably be best for all concerned if they recognized this reality,
however unpleasant some of them might find it.
Russia and the US are the main mediators in the Karabakh settlement.
Can we say that the Cold War period between the US and Russia is
already over when it comes to cooperation on solving conflicts in
the post-Soviet area?
The Cold War as such is over, but there remains a strong element of
Russophobia in policy circles in the West, while there is a degree
of paranoia about in Russia. This creates inevitable tensions in
the relationship.
Paul Robinson is a former military intelligence officer in the British
and Canadian armies and the author of a number of books and articles.
He holds an MA in Russian and Eastern European Studies from the
University of Toronto and a D. Phil. in Modern History from the
University of Oxford.
From: A. Papazian