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THE REGION MAY BE ON THE BRINK OF MAJOR RESTRUCTURING, IF NOT DESTABILIZATION
Haroutiun Khachatrian
Noyan Tapan
09.08.2010
Two major events have happened recently which remained almost unnoticed
in the lull of the summer. In fact, the first event, the report
about the possible supply of the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft system
to Azerbaijan was widely discussed in Armenia and even was denied by
an unnamed Russian official. The second event about developing the
Russian-Armenian military ties was covered to lesser extent. As for
the combination of analyses on these two lines of reports, they were
subject to combined analyses, but these analyses mostly seem to be
led to a wrong direction.
So, this analysis pretends to fill some of these drawbacks.
S-300 in Azerbaijan
I am not informed sufficiently in the political history, but my
impression is that the stability in the territories around Nagorno
Karabakh may be regarded a rather unique phenomenon in the world. The
cease-fire agreement started on May 12 1994, sixteen years ago, and
during these years, three armies, the Azerbaijani army on one side,
and the armies of the Republic of Armenia and of the Nagorno Karabakh
Republic, on the other side, have generally kept the cease-fire. This
was done without any peace-keeping of separating forces. The cease-fire
has been preserved despite the bellicose statements of the Azerbaijani
side which has been threatening almost each day to renew the war
and to "liberate Karabakh" from the "Armenian aggressors". All the
specialists agree: Baku would in fact start a new war if it had
a smallest hope that its army had some chance to win. As this was
not case, the cease-fire was kept. So, the current combination of
military resources of Armenia, Nagorno Karabakh and Azerbaijan secures
a balance which is optimal for stability.
To go a little farther into details, a key reason for this balance to
be kept is that the Armenian parties have the possibility to reach,
with their missiles, the main oil infrastructures near Baku, and
their possible damage during a renewed armed conflict has prevented
the Azerbaijani leadership from taking aggressive steps.
And now, rumors are spread that Azerbaijan is going to purchase a
Russian S-300 anti-aircraft system. In fact, the S-300 is not simply
an anti-aircraft system, but it is an anti-missile system as well. In
other words, this system, the pride of the Russian military industry,
is capable to protect the Azerbaijani oil terminals from the possible
attacks of Armenian missiles. Consequently, Azerbaijan can hope that,
if a new war campaign starts, its attacks on the Armenian armies may
remain unpunished. So, a temptation may riseŽ
In addition, these S-300 systems can serve not only as defense weapons,
but also as offensive ones. So, Azerbaijan may acquire a possibility
to hit the Armenian positions which were previously out of its reach.
Thus, here one has a reason to remember the Strategic Arms Limitation
Treaty between the U.S. and the USSR, the so-called SALT I, signed
in early 1970s. An important point of this first disarmament treaty
was that is was about limiting the number of anti-ballistic missile
(ABM) systems, and not simply the Offensive weapons. The anti-missile
weapons are more destabilizing than the offensive ones. It is because
they create an illusion of impunity.
The Russian officials have denied the information about the Russian
supplies of S-300 to Azerbaijan (see an example in this issue).
"If Moscow doesn't sell its S 300 missile defense systems to Azerbaijan
then Israel of African Republic will," arannews.ir reported military
expert Ruslan Pikhov as saying.
The Armenia-Russian military ties
In an August 4 TV appearance, Arthur Baghdasarian, Secretary
of President's National Security Council, outlined the following
processes, which speak about further tightening of the Russian-Armenian
military contacts:
a. Extension of the terms of the Russian military base to 49
years from 25 years now. So, this base located mainly in Gyumri,
will be in Armenia until at least the year 2044. b. Amendment in the
Armenia-Russia military agreement whereby the Russian base will act in
favor of the national security of Armenia, c. Enhancing the activities
if both countries in the framework of the Collective Security Treaty
Organization, in particular, in enhancing the rapid acting forces
of CSTO. d. Integration of some Armenian enterprises in the Russian
military production chains.
All of this news was to show that the security of Armenia will remain
high with an ally as Russia permanently present.
Yes, the support of Russia is, of course, important and welcome. But
a question remains: will this support be there if Azerbaijan acquires
an S-300 system? No matter, if it is from Russia or it is from the
South Africa.
Another question is: Even if Russia is decisive enough to assist
Armenia in case of an Azerbaijani attack, will this assistance be
effective enough against S-300? These missiles need just several
seconds to hit the target.
Finally, here we see a situation, when Russia (like any outside
player), can use the Karabakh conflict as a nice pretext to sell
weapons to both Armenia and Azerbaijan. This means that Russia may
not be interested in having the conflict settled quickly.
Isn't Russia creating obstacles to the settlement of the conflict
between Azeris and Armenians now and will it be doing so in the future?
From: A. Papazian
Haroutiun Khachatrian
Noyan Tapan
09.08.2010
Two major events have happened recently which remained almost unnoticed
in the lull of the summer. In fact, the first event, the report
about the possible supply of the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft system
to Azerbaijan was widely discussed in Armenia and even was denied by
an unnamed Russian official. The second event about developing the
Russian-Armenian military ties was covered to lesser extent. As for
the combination of analyses on these two lines of reports, they were
subject to combined analyses, but these analyses mostly seem to be
led to a wrong direction.
So, this analysis pretends to fill some of these drawbacks.
S-300 in Azerbaijan
I am not informed sufficiently in the political history, but my
impression is that the stability in the territories around Nagorno
Karabakh may be regarded a rather unique phenomenon in the world. The
cease-fire agreement started on May 12 1994, sixteen years ago, and
during these years, three armies, the Azerbaijani army on one side,
and the armies of the Republic of Armenia and of the Nagorno Karabakh
Republic, on the other side, have generally kept the cease-fire. This
was done without any peace-keeping of separating forces. The cease-fire
has been preserved despite the bellicose statements of the Azerbaijani
side which has been threatening almost each day to renew the war
and to "liberate Karabakh" from the "Armenian aggressors". All the
specialists agree: Baku would in fact start a new war if it had
a smallest hope that its army had some chance to win. As this was
not case, the cease-fire was kept. So, the current combination of
military resources of Armenia, Nagorno Karabakh and Azerbaijan secures
a balance which is optimal for stability.
To go a little farther into details, a key reason for this balance to
be kept is that the Armenian parties have the possibility to reach,
with their missiles, the main oil infrastructures near Baku, and
their possible damage during a renewed armed conflict has prevented
the Azerbaijani leadership from taking aggressive steps.
And now, rumors are spread that Azerbaijan is going to purchase a
Russian S-300 anti-aircraft system. In fact, the S-300 is not simply
an anti-aircraft system, but it is an anti-missile system as well. In
other words, this system, the pride of the Russian military industry,
is capable to protect the Azerbaijani oil terminals from the possible
attacks of Armenian missiles. Consequently, Azerbaijan can hope that,
if a new war campaign starts, its attacks on the Armenian armies may
remain unpunished. So, a temptation may riseŽ
In addition, these S-300 systems can serve not only as defense weapons,
but also as offensive ones. So, Azerbaijan may acquire a possibility
to hit the Armenian positions which were previously out of its reach.
Thus, here one has a reason to remember the Strategic Arms Limitation
Treaty between the U.S. and the USSR, the so-called SALT I, signed
in early 1970s. An important point of this first disarmament treaty
was that is was about limiting the number of anti-ballistic missile
(ABM) systems, and not simply the Offensive weapons. The anti-missile
weapons are more destabilizing than the offensive ones. It is because
they create an illusion of impunity.
The Russian officials have denied the information about the Russian
supplies of S-300 to Azerbaijan (see an example in this issue).
"If Moscow doesn't sell its S 300 missile defense systems to Azerbaijan
then Israel of African Republic will," arannews.ir reported military
expert Ruslan Pikhov as saying.
The Armenia-Russian military ties
In an August 4 TV appearance, Arthur Baghdasarian, Secretary
of President's National Security Council, outlined the following
processes, which speak about further tightening of the Russian-Armenian
military contacts:
a. Extension of the terms of the Russian military base to 49
years from 25 years now. So, this base located mainly in Gyumri,
will be in Armenia until at least the year 2044. b. Amendment in the
Armenia-Russia military agreement whereby the Russian base will act in
favor of the national security of Armenia, c. Enhancing the activities
if both countries in the framework of the Collective Security Treaty
Organization, in particular, in enhancing the rapid acting forces
of CSTO. d. Integration of some Armenian enterprises in the Russian
military production chains.
All of this news was to show that the security of Armenia will remain
high with an ally as Russia permanently present.
Yes, the support of Russia is, of course, important and welcome. But
a question remains: will this support be there if Azerbaijan acquires
an S-300 system? No matter, if it is from Russia or it is from the
South Africa.
Another question is: Even if Russia is decisive enough to assist
Armenia in case of an Azerbaijani attack, will this assistance be
effective enough against S-300? These missiles need just several
seconds to hit the target.
Finally, here we see a situation, when Russia (like any outside
player), can use the Karabakh conflict as a nice pretext to sell
weapons to both Armenia and Azerbaijan. This means that Russia may
not be interested in having the conflict settled quickly.
Isn't Russia creating obstacles to the settlement of the conflict
between Azeris and Armenians now and will it be doing so in the future?
From: A. Papazian