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news.az, Azerbaijan
Aug 14 2010
Azerbaijan should firstly focus on its possibilities in resolving conflict
Sat 14 August 2010 | 05:54 GMT Text size:
Luba von Hauff News.Az interviews Luba von Hauff, program officer on
the Russia/Eurasia Program at the German Council on Foreign Relations.
There is an opinion that Germany and EU began to pay much more
attention to the South Caucasian region. Can we expect that EU and
German relations with this region will be more active, especially in
economic and energy spheres?
There are voices in Germany and the EU advocating a more active
approach towards the South Caucasus, emphasizing economic
considerations and also eyeing upon the security situation in the
region. As for the former, the deepening of relations depends firstly
upon the EU-wide economic outlook which has been rather gloomy in the
recent past and has led to a current decline in the overall trade
volume. Secondly, EU and German engagement is contingent upon the
successful implementation of political as well as economic reforms in
the South Caucasian countries themselves, as the Eastern Partnership
Initiative demonstrates.
The EU attempts to raise its role in regional security issues as well.
Thus, Brussels has not only mediated a ceasefire after the
Russian-Georgian war but also, in the aftermath of the war,
established a monitoring mission (EUMM) in Georgia. However, in the
long run it remains to be seen as to whether the EU will be able and
willing to genuinely assume more responsibility in this realm.
Do you agree with people saying that after Russian-Georgian war in
2008 it's already unsecure to supply energy resources from the
unstable South Caucasus to Europe?
The conflict between Russia and Georgia did indeed accentuate the
various economic, political and security risks that investors as well
as producers - not only in the realm of energy - face in the
post-soviet environment. There is insecurity regarding the region's
unsettled conflicts as well as Russia's general unpredictability with
regard to its neighbourhood which, among other, mainly internal
governance issues, dampens the preparedness of financially potent
institutions - at least from the European Union - to invest.
What is Azerbaijan for the EU? Is it just an energy supplier or something more?
The South Caucasus has a unique geographic position that endows with a
pivotal role in building an East-West corridor and connecting the
European Union to strategically vital regions such as Central Asia and
the Middle East. Energy, especially in regard of Azerbaijan's Caspian
resources, may clearly be regarded as one of the major issues here,
however, one should not underestimate the region's geostrategic
significance which emanates in the spheres of international diplomacy
and security. At the same time, due to its geographic position the
region acts as a hub for various trafficking and immigration flows and
thus presents a source of insecurity, too.
With particular regard to Azerbaijan, the `frozen conflict' over
Nagorno-Karabakh as well as the unpredictability of President Aliyev's
geopolitical orientation and his autocratic rule do pose further
potential security risks to the European Union, especially since there
has been massive armament on the Azeri side during the period of
economic growth.
Despite recent efforts the EU's capability in resolving the
post-Soviet region's frozen conflicts remains rather low. This is due
to the inherently intergovernmental character of the CFSP and ESDP as
well as to the role of the regional actors in the conflict such as
Turkey and Russia. It is not clear to me what Baku would expect from
Brussels as both parties to the conflict (and potentially some
regional powers, too) may have an economic and political interest in
maintaining the conflict and thus its underlying informal structures.
Therefore, Azerbaijan should firstly focus on its possibilities in
resolving the conflict and only then expect any concrete help on the
part of the EU.
Aliyah Fridman
News.Az
From: A. Papazian
Aug 14 2010
Azerbaijan should firstly focus on its possibilities in resolving conflict
Sat 14 August 2010 | 05:54 GMT Text size:
Luba von Hauff News.Az interviews Luba von Hauff, program officer on
the Russia/Eurasia Program at the German Council on Foreign Relations.
There is an opinion that Germany and EU began to pay much more
attention to the South Caucasian region. Can we expect that EU and
German relations with this region will be more active, especially in
economic and energy spheres?
There are voices in Germany and the EU advocating a more active
approach towards the South Caucasus, emphasizing economic
considerations and also eyeing upon the security situation in the
region. As for the former, the deepening of relations depends firstly
upon the EU-wide economic outlook which has been rather gloomy in the
recent past and has led to a current decline in the overall trade
volume. Secondly, EU and German engagement is contingent upon the
successful implementation of political as well as economic reforms in
the South Caucasian countries themselves, as the Eastern Partnership
Initiative demonstrates.
The EU attempts to raise its role in regional security issues as well.
Thus, Brussels has not only mediated a ceasefire after the
Russian-Georgian war but also, in the aftermath of the war,
established a monitoring mission (EUMM) in Georgia. However, in the
long run it remains to be seen as to whether the EU will be able and
willing to genuinely assume more responsibility in this realm.
Do you agree with people saying that after Russian-Georgian war in
2008 it's already unsecure to supply energy resources from the
unstable South Caucasus to Europe?
The conflict between Russia and Georgia did indeed accentuate the
various economic, political and security risks that investors as well
as producers - not only in the realm of energy - face in the
post-soviet environment. There is insecurity regarding the region's
unsettled conflicts as well as Russia's general unpredictability with
regard to its neighbourhood which, among other, mainly internal
governance issues, dampens the preparedness of financially potent
institutions - at least from the European Union - to invest.
What is Azerbaijan for the EU? Is it just an energy supplier or something more?
The South Caucasus has a unique geographic position that endows with a
pivotal role in building an East-West corridor and connecting the
European Union to strategically vital regions such as Central Asia and
the Middle East. Energy, especially in regard of Azerbaijan's Caspian
resources, may clearly be regarded as one of the major issues here,
however, one should not underestimate the region's geostrategic
significance which emanates in the spheres of international diplomacy
and security. At the same time, due to its geographic position the
region acts as a hub for various trafficking and immigration flows and
thus presents a source of insecurity, too.
With particular regard to Azerbaijan, the `frozen conflict' over
Nagorno-Karabakh as well as the unpredictability of President Aliyev's
geopolitical orientation and his autocratic rule do pose further
potential security risks to the European Union, especially since there
has been massive armament on the Azeri side during the period of
economic growth.
Despite recent efforts the EU's capability in resolving the
post-Soviet region's frozen conflicts remains rather low. This is due
to the inherently intergovernmental character of the CFSP and ESDP as
well as to the role of the regional actors in the conflict such as
Turkey and Russia. It is not clear to me what Baku would expect from
Brussels as both parties to the conflict (and potentially some
regional powers, too) may have an economic and political interest in
maintaining the conflict and thus its underlying informal structures.
Therefore, Azerbaijan should firstly focus on its possibilities in
resolving the conflict and only then expect any concrete help on the
part of the EU.
Aliyah Fridman
News.Az
From: A. Papazian