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RUSSIA FURTHER STRENGTHENS ITS POSITION IN THE CAUCASUS
The Messenger
Aug 23 2010
Georgia
Russia is further strengthening its position in the South Caucasus and
consequently all over the post Soviet area as well as in the Middle
East. Meanwhile the West naively observes this "resetting policy" with
curiosity. This is what we conclude from the recent developments in
the mentioned areas - the deployment of S300 missiles on Georgia's
territory of Abkhazia, the possible sale of the same devices to
Azerbaijan, the visit of Russia's president Medvedev to Yerevan, along
with his signing of an agreement on Russian military base in Armenia,
holding the Collective Security Treaty Summit, an upcoming visit of
Medvedev to Baku in September, as well as a general strengthening of
its military presence in Georgia's occupied territories which have
already been "the new reality" for two years.
Analysts worldwide, not only in Georgia, express their deep
concern as they see Russia increasing its presence not only in
the regions mentioned, but around the world. For instance Ariel
Cohen in his article in Washington Times thinks that Moscow is
using whole geopolitical instruments to change the balance in
Eurasia. This includes diplomacy, informative operations, selling
arms and constructing military bases to protect its interests in the
sphere. It has become clear that either the West cannot stop Russia,
or it is choosing not to do so. With the deployment of S-300 missiles
in Abkhazia and Armenia, Russia is able to control the entire area
of the South Caucasus, Black Sea and part of the Near East. Strangely
enough the West "cannot see" that and/or cannot respond effectively.
The US administration has chosen a soft force policy, while Moscow
exploits a "hard policy" and is gradually exercising more and
more influence in this strategically important region. Ariel Cohen
predicts that if things continue like this, Washington's influence
in the region will decrease considerably and the US would need tens
of years to rebuild it, while the Russians are acting directly to
expel the US out of these regions. Cohen's predictions are rather
pessimistic concerning the US reset policy towards Russia.
We can also surmise that Russia does not even think about the EU
as a player while it is creating its new reality. Russian analyst,
Stanislav Tarasov extremely positively evaluates Russia's moves in
the regions, believing that they change the regional balance of the
forces in Moscow's favour. Speaking about the South Caucasus, we
should assume that Moscow has also managed to push Turkey aside. The
final major problem Russia must overcome is to be the champion that
brokers the settlement of the Azeri-Armenian conflict over Karabakh. If
it can find an acceptable solution of the conflict for both sides,
then Russia's position will be finally domineering in this region,
at least for time being.
From: A. Papazian
The Messenger
Aug 23 2010
Georgia
Russia is further strengthening its position in the South Caucasus and
consequently all over the post Soviet area as well as in the Middle
East. Meanwhile the West naively observes this "resetting policy" with
curiosity. This is what we conclude from the recent developments in
the mentioned areas - the deployment of S300 missiles on Georgia's
territory of Abkhazia, the possible sale of the same devices to
Azerbaijan, the visit of Russia's president Medvedev to Yerevan, along
with his signing of an agreement on Russian military base in Armenia,
holding the Collective Security Treaty Summit, an upcoming visit of
Medvedev to Baku in September, as well as a general strengthening of
its military presence in Georgia's occupied territories which have
already been "the new reality" for two years.
Analysts worldwide, not only in Georgia, express their deep
concern as they see Russia increasing its presence not only in
the regions mentioned, but around the world. For instance Ariel
Cohen in his article in Washington Times thinks that Moscow is
using whole geopolitical instruments to change the balance in
Eurasia. This includes diplomacy, informative operations, selling
arms and constructing military bases to protect its interests in the
sphere. It has become clear that either the West cannot stop Russia,
or it is choosing not to do so. With the deployment of S-300 missiles
in Abkhazia and Armenia, Russia is able to control the entire area
of the South Caucasus, Black Sea and part of the Near East. Strangely
enough the West "cannot see" that and/or cannot respond effectively.
The US administration has chosen a soft force policy, while Moscow
exploits a "hard policy" and is gradually exercising more and
more influence in this strategically important region. Ariel Cohen
predicts that if things continue like this, Washington's influence
in the region will decrease considerably and the US would need tens
of years to rebuild it, while the Russians are acting directly to
expel the US out of these regions. Cohen's predictions are rather
pessimistic concerning the US reset policy towards Russia.
We can also surmise that Russia does not even think about the EU
as a player while it is creating its new reality. Russian analyst,
Stanislav Tarasov extremely positively evaluates Russia's moves in
the regions, believing that they change the regional balance of the
forces in Moscow's favour. Speaking about the South Caucasus, we
should assume that Moscow has also managed to push Turkey aside. The
final major problem Russia must overcome is to be the champion that
brokers the settlement of the Azeri-Armenian conflict over Karabakh. If
it can find an acceptable solution of the conflict for both sides,
then Russia's position will be finally domineering in this region,
at least for time being.
From: A. Papazian