Tweet
ANKARA 'NOT BOTHERED' BY RUSSIAN TROOP INCREASE IN ARMENIA
News.az
Aug 23 2010
Azerbaijan
Suha Bolukbasi News.Az interviews Suha Bolukbasi, professor in the
Department of International Relations at the Middle East Technical
University, Ankara.
How would you comment on the changes in the functions of the Russian
military base in Armenia and the proposed increase of Russian arms
supplies to Yerevan?
Apparently Russia is interested in keeping a foothold in the
South Caucasus. (Georgia is definitely anti-Russian; Baku is less
anti-Russian, but not pro-Russian either. Azerbaijanis consider
Russia to be pro-Yerevan, and that Moscow helped Armenia to conquer
Nagorno-Karabakh.) Hence for Moscow a military base in Armenia is
very important. Yerevan, meanwhile, considers the Russian military
presence to be vital, given the fact that it is surrounded by
Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey - countries that do not share many
common objectives with Armenia.
Do you think that an increased military presence near the Turkish
and Azerbaijani borders is a threat to Ankara and Baku?
I don't think such a threat exists. Russia's military presence in the
region will reinforce its diplomatic objectives, but I don't think
Moscow will use force to influence developments. Moscow' military
presence in Armenia has continued since the demise of the USSR and
could strengthen its role in the settlement (or non-settlement, as
many Azerbaijanis believe) of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. Moscow has
been enjoying very close relations with Ankara for some time. (Some
point to a Turkey-Iran-Russia axis in diplomacy.) So, Ankara will
not be bothered by a larger Russian military base near its borders.
Can we expect Russian intervention in a Karabakh war if Azerbaijan
decided to liberate its occupied lands by force?
I don't think Baku will initiate war to liberate Karabakh. Yet
accidents do happen, and hostilities with Armenia could resume. In
such a situation Russia might decide to deploy troops as peacekeepers
in and around mountainous Karabakh.
Do you think that the agreement on strategic partnership and mutual
support signed by the presidents of Azerbaijan and Turkey can ensure
stability in our region?
I believe this agreement is basically a diplomatic gesture for
both Ankara and Baku. If stability means prevention of a renewal of
hostilities between Baku and Yerevan, the prevailing situation in
the region and surrounding occupied territories will continue unless
Baku decides to liberate these lands. I don't believe that Baku is
genuinely interested in doing so. Even if the Azeri government were
to declare war, Turkey would not participate in hostilities, because
its involvement could result in a military conflict between Turkey
and Russia.
There are reports of plans to establish Turkish military bases
in Nakhchivan or other Azerbaijani regions. Do you think they are
accurate?
As I mentioned earlier, no Turkish government would take such a step.
Ankara would believe that such a step would be too provocative
vis-à-vis Moscow or Yerevan.
From: A. Papazian
News.az
Aug 23 2010
Azerbaijan
Suha Bolukbasi News.Az interviews Suha Bolukbasi, professor in the
Department of International Relations at the Middle East Technical
University, Ankara.
How would you comment on the changes in the functions of the Russian
military base in Armenia and the proposed increase of Russian arms
supplies to Yerevan?
Apparently Russia is interested in keeping a foothold in the
South Caucasus. (Georgia is definitely anti-Russian; Baku is less
anti-Russian, but not pro-Russian either. Azerbaijanis consider
Russia to be pro-Yerevan, and that Moscow helped Armenia to conquer
Nagorno-Karabakh.) Hence for Moscow a military base in Armenia is
very important. Yerevan, meanwhile, considers the Russian military
presence to be vital, given the fact that it is surrounded by
Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey - countries that do not share many
common objectives with Armenia.
Do you think that an increased military presence near the Turkish
and Azerbaijani borders is a threat to Ankara and Baku?
I don't think such a threat exists. Russia's military presence in the
region will reinforce its diplomatic objectives, but I don't think
Moscow will use force to influence developments. Moscow' military
presence in Armenia has continued since the demise of the USSR and
could strengthen its role in the settlement (or non-settlement, as
many Azerbaijanis believe) of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. Moscow has
been enjoying very close relations with Ankara for some time. (Some
point to a Turkey-Iran-Russia axis in diplomacy.) So, Ankara will
not be bothered by a larger Russian military base near its borders.
Can we expect Russian intervention in a Karabakh war if Azerbaijan
decided to liberate its occupied lands by force?
I don't think Baku will initiate war to liberate Karabakh. Yet
accidents do happen, and hostilities with Armenia could resume. In
such a situation Russia might decide to deploy troops as peacekeepers
in and around mountainous Karabakh.
Do you think that the agreement on strategic partnership and mutual
support signed by the presidents of Azerbaijan and Turkey can ensure
stability in our region?
I believe this agreement is basically a diplomatic gesture for
both Ankara and Baku. If stability means prevention of a renewal of
hostilities between Baku and Yerevan, the prevailing situation in
the region and surrounding occupied territories will continue unless
Baku decides to liberate these lands. I don't believe that Baku is
genuinely interested in doing so. Even if the Azeri government were
to declare war, Turkey would not participate in hostilities, because
its involvement could result in a military conflict between Turkey
and Russia.
There are reports of plans to establish Turkish military bases
in Nakhchivan or other Azerbaijani regions. Do you think they are
accurate?
As I mentioned earlier, no Turkish government would take such a step.
Ankara would believe that such a step would be too provocative
vis-à-vis Moscow or Yerevan.
From: A. Papazian