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http://www.news.az/articles/politics/27859
Only President Aliyev emerges from WikiLeaks 'with dignity'
Mon 06 December 2010 14:04 GMT |
Vladimir Socor
News.Az interviews Vladimir Socor, senior fellow on the Eurasia
Programme at US thinktank the Jamestown Foundation.
Last week's OSCE summit in Astana paid considerable attention to the
Karabakh settlement, although the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents
did not meet at the summit. What is the OSCE's role in the conflict
resolution?
The resolution of the conflict does not depend on the OSCE. This
organization can only confirm the resolution by means of the Minsk
Group. The Minsk Group can bring the parties to a resolution and only
afterwards can the OSCE confirm it. The OSCE is playing a purely
symbolical role. This is just the arena for public statements, rather
than resolution. The Minsk Group has not been able to do anything in
the past two decades. Some achievements on paper in the form of the
Madrid principles were accepted by Azerbaijan and not accepted by
Armenia. Armenia did not give any official response to these
principles. This means a refusal from Yerevan. In the past few years
Russia and especially President Medvedev have taken a leading role in
contacts in diplomatic negotiations. The United States, not to mention
France, are playing a secondary role in the settlement. This is not
natural.
Considering the well known priorities (I think these priorities are
wrong) of Afghanistan, Iraq, confrontation with Iran, as well as other
unlucky efforts, the South Caucasus and Caspian region have lost
attention. Instead of taking this region as a high priority in its
policy, the United States is engaged in these unlucky efforts in the
other regions. As a result, Russia is playing (at least, symbolically)
the leading role in negotiations on the Karabakh conflict. But this
has not always been the case. We all remember that the United States
took the initiative under President Clinton. At the meeting in Key
West nine years ago the United States was close to resolution of this
conflict. I think when the United States realizes that they will not
be able to do much in Afghanistan, or Iraq, or the confrontation with
Iran, when they go back to foreign policy concentrated on Europe and
the South Caucasus, then the United States will be able to play a
leading role, including in the resolution of the conflict between
Armenia and Azerbaijan.
What has caused the Wikileaks scandal and what are its possible
implications for Azerbaijan?
I am sure that there was no plot to distribute this material. I am
confident that this is a sign of the weakness of the US government
that a young person of low rank could access this volume of
confidential material. This is just a sign of the weakness of the
organization of the US government. It's not a plot.
As for the content of this material, I think that all those named are
discredited, except for President Aliyev. Only President Aliyev passed
this exam with dignity.
Why do I say this? Judging from the quotes, everything he said is
balanced, moderate and clever. He is a dignified representative of
Azerbaijan's state interests. Everything he said is true. As an
expert, I can confirm what he said. He was right and he was not trying
to abuse anyone, he just represented the state interests of
Azerbaijan. Almost everything he said there, he had said earlier in
his public statements.
The things he did not said in public and just said in these private
talks include two aspects. Azerbaijan allegedly does not want Turkey
to purchase Azerbaijani gas at a lower price and resell it at a high
price. But we already know this is the policy of Azerbaijan. However,
President Aliyev has never said this is a sharp form in public. But
it's entirely reasonable and everyone, including the European Union,
understands this. The EU agrees with Baku's position. So there is
nothing terrible in this.
Meanwhile, the second aspect, which the president might have said less
harshly in public, is related to relations between Azerbaijan and
Iran. The president attempted to explain to the US negotiators that
the relations between Azerbaijan and Iran are not so clear. On the one
hand, Iran is a strong country and important neighbour and partner,
and in this connection Azerbaijan has many common interests with it,
but on the other hand there are potential threats coming from Iran to
Azerbaijan. The president described these potential threats. This is
also a very reasonable and balanced position. The president takes care
of the interests of his country and this is quite natural. The
representatives of other states, quoted by WikiLeaks, say anything at
all, insult others, just waste time in these empty, sometimes abusive,
talks on WikiLeaks. President Aliyev's words are different. He does
not insult or waste time, he talks about specifics.
The Turkish press have interpreted Ilham Aliyev's remarks quoted on
WikiLeaks as if he is against Turkey's transformation into a big
transit country. How would you comment on this?
As far as I understand it, this is a great misunderstanding in the
Turkish press after WikiLeaks. This is completely untrue. Experts on
energy have understood what President Aliyev said. In reality, he said
Azerbaijan is against Turkey buying Azerbaijani gas cheaply in the
East and then reselling it at a high price in the West. This would
mean that in this case Turkey would be distribution hub. In other
words, it's is a country that has no gas, buys it cheaply and resells
it at a higher price and keeps gas in underground gas reservoirs.
This is Azerbaijan's position, which is supported by the EU.
Azerbaijan completely supports Turkey's growth into a major transit
country and this is quite a different issue. This means that
Azerbaijan will have direct contact with Azerbaijani gas consumers in
Europe via Turkey. Meanwhile, Turkey offers transit services for which
it receives transit income from Azerbaijan.
This is a concept of the European Union and Azerbaijan is in favour of
it. There are no cases in Europe of a country importing gas and
reselling it at a higher price. European countries offer transit
services for a specific fee.
This is what President Aliyev said, judging from WikiLeaks. But
journalists who are not specialists in energy did not understand the
word hub, used by the Azerbaijani leader. In addition, Azerbaijan
really wants Turkey to be a big transit country, including for
Azerbaijani oil and Azerbaijani gas. Azerbaijan has launched the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipelines for Turkey to
become a transit country, including for Azerbaijani resources. No
country wants to depend on one energy corridor and Azerbaijan is no
exception. Azerbaijan, as President Aliyev said, like any other
country does not want to `put all its all eggs in one basket'. This
practice is applied everywhere and there is no reason for Turkey to be
angry about what is quite normal. Even Turkey wants to import energy
via different corridors, not only from Azerbaijan but also from Russia
and Iran. Thus, this scandal in the Turkish press has no grounds. I
think there are people that are interested in spoiling relations
between Turkey and Azerbaijan. But Turkish public opinion should
understand the gap between a distribution centre and a transit country
and should understand the concept of the diversification of corridors
both from the Azerbaijani side and Turkey.
Leyla Tagiyeva
From: A. Papazian
Only President Aliyev emerges from WikiLeaks 'with dignity'
Mon 06 December 2010 14:04 GMT |
Vladimir Socor
News.Az interviews Vladimir Socor, senior fellow on the Eurasia
Programme at US thinktank the Jamestown Foundation.
Last week's OSCE summit in Astana paid considerable attention to the
Karabakh settlement, although the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents
did not meet at the summit. What is the OSCE's role in the conflict
resolution?
The resolution of the conflict does not depend on the OSCE. This
organization can only confirm the resolution by means of the Minsk
Group. The Minsk Group can bring the parties to a resolution and only
afterwards can the OSCE confirm it. The OSCE is playing a purely
symbolical role. This is just the arena for public statements, rather
than resolution. The Minsk Group has not been able to do anything in
the past two decades. Some achievements on paper in the form of the
Madrid principles were accepted by Azerbaijan and not accepted by
Armenia. Armenia did not give any official response to these
principles. This means a refusal from Yerevan. In the past few years
Russia and especially President Medvedev have taken a leading role in
contacts in diplomatic negotiations. The United States, not to mention
France, are playing a secondary role in the settlement. This is not
natural.
Considering the well known priorities (I think these priorities are
wrong) of Afghanistan, Iraq, confrontation with Iran, as well as other
unlucky efforts, the South Caucasus and Caspian region have lost
attention. Instead of taking this region as a high priority in its
policy, the United States is engaged in these unlucky efforts in the
other regions. As a result, Russia is playing (at least, symbolically)
the leading role in negotiations on the Karabakh conflict. But this
has not always been the case. We all remember that the United States
took the initiative under President Clinton. At the meeting in Key
West nine years ago the United States was close to resolution of this
conflict. I think when the United States realizes that they will not
be able to do much in Afghanistan, or Iraq, or the confrontation with
Iran, when they go back to foreign policy concentrated on Europe and
the South Caucasus, then the United States will be able to play a
leading role, including in the resolution of the conflict between
Armenia and Azerbaijan.
What has caused the Wikileaks scandal and what are its possible
implications for Azerbaijan?
I am sure that there was no plot to distribute this material. I am
confident that this is a sign of the weakness of the US government
that a young person of low rank could access this volume of
confidential material. This is just a sign of the weakness of the
organization of the US government. It's not a plot.
As for the content of this material, I think that all those named are
discredited, except for President Aliyev. Only President Aliyev passed
this exam with dignity.
Why do I say this? Judging from the quotes, everything he said is
balanced, moderate and clever. He is a dignified representative of
Azerbaijan's state interests. Everything he said is true. As an
expert, I can confirm what he said. He was right and he was not trying
to abuse anyone, he just represented the state interests of
Azerbaijan. Almost everything he said there, he had said earlier in
his public statements.
The things he did not said in public and just said in these private
talks include two aspects. Azerbaijan allegedly does not want Turkey
to purchase Azerbaijani gas at a lower price and resell it at a high
price. But we already know this is the policy of Azerbaijan. However,
President Aliyev has never said this is a sharp form in public. But
it's entirely reasonable and everyone, including the European Union,
understands this. The EU agrees with Baku's position. So there is
nothing terrible in this.
Meanwhile, the second aspect, which the president might have said less
harshly in public, is related to relations between Azerbaijan and
Iran. The president attempted to explain to the US negotiators that
the relations between Azerbaijan and Iran are not so clear. On the one
hand, Iran is a strong country and important neighbour and partner,
and in this connection Azerbaijan has many common interests with it,
but on the other hand there are potential threats coming from Iran to
Azerbaijan. The president described these potential threats. This is
also a very reasonable and balanced position. The president takes care
of the interests of his country and this is quite natural. The
representatives of other states, quoted by WikiLeaks, say anything at
all, insult others, just waste time in these empty, sometimes abusive,
talks on WikiLeaks. President Aliyev's words are different. He does
not insult or waste time, he talks about specifics.
The Turkish press have interpreted Ilham Aliyev's remarks quoted on
WikiLeaks as if he is against Turkey's transformation into a big
transit country. How would you comment on this?
As far as I understand it, this is a great misunderstanding in the
Turkish press after WikiLeaks. This is completely untrue. Experts on
energy have understood what President Aliyev said. In reality, he said
Azerbaijan is against Turkey buying Azerbaijani gas cheaply in the
East and then reselling it at a high price in the West. This would
mean that in this case Turkey would be distribution hub. In other
words, it's is a country that has no gas, buys it cheaply and resells
it at a higher price and keeps gas in underground gas reservoirs.
This is Azerbaijan's position, which is supported by the EU.
Azerbaijan completely supports Turkey's growth into a major transit
country and this is quite a different issue. This means that
Azerbaijan will have direct contact with Azerbaijani gas consumers in
Europe via Turkey. Meanwhile, Turkey offers transit services for which
it receives transit income from Azerbaijan.
This is a concept of the European Union and Azerbaijan is in favour of
it. There are no cases in Europe of a country importing gas and
reselling it at a higher price. European countries offer transit
services for a specific fee.
This is what President Aliyev said, judging from WikiLeaks. But
journalists who are not specialists in energy did not understand the
word hub, used by the Azerbaijani leader. In addition, Azerbaijan
really wants Turkey to be a big transit country, including for
Azerbaijani oil and Azerbaijani gas. Azerbaijan has launched the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipelines for Turkey to
become a transit country, including for Azerbaijani resources. No
country wants to depend on one energy corridor and Azerbaijan is no
exception. Azerbaijan, as President Aliyev said, like any other
country does not want to `put all its all eggs in one basket'. This
practice is applied everywhere and there is no reason for Turkey to be
angry about what is quite normal. Even Turkey wants to import energy
via different corridors, not only from Azerbaijan but also from Russia
and Iran. Thus, this scandal in the Turkish press has no grounds. I
think there are people that are interested in spoiling relations
between Turkey and Azerbaijan. But Turkish public opinion should
understand the gap between a distribution centre and a transit country
and should understand the concept of the diversification of corridors
both from the Azerbaijani side and Turkey.
Leyla Tagiyeva
From: A. Papazian