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STEPANAKERT- SARAJEVO?
NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
Lragir.am
08 Dec 2010
The Karabakh issue settlement, after the OSCE Summit in Astana,
turned into a process of trying to hold back Azerbaijan from war. All
kind of statements in this connection underline the necessity of
a peace settlement. Some experts, on the contrary, affirm that the
international community, insisting on peace settlement, is pushing
persistently Azerbaijan to war - "the only way to solve the NKR
dispute".
Equalization of the principles of territorial integrity (x) and right
to self-determination (y) brought about the fact that legal arguments
lost their significance in the settlement. No legal arguments are
heard in the negotiations. If x=y, so x-y=0. This means that the
issue settlement cannot be viewed at the plane of international right.
Azerbaijan does not hide that it is no longer going to lose time on
quarrels about the principles of the Helsinki Final Act, which even
according to the assessments of experts, are expired. Baku prefers
medieval methods - military revenge. The other day it was reported
that Baku is getting ready for a "counter-terrorist operation" in
Nagorno-Karabakh. Yesterday in Armenia the first reading of a law
allowing Armenia to sign military and political agreements with the
unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh was held. This means that if Azerbaijan
encroaches on the security of Karabakh, Armenia will intervene in
the war.
The whole issue is what the reaction of the international community
to such a course of events will be. Many experts think that the
co-chairs of the Minsk group in fact opened a way to hostilities
fixing the failure of the Minsk group activities in Astana.
There are opinions that the international community, which recognized
the "wear" of the principle of territorial integrity and current world
order, decided to make a regular redrawing of borders in the world.
Karabakh is the best "hotbed" for inspiring global military action
as a result of which it is possible to fix new boundaries, since it
lies at the junction of the countries, "subject to redrawing". It
is obvious that if Azerbaijan starts a war, Armenia will intervene,
which will entail the placement of Russian "peacekeeper-border
guards". Iran will not stand by, who has a long border with Karabakh,
and then a NATO "mission" will unexpectedly land on this border. This
course of events, on a plan, should cause a reaction in Turkey which,
in case of intervention, may be dismembered - and then the issue of
Kurdistan will be resolved.
This scenario, despite many parts of it are just hypotheses, is more
than realistic. But, no one asked the opinion of Karabakh, whether it
wants to become a new Sarajevo, from which the First World War stared.
The Russian mass media means are lauding about the soonest possible
war, as if war preparations are to be held in Moscow.
From: A. Papazian
NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
Lragir.am
08 Dec 2010
The Karabakh issue settlement, after the OSCE Summit in Astana,
turned into a process of trying to hold back Azerbaijan from war. All
kind of statements in this connection underline the necessity of
a peace settlement. Some experts, on the contrary, affirm that the
international community, insisting on peace settlement, is pushing
persistently Azerbaijan to war - "the only way to solve the NKR
dispute".
Equalization of the principles of territorial integrity (x) and right
to self-determination (y) brought about the fact that legal arguments
lost their significance in the settlement. No legal arguments are
heard in the negotiations. If x=y, so x-y=0. This means that the
issue settlement cannot be viewed at the plane of international right.
Azerbaijan does not hide that it is no longer going to lose time on
quarrels about the principles of the Helsinki Final Act, which even
according to the assessments of experts, are expired. Baku prefers
medieval methods - military revenge. The other day it was reported
that Baku is getting ready for a "counter-terrorist operation" in
Nagorno-Karabakh. Yesterday in Armenia the first reading of a law
allowing Armenia to sign military and political agreements with the
unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh was held. This means that if Azerbaijan
encroaches on the security of Karabakh, Armenia will intervene in
the war.
The whole issue is what the reaction of the international community
to such a course of events will be. Many experts think that the
co-chairs of the Minsk group in fact opened a way to hostilities
fixing the failure of the Minsk group activities in Astana.
There are opinions that the international community, which recognized
the "wear" of the principle of territorial integrity and current world
order, decided to make a regular redrawing of borders in the world.
Karabakh is the best "hotbed" for inspiring global military action
as a result of which it is possible to fix new boundaries, since it
lies at the junction of the countries, "subject to redrawing". It
is obvious that if Azerbaijan starts a war, Armenia will intervene,
which will entail the placement of Russian "peacekeeper-border
guards". Iran will not stand by, who has a long border with Karabakh,
and then a NATO "mission" will unexpectedly land on this border. This
course of events, on a plan, should cause a reaction in Turkey which,
in case of intervention, may be dismembered - and then the issue of
Kurdistan will be resolved.
This scenario, despite many parts of it are just hypotheses, is more
than realistic. But, no one asked the opinion of Karabakh, whether it
wants to become a new Sarajevo, from which the First World War stared.
The Russian mass media means are lauding about the soonest possible
war, as if war preparations are to be held in Moscow.
From: A. Papazian