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THE ARMENIAN RESOLUTION STRIKES BACK
by Omer Taspinar
Today's Zaman
Dec 20 2010
Turkey
The season for the regular tension between Ankara and Washington came
earlier than expected. We should not be surprised if Turkish-American
relations soon enter "crisis management" mode.
The issue at hand will once again be the usual predicament: the
Armenian genocide resolution. Every year it is the same story. The
sense of deja vu is becoming painfully cyclical. Despite this familiar
routine, there are a couple of factors changing the dynamics this
year. The first one is the early timing. The Armenian issue usually
enters the agenda before April 24, the date for "Genocide Remembrance
Day".
Considerable pressure on the president of the United States begins
usually a few weeks in advance by congressional attempts to pass a
non-binding resolution first from the Committee on Foreign Relations
and then from the floor of the US House of Representatives. Earlier
this year, as you will remember, the resolution narrowly passed the
House committee with just one vote. So, it was up to Speaker of the
House Nancy Pelosi, from the Democratic Party, to bring the resolution
to the floor for a vote. Pelosi did not do so, probably because of the
busy political agenda of the House and perhaps because the resolution
did not have the support it needed to pass. I was personally surprised
that she did not try before the November mid-term elections.
The circumstances appeared optimal around September. The Democrats
desperately needed all the votes they could get from the American
people. The Armenian lobby also must have had a sense of urgency. It
was obvious that the Republicans would win and that chances of an
Armenian genocide resolution would diminish. And, of course, most
importantly, there was the dismal state of Turkish-American relations.
After all, it is no secret that Turkey's image in the American Congress
hit an all-time low this year. Over the last six months, two major
developments poisoned Turkey's perception among US legislators.
The first was Turkey's identification as a close ally of Iran.
Turkey's "no" vote in the United Nations Security Council concerning
sanctions against Iran not only damaged its already tainted image in
Congress, but it also infuriated the Obama Administration.
The day before Turkey voted no, President Barack Obama called
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and tried to convince
him during a 45-minute conversation to vote either "yes" together
with the transatlantic (NATO plus EU) community or in the very worst
case abstain. The fact that Turkey voted the way it did clearly
demonstrated that Ankara was more concerned about its leverage with
Iran or its relations with Brazil than setting back its relations
with Washington on a very critical issue for which President Obama
had spent considerable political capital.
To expect that there would be no consequences for defying the American
agenda in such a blatant way is naive. In that sense, there is nothing
surprising in the way the Armenian issue will become more difficult
to surmount. The second development, which somewhat unfairly turned
Turkey's image from bad to worse, is the Mavi Marmara incident.
Despite the fact that Turkish citizens were killed by Israeli soldiers
in international waters, the whole affair came to be seen by the US
Congress as pro-Iran and pro-Hamas and as Turkey challenging Israel.
Given the influence of the pro-Israel lobby in Washington and
particularly in Congress, it should not be surprising that Turkey's
version of the story falls on deaf ears.
At the end of the day, on two crucial issues - Iran and Israel -
Turkey is on the wrong side of the House of Representatives. Under such
circumstances, the Armenian lobby should not face a major challenge
getting its way in passing the genocide resolutio n. Now, just before
Christmas, Pelosi must be calculating that there is one last chance
before the new House, with its new Republican majority, begins the
new year. We will see on Tuesday if the House of Representatives will
have the numbers and the will to vote on this issue. The next couple of
days will be critical. Needless to say, the whole situation is highly
embarrassing for a country like Turkey, with such high ambitions on
the world stage.
From: A. Papazian
by Omer Taspinar
Today's Zaman
Dec 20 2010
Turkey
The season for the regular tension between Ankara and Washington came
earlier than expected. We should not be surprised if Turkish-American
relations soon enter "crisis management" mode.
The issue at hand will once again be the usual predicament: the
Armenian genocide resolution. Every year it is the same story. The
sense of deja vu is becoming painfully cyclical. Despite this familiar
routine, there are a couple of factors changing the dynamics this
year. The first one is the early timing. The Armenian issue usually
enters the agenda before April 24, the date for "Genocide Remembrance
Day".
Considerable pressure on the president of the United States begins
usually a few weeks in advance by congressional attempts to pass a
non-binding resolution first from the Committee on Foreign Relations
and then from the floor of the US House of Representatives. Earlier
this year, as you will remember, the resolution narrowly passed the
House committee with just one vote. So, it was up to Speaker of the
House Nancy Pelosi, from the Democratic Party, to bring the resolution
to the floor for a vote. Pelosi did not do so, probably because of the
busy political agenda of the House and perhaps because the resolution
did not have the support it needed to pass. I was personally surprised
that she did not try before the November mid-term elections.
The circumstances appeared optimal around September. The Democrats
desperately needed all the votes they could get from the American
people. The Armenian lobby also must have had a sense of urgency. It
was obvious that the Republicans would win and that chances of an
Armenian genocide resolution would diminish. And, of course, most
importantly, there was the dismal state of Turkish-American relations.
After all, it is no secret that Turkey's image in the American Congress
hit an all-time low this year. Over the last six months, two major
developments poisoned Turkey's perception among US legislators.
The first was Turkey's identification as a close ally of Iran.
Turkey's "no" vote in the United Nations Security Council concerning
sanctions against Iran not only damaged its already tainted image in
Congress, but it also infuriated the Obama Administration.
The day before Turkey voted no, President Barack Obama called
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and tried to convince
him during a 45-minute conversation to vote either "yes" together
with the transatlantic (NATO plus EU) community or in the very worst
case abstain. The fact that Turkey voted the way it did clearly
demonstrated that Ankara was more concerned about its leverage with
Iran or its relations with Brazil than setting back its relations
with Washington on a very critical issue for which President Obama
had spent considerable political capital.
To expect that there would be no consequences for defying the American
agenda in such a blatant way is naive. In that sense, there is nothing
surprising in the way the Armenian issue will become more difficult
to surmount. The second development, which somewhat unfairly turned
Turkey's image from bad to worse, is the Mavi Marmara incident.
Despite the fact that Turkish citizens were killed by Israeli soldiers
in international waters, the whole affair came to be seen by the US
Congress as pro-Iran and pro-Hamas and as Turkey challenging Israel.
Given the influence of the pro-Israel lobby in Washington and
particularly in Congress, it should not be surprising that Turkey's
version of the story falls on deaf ears.
At the end of the day, on two crucial issues - Iran and Israel -
Turkey is on the wrong side of the House of Representatives. Under such
circumstances, the Armenian lobby should not face a major challenge
getting its way in passing the genocide resolutio n. Now, just before
Christmas, Pelosi must be calculating that there is one last chance
before the new House, with its new Republican majority, begins the
new year. We will see on Tuesday if the House of Representatives will
have the numbers and the will to vote on this issue. The next couple of
days will be critical. Needless to say, the whole situation is highly
embarrassing for a country like Turkey, with such high ambitions on
the world stage.
From: A. Papazian