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Nagorno Karabakh Formula Of War And Peace

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  • Nagorno Karabakh Formula Of War And Peace

    NAGORNO-KARABAKH FORMULA OF WAR AND PEACE

    WPS Agency
    DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
    February 8, 2010 Monday
    Russia

    HIGHLIGHT: AMBASSADOR OF AZERBAIJAN IN RUSSIA CALLED ON DIASPORA TO
    GET READY FOR AN ARMED RESOLVING OF THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT;
    Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed to stick to the old principles of the
    Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolving. However, they did not achieve
    a breakthrough at the negotiations.

    Negotiations of the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia Ilham Aliyev
    and Serzh Sargsian are evaluated positively on the official Russian
    level. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that agreement
    of the parties to draw their formulations of old principles of the
    conflict resolving in writing was the main result of the negotiations.

    Along with this, it is clear to everyone that there has been no
    breakthrough.

    The public and the politicians of Armenia, Azerbaijan and
    Nagorno-Karabakh actively criticize the contact of Medvedev, Aliyev
    and Sargsian of the last week.

    Baku considers the status of Nagorno-Karabakh under condition of
    preserving of the main principle of "indivisibility of its territory."

    Yerevan and Stepanakert do not agree with such stance and see the
    future of Nagorno-Karabakh outside of Azerbaijan.

    Reconciliation of Baku and Yerevan on the basis of "Madrid principles"
    means that the conflict between the parties is over. However, there is
    no agreement yet. Already after the meeting in Sochi Defense Minister
    of Armenia Seiran Oganian said that "self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh
    cannot return to Azerbaijan." Along with this, Oganian announced
    proudly that "today the Armenian army is one of the most combat
    capable in the region" and is ready to parry any aggression. There
    is no need to guess whose aggression Oganian is going to parry. It
    is aggression of Azerbaijan.

    Really, facts show that leader of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev agrees with
    persuasion of Moscow and Washington to have peaceful dialog dedicated
    to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem but hints at a possible military
    scenario of the conflict resolving more actively. On the eve of the
    meeting in Sochi he announced that "the army of Azerbaijan has all
    possibilities to liberate the occupied territories." Aliyev does not
    hide achievements in the military development of Azerbaijan.

    Preparation for a possible military Azerbaijani blitzkrieg against
    Armenia is manifested by the statement of Ambassador of Azerbaijan
    to Russia Polad Byul-Byul Ogly. He stated frankly that "The time of
    resolving of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has already come." Having
    reminded that the largest Azerbaijani Diaspora is in Russia, he pointed
    out, "If someone thinks that the can stay home while the army takes
    the occupied territories back, this will not happen. The whole nation
    should rise, get united and liberate the territories."

    What will happen if a new Armenian-Azerbaijani war begins? Despite the
    growing might of Azerbaijan, its army leaves much to be desired still.

    If the war starts this year the chances of Azerbaijani forces to take
    Nagorno-Karabakh will not be big. Russia and the US will have negative
    reaction to beginning of hostilities on the part of Baku. Armenia
    will definitely receive moral and diplomatic air and possibility
    a military one. Moscow and Washington will try to "neutralize"
    Turkey immediately, although it will evidently provide military
    aid to Azerbaijan anyway. There is a probability of insertion of UN
    peacekeepers or NATO forces into the region. This is extremely not
    beneficial for Russia. To outrun the process peacekeeping forces of
    collective raid-response forces will be inserted into the conflict zone
    under the Collective Security Treaty Organization flag. The military
    conflict will possibly paralyze transportation of Caspian hydrocarbons
    to Turkey and towards the Black Sea. That is why activeness of the US
    in resoling or localization of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict will be
    the biggest. Russian authorities should bear this into account too
    to defend their geopolitical interests in the South Caucasus.
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