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THE WILLING MEDIATOR AND/OR THE TROJAN HORSE
Hurriyet
Feb 9 2010
Turkey
War may sometimes be a necessity, a path to peace or, as in the words
of American satirist Ambrose Bierce, God's way to teach Americans
geography, or it may even be "engagement by another name." But
certainly war on Iran is certainly something undesired by almost
everyone.
Mediation is one way to prevent wars. It's almost always costless
whether or not it prevents wars. And sometimes it may even work! If
mediation had been an industry Turkey's per capita income would
probably have tripled by now. A few days ago a friend was joking that
he was confidently waiting for Ahmet Davutoglu, the foreign minister,
to knock on his door one of these days and offer his good offices
to mediate between him and his stubborn tenant who refuses to vacate
land despite a court warrant.
I personally would not be surprised if Turkey offered to mediate
between Turkey and Israel, or if Mr. Davutoglu launched a General
Directorate for Mediation at the Foreign Ministry. In reality it would
have been much nicer if Mr. Davutoglu's boss, Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan, genuinely mediated between pious and less pious Turks.
But the Turks may soon have to ask Israel to mediate between Turkey
and Howard Berman, an American Jew and the Democratic chairman
of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, particularly because the
congressional panel will vote next month on a resolution to label
the World War I-era massacre of Armenians as genocide.
Moreover, mediation-mania seems to be contagious. I would not be
surprised either if Greece, which has "increasingly warmer ties
with Israel and traditionally strong ties with Syria," appeared
on the mediation market with a view to replace Turkey as an honest
broker between Tel Aviv and Damascus. In return, Israel can offer
its good offices to mediate between Turkey and Greece, while Syria
can always mediate between Turkey and Israel to salvage the dying
Turkish-Israeli partnership. Like any other business, the mediation
business is increasingly looking like a joke.
But let's leave the endless realm of mediation and go back to Iran.
This is the picture from the perspective of the Crescent and Star:
Ankara - as always - wants to mediate. But James Jeffrey, U.S.
ambassador to Ankara, is "skeptical Turkey can persuade Iran to
abandon any ambitions it might have for a nuclear bomb." Meanwhile,
the Iranians keep on repeating that "they would not need any third
country's services to talk to any country."
What other input comes into the picture? Turkey is the most stable
country Washington can rely on - as some Americans think. And Iran's
president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, happens to be a "very good friend"
of Mr. Erdogan who has declared Iran's nuclear program as being
"merely gossip."
Complicated? Refer to the panacea called mediation. There are two
possibilities at this stage: 1) Turkish efforts to mediate between the
United States and Iran are genuine. They are NOT part of a "concerted
action" planned jointly - and privately - by Ankara and Washington,
and 2) Turkey is faking as an honest broker in favor of the Americans,
and hopes to make gains out of its role as a modern day Trojan horse.
So, the Turkish mediation fetish, especially when directed at Iran,
IS part of a concerted action against Iran.
If it's (1), Turkish mediation will not succeed primarily because it
will not happen, and even if it did, Turkey does not have the power
and leverage on Iran for the moral persuasion the duty would require.
And, if it's (2), be prepared for failure again, because the mullahs
are not as naïve as the Israelis who have successfully mis-located Mr.
Erdogan's ideology. Any scenario based on the childish assumption that
the Iranians will trust Turkey because of Mr. Erdogan's increasingly
pro-Islamic/anti-Israeli rhetoric in foreign policy is doomed to fail.
If there is a Turkish Trojan horse in this part of the world Tehran
will be the first capital to suspect and spot it.
And beware of a United Nations vote on sanctions on Iran. It might
be like a fire destroying the wooden disguise for the Trojan Horse
and unveiling the warriors hidden inside. How will Turkey, the U.N.
Security Council's non-permanent member, vote if the council took up a
vote on fresh sanctions on Iran soon? Shyly smile and disappear? Vote
"yes"? Vote "no"? No doubt, the least probable is a "yes" vote -
and that would be the Trojan horse galloping!
All the same, a vote and Turkey coming under the spotlight will not
be the end of the world. In case the global powers thought there is
something wrong with the Turkish attitude, Turkey can always mediate
between Turkey and the Council to find a compromise.
Hurriyet
Feb 9 2010
Turkey
War may sometimes be a necessity, a path to peace or, as in the words
of American satirist Ambrose Bierce, God's way to teach Americans
geography, or it may even be "engagement by another name." But
certainly war on Iran is certainly something undesired by almost
everyone.
Mediation is one way to prevent wars. It's almost always costless
whether or not it prevents wars. And sometimes it may even work! If
mediation had been an industry Turkey's per capita income would
probably have tripled by now. A few days ago a friend was joking that
he was confidently waiting for Ahmet Davutoglu, the foreign minister,
to knock on his door one of these days and offer his good offices
to mediate between him and his stubborn tenant who refuses to vacate
land despite a court warrant.
I personally would not be surprised if Turkey offered to mediate
between Turkey and Israel, or if Mr. Davutoglu launched a General
Directorate for Mediation at the Foreign Ministry. In reality it would
have been much nicer if Mr. Davutoglu's boss, Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan, genuinely mediated between pious and less pious Turks.
But the Turks may soon have to ask Israel to mediate between Turkey
and Howard Berman, an American Jew and the Democratic chairman
of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, particularly because the
congressional panel will vote next month on a resolution to label
the World War I-era massacre of Armenians as genocide.
Moreover, mediation-mania seems to be contagious. I would not be
surprised either if Greece, which has "increasingly warmer ties
with Israel and traditionally strong ties with Syria," appeared
on the mediation market with a view to replace Turkey as an honest
broker between Tel Aviv and Damascus. In return, Israel can offer
its good offices to mediate between Turkey and Greece, while Syria
can always mediate between Turkey and Israel to salvage the dying
Turkish-Israeli partnership. Like any other business, the mediation
business is increasingly looking like a joke.
But let's leave the endless realm of mediation and go back to Iran.
This is the picture from the perspective of the Crescent and Star:
Ankara - as always - wants to mediate. But James Jeffrey, U.S.
ambassador to Ankara, is "skeptical Turkey can persuade Iran to
abandon any ambitions it might have for a nuclear bomb." Meanwhile,
the Iranians keep on repeating that "they would not need any third
country's services to talk to any country."
What other input comes into the picture? Turkey is the most stable
country Washington can rely on - as some Americans think. And Iran's
president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, happens to be a "very good friend"
of Mr. Erdogan who has declared Iran's nuclear program as being
"merely gossip."
Complicated? Refer to the panacea called mediation. There are two
possibilities at this stage: 1) Turkish efforts to mediate between the
United States and Iran are genuine. They are NOT part of a "concerted
action" planned jointly - and privately - by Ankara and Washington,
and 2) Turkey is faking as an honest broker in favor of the Americans,
and hopes to make gains out of its role as a modern day Trojan horse.
So, the Turkish mediation fetish, especially when directed at Iran,
IS part of a concerted action against Iran.
If it's (1), Turkish mediation will not succeed primarily because it
will not happen, and even if it did, Turkey does not have the power
and leverage on Iran for the moral persuasion the duty would require.
And, if it's (2), be prepared for failure again, because the mullahs
are not as naïve as the Israelis who have successfully mis-located Mr.
Erdogan's ideology. Any scenario based on the childish assumption that
the Iranians will trust Turkey because of Mr. Erdogan's increasingly
pro-Islamic/anti-Israeli rhetoric in foreign policy is doomed to fail.
If there is a Turkish Trojan horse in this part of the world Tehran
will be the first capital to suspect and spot it.
And beware of a United Nations vote on sanctions on Iran. It might
be like a fire destroying the wooden disguise for the Trojan Horse
and unveiling the warriors hidden inside. How will Turkey, the U.N.
Security Council's non-permanent member, vote if the council took up a
vote on fresh sanctions on Iran soon? Shyly smile and disappear? Vote
"yes"? Vote "no"? No doubt, the least probable is a "yes" vote -
and that would be the Trojan horse galloping!
All the same, a vote and Turkey coming under the spotlight will not
be the end of the world. In case the global powers thought there is
something wrong with the Turkish attitude, Turkey can always mediate
between Turkey and the Council to find a compromise.