Tweet
Azadliq, Azerbaijan
Feb 4 2010
The USA begins to act in the Southern Caucasus
What makes anxious Moscow and Baku?
A rapprochement between Russia and Azerbaijan has triggered an
expected reaction in the West. At the same time, Russia 's negative
approach towards growing Turkish role in the region has also come on
the US radar. A plan of the managing-director of NABUCCO to discuss
this issue in all partner to the project countries led to an
impression that the West is again placing the energy issue in the
forefront, targeting the removal of all the anxieties in this sphere.
Consequently, when commenting on this issue, Azerbaijani officials do
not forget to underline Russia's considerable influence in the region.
Nevertheless, the discussions related to the region at the US
intelligence committee and the visit of the US Undersecretary of State
to the region, in particular, his visit to Munich to meet [President]
Ilham Aliyev enable us to say that the West is completely anxious
about Russia's growing active role. So we are now observing outlines
of the US reaction to Russia's new eastern bloc. The Azerbaijani
government will have to naturally respond to certain questions why the
situation has reached this level. We wonder, will the West suffice
itself to those responses? This issue also remains pressing. To tell
the truth, the key issue stands as following: given the current state
of affairs, what could remove concerns of the USA?
A crystal clear strategy...
At all levels the Azerbaijani authorities have maintained such a
position that as if it is neither useful nor beneficial to cooperate
with the West. Highlighting Russia's special weight in the region,
they drew attention to the fact that they have handed all the levers
over to the Kremlin. For its part, the USA has made it clear for
itself that it is already impossible to work with Aliyev. As Aliyev
does not only fulfils minimum with Russia but also comes up with all
initiatives to bring the relations with the Kremlin to the highest
point. He proposes Baku as a capital for Moscow's cultural and
educational campaign. In its turn, this is a sign that the last bridge
between Aliyev Jr. and the USA "has been blown up". The Azerbaijani
authorities as a bright political team and a guarantor of Russia's
interests in the South Caucasus played a complex role. Ilham Aliyev
did not visit Georgia . In his turn, [the head of the public and
political department at the Presidential Administration] Ali Hasanov
issued statements, boasting about the size of Russia's impact on
Azerbaijan . [The head of the Presidential Administration] Ramiz
Mehdiyev has introduced Russia as the capital of the new cultural era.
Gazprom was introduced as an alternative in case [the construction of]
NABUCCO [gas pipeline] fails. So the Azerbaijani authorities have
fully outlined their Strategy with regard to the future.
The USA starts with Russia
Some people consider that the USA will have no chance to pay attention
to Azerbaijan as it is engaged with China . In the meantime, seizing
the first opportune moment, official Baku quickens its steps towards
embracing the Kremlin.
It was not wrong. Nevertheless, what has not justified itself is that
the USA did not warn the Azerbaijani authorities. It simply made such
a warning to Russia: "Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev's treatment
of the former Soviet republics as his priority sphere of influence
could shake the relations with Washington." Another interpretation of
such a statement and warning is that Russia with attempts to
imperialism may shake its foundation. If we add the Russian finance
minister's ongoing statement in the media over the need for funding
from the West, it may become obvious that there are sufficient basis
for Russia to learn a lesson from the US warning. Or, if they do not
draw a relevant conclusion, rather tough economic situation will await
Russia . Given this, what expects the Azerbaijani authorities? We
assume Ali Hasanov thinks about it? As he knows who is who and what
they can.
Why is a US official looking for Aliyev?
Ilham Aliyev visited Munich to attend an ordinary event on the eve of
the visit of the US deputy secretary of state to the region. However,
the US official will return to Munich to meet him to deliver his
bosses' message to him of course, if Ilham Aliyev does not
unexpectedly visit another country ahead of the visit of the US
diplomat. Some years ago, when then Secretary of Defence Donald
Rumsfeld visited Baku to meet Ilham Aliyev, the latter paid an
unexpected visit to Pakistan . He then did not sit idle and pursued
Aliyev and managed to meet him in Pakistan. If Ali Hasanov also knows
that the USA is the superpower, how successful it is for Ilham Aliyev
to avoid meetings with politicians of that country, I have no answer
to this question. However, this time the US is set to investigate and
resolve everything comprehensively.
Why does a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement increase the risk of war?
The head of the US National Intelligence said: "Turkey and Armenia
have recently made a progress in their bid for the reconciliation.
This rapprochement has also had an impact the sensitive relations
between Armenia and Azerbaijan. And this contributes to the risk of
regulating the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict."
A short while ago Azadliq newspaper carried a commentary saying
Armenia's intention to establish close relations with Turkey will
bring Azerbaijan strategically closer to Russia. One of the key
reasons behind this rapprochement is Russia's interest to remain in
the South Caucasus and efforts of the Azerbaijani authorities to
maximum preserve the current status quo.
Thus, seeing the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia, Russia may
persuade Yerevan to avoid occupying policy and again make attempts to
flare up the conflict. As a result, the closest ally may benefit from
the existence of the conflict, i.e. the Azerbaijani government. Under
the current situation, as the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia
has brought peace to the horizon, it may worry Russia and official
Baku and flare the conflict up again. What the US official said was
the confirmation of Azadliq's report.
[translated from Azeri]
Feb 4 2010
The USA begins to act in the Southern Caucasus
What makes anxious Moscow and Baku?
A rapprochement between Russia and Azerbaijan has triggered an
expected reaction in the West. At the same time, Russia 's negative
approach towards growing Turkish role in the region has also come on
the US radar. A plan of the managing-director of NABUCCO to discuss
this issue in all partner to the project countries led to an
impression that the West is again placing the energy issue in the
forefront, targeting the removal of all the anxieties in this sphere.
Consequently, when commenting on this issue, Azerbaijani officials do
not forget to underline Russia's considerable influence in the region.
Nevertheless, the discussions related to the region at the US
intelligence committee and the visit of the US Undersecretary of State
to the region, in particular, his visit to Munich to meet [President]
Ilham Aliyev enable us to say that the West is completely anxious
about Russia's growing active role. So we are now observing outlines
of the US reaction to Russia's new eastern bloc. The Azerbaijani
government will have to naturally respond to certain questions why the
situation has reached this level. We wonder, will the West suffice
itself to those responses? This issue also remains pressing. To tell
the truth, the key issue stands as following: given the current state
of affairs, what could remove concerns of the USA?
A crystal clear strategy...
At all levels the Azerbaijani authorities have maintained such a
position that as if it is neither useful nor beneficial to cooperate
with the West. Highlighting Russia's special weight in the region,
they drew attention to the fact that they have handed all the levers
over to the Kremlin. For its part, the USA has made it clear for
itself that it is already impossible to work with Aliyev. As Aliyev
does not only fulfils minimum with Russia but also comes up with all
initiatives to bring the relations with the Kremlin to the highest
point. He proposes Baku as a capital for Moscow's cultural and
educational campaign. In its turn, this is a sign that the last bridge
between Aliyev Jr. and the USA "has been blown up". The Azerbaijani
authorities as a bright political team and a guarantor of Russia's
interests in the South Caucasus played a complex role. Ilham Aliyev
did not visit Georgia . In his turn, [the head of the public and
political department at the Presidential Administration] Ali Hasanov
issued statements, boasting about the size of Russia's impact on
Azerbaijan . [The head of the Presidential Administration] Ramiz
Mehdiyev has introduced Russia as the capital of the new cultural era.
Gazprom was introduced as an alternative in case [the construction of]
NABUCCO [gas pipeline] fails. So the Azerbaijani authorities have
fully outlined their Strategy with regard to the future.
The USA starts with Russia
Some people consider that the USA will have no chance to pay attention
to Azerbaijan as it is engaged with China . In the meantime, seizing
the first opportune moment, official Baku quickens its steps towards
embracing the Kremlin.
It was not wrong. Nevertheless, what has not justified itself is that
the USA did not warn the Azerbaijani authorities. It simply made such
a warning to Russia: "Russian President Dmitriy Medvedev's treatment
of the former Soviet republics as his priority sphere of influence
could shake the relations with Washington." Another interpretation of
such a statement and warning is that Russia with attempts to
imperialism may shake its foundation. If we add the Russian finance
minister's ongoing statement in the media over the need for funding
from the West, it may become obvious that there are sufficient basis
for Russia to learn a lesson from the US warning. Or, if they do not
draw a relevant conclusion, rather tough economic situation will await
Russia . Given this, what expects the Azerbaijani authorities? We
assume Ali Hasanov thinks about it? As he knows who is who and what
they can.
Why is a US official looking for Aliyev?
Ilham Aliyev visited Munich to attend an ordinary event on the eve of
the visit of the US deputy secretary of state to the region. However,
the US official will return to Munich to meet him to deliver his
bosses' message to him of course, if Ilham Aliyev does not
unexpectedly visit another country ahead of the visit of the US
diplomat. Some years ago, when then Secretary of Defence Donald
Rumsfeld visited Baku to meet Ilham Aliyev, the latter paid an
unexpected visit to Pakistan . He then did not sit idle and pursued
Aliyev and managed to meet him in Pakistan. If Ali Hasanov also knows
that the USA is the superpower, how successful it is for Ilham Aliyev
to avoid meetings with politicians of that country, I have no answer
to this question. However, this time the US is set to investigate and
resolve everything comprehensively.
Why does a Turkish-Armenian rapprochement increase the risk of war?
The head of the US National Intelligence said: "Turkey and Armenia
have recently made a progress in their bid for the reconciliation.
This rapprochement has also had an impact the sensitive relations
between Armenia and Azerbaijan. And this contributes to the risk of
regulating the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict."
A short while ago Azadliq newspaper carried a commentary saying
Armenia's intention to establish close relations with Turkey will
bring Azerbaijan strategically closer to Russia. One of the key
reasons behind this rapprochement is Russia's interest to remain in
the South Caucasus and efforts of the Azerbaijani authorities to
maximum preserve the current status quo.
Thus, seeing the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia, Russia may
persuade Yerevan to avoid occupying policy and again make attempts to
flare up the conflict. As a result, the closest ally may benefit from
the existence of the conflict, i.e. the Azerbaijani government. Under
the current situation, as the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia
has brought peace to the horizon, it may worry Russia and official
Baku and flare the conflict up again. What the US official said was
the confirmation of Azadliq's report.
[translated from Azeri]