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CAN OBAMA ENDURE THE CONSEQUENCES OF A GENOCIDE RESOLUTION?
Hurriyet
http://www.hurriyetdailynews .com/n.php?n=will-obama-endure-the-consequences-of -a-genocide-resolution-2010-02-22
Feb 22 2010
Turkey
As "Davutoglu diplomacy" regarding the Iranian nuclear program "hits
high speed," as the Hurriyet Daily News & Economic Review recently
reported, Turkey now officially confirms it has multiple proposals
in its hands for a peaceful resolution to the problem. And as the
daily Zaman reported, the Turkish administration reckons these new
developments regarding Iran can only be discussed on the leaders'
level. According to Ankara, in this approach, the Turkish leadership
speaks the same language as United States President Barack Obama does,
and the American diplomats in between do not have the sort of savvy
to elaborate these proposals back to their administration.
There is no question that Turkey, amid increasing its profile over the
Iranian issue in the international diplomatic arena, is also trying to
convince their American counterparts how valuable an ally it is for
U.S. national security on many fronts at the same time there is only
one week left until the March 4 vote at the House Foreign Relations
Committee over the Armenian genocide resolution (H.Res.252).
On the street, ordinary Americans are fully unaware of the resolution.
While America is striving to wind down the war in Iraq, it is
escalating the other one in Afghanistan which brought down the Jan
Balkanende government in the Netherlands as a latest casualty. This
development is "raising fears that the Western military coalition
fighting the war is increasingly at risk," the New York Times noted.
On the other hand, the heavyweight Wall Street Journal and conservative
Washington Times editorials in the last week openly started to call
for a military solution for the Iranian problem.
Domestically, Washington cannot overcome its deepening political
divisions, now that it is clear the opposition Republican forces
have nothing to lose in saying "no" to about everything the Obama
administration proposes. On the contrary, so far, staying firmly
in the opposition brought big bonuses for the Republicans, such as
the Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts election wins, along with
plummeting Obama job approval ratings, now below the 50s, according
to the latest CNN polls.
In parallel, one of the biggest annual gatherings of American
conservatives, the American Conservative Union's Conservative Political
Action Conference, drew about ten thousand energized supporters to
Washington, and they chanted frantically about Obama as a one-term
president.
Though Obama and Congress' agenda is jumbled with endless fights over
America's problems, the Armenian-American diaspora organizations now
see some real prospects for a successful genocide passage, first at
the Committee level then in the General Assembly.
While the Obama administration has had very little or no progress
related to foreign affairs, it presented Obama's prior push and
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's efforts during signing the
protocols between Turkey and Armenia as one of the U.S.' achievements.
Therefore, the question is whether Obama would allow the looming
Armenian Genocide Resolution to pass early March, then let the process
play itself out. Bearing such a move, without a question, would set
back the solid U.S.-Turkey relationships that were accelerated by
Obama's first bilateral visit to Turkey last April as well as the
normalization process between Turkey and Armenia, which has admittedly
been in slow motion for a while.
I asked Bryan Ardouny, executive director of the Armenian Assembly
of America in Washington, if he saw the protocols and the Armenian
Genocide Resolution as linked. His response was "absolutely not."
Ardouny further stated, "U.S. reaffirmation should not be held hostage
to normalization of relations between Armenia and Turkey."
When asked about the difference between this year and last year
when Obama skipped using the word "genocide," Ardouny indicated,
"President Obama has made it clear that his views on the Armenian
Genocide have not changed. In this, the 95th anniversary year, the
President has an important opportunity to deliver on his repeated
pledge [to recognize] the Armenian Genocide."
Jewish lobbies are neutral this year
While it is a matter of discussing how effective the Jewish lobbying
forces are when it comes to this issue, considering that besides
then-Representative Robert Wexler, other American-Jewish members of
the House Foreign Relations Committee voted for the resolution last
time around anyway; still, one should not belittle their effectiveness
in Washington regarding any kind of legislative matters. The recent
statement from Roger Cohen, New York Times columnist, in an interview
for Newsweek shows how Jewish members of the U.S. Congress do not
hesitate to put pressure on Obama for Israel, even over America's
domestic matters. Cohen said, "President Obama, I understand, has
been told by some Jewish congressmen if you want your health bill,
step back on Israel."
According to one leader in the Jewish community, who in the past
was heading one of the Jewish lobby outlets and still is very much
an active figure here in Washington, told me last week, "Members of
Congress do not believe that the normalization process in Turkey and
Armenia is going anywhere. The still-closed borders between the two
countries are a big sign for them. And nobody should expect Jewish
lobbies to put up a fight against the resolution around this time...
Obama does not seem as effective as [former U.S. President George W.]
Bush was over his Republican lawmakers to put up a strong fight. And
there is a good chance for the resolution passing this year."
When I asked how the U.S. can navigate in the region with an angry
Turkey following such an episode, the source acknowledged that
"that would be very difficult... I just don't know how America can
be effective energizing sanctions on Iran without Turkey's strong
support."
One Congressional source, who has a proximity to the AIPAC, a strong,
right-wing Jewish lobby in Washington, stated, "[Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip] Erdogan did not do anything to gain Israel's friendship. Many
of the members of the American Congress tend to look at the region
in a simplistic way. They tend to categorize the countries as friends
and foes. When they see Turkey repeatedly attack Israel, a strong U.S.
friend in the region, they do not view this positively."
While openly stating that AIPAC is not putting up a fight against
the resolution this year, the same source still thinks, "There is
time and room for Turkey to maneuver for the resolution," but stopped
short of explaining how.
Ardouny echoed this sentiment in terms of the Jewish lobbies not
fighting against the resolution, and also pointed out that the
Armenian Genocide resolution enjoys strong support among Jewish
members of Congress.
The Anti-Defamation League, or ADL's, media relations deputy director
Todd Gutnick sent me a statement explaining the ADL's position over
the issue: "[The ADL] firmly believes a Congressional resolution
on the Armenian Genocide is counterproductive. Now that Turkey and
Armenia are engaged in diplomatic discussions, we believe it is up
to the two countries to work toward reconciliation."
When I asked Gutnick over the phone whether the ADL is engaged in a
lobbying fight against the resolution, Gutnick said, "no, we aren't."
Newly created liberal J Street and American Jewish Community, or AJC,
spokespeople also said they are not taking a position over the issue
and lobbying for either side.
One Washington source stated last week he still expects "Turkey to
pull a rabbit out of a hat" when approaching March 4. I, for one,
am closely watching for that hat.
Hurriyet
http://www.hurriyetdailynews .com/n.php?n=will-obama-endure-the-consequences-of -a-genocide-resolution-2010-02-22
Feb 22 2010
Turkey
As "Davutoglu diplomacy" regarding the Iranian nuclear program "hits
high speed," as the Hurriyet Daily News & Economic Review recently
reported, Turkey now officially confirms it has multiple proposals
in its hands for a peaceful resolution to the problem. And as the
daily Zaman reported, the Turkish administration reckons these new
developments regarding Iran can only be discussed on the leaders'
level. According to Ankara, in this approach, the Turkish leadership
speaks the same language as United States President Barack Obama does,
and the American diplomats in between do not have the sort of savvy
to elaborate these proposals back to their administration.
There is no question that Turkey, amid increasing its profile over the
Iranian issue in the international diplomatic arena, is also trying to
convince their American counterparts how valuable an ally it is for
U.S. national security on many fronts at the same time there is only
one week left until the March 4 vote at the House Foreign Relations
Committee over the Armenian genocide resolution (H.Res.252).
On the street, ordinary Americans are fully unaware of the resolution.
While America is striving to wind down the war in Iraq, it is
escalating the other one in Afghanistan which brought down the Jan
Balkanende government in the Netherlands as a latest casualty. This
development is "raising fears that the Western military coalition
fighting the war is increasingly at risk," the New York Times noted.
On the other hand, the heavyweight Wall Street Journal and conservative
Washington Times editorials in the last week openly started to call
for a military solution for the Iranian problem.
Domestically, Washington cannot overcome its deepening political
divisions, now that it is clear the opposition Republican forces
have nothing to lose in saying "no" to about everything the Obama
administration proposes. On the contrary, so far, staying firmly
in the opposition brought big bonuses for the Republicans, such as
the Virginia, New Jersey and Massachusetts election wins, along with
plummeting Obama job approval ratings, now below the 50s, according
to the latest CNN polls.
In parallel, one of the biggest annual gatherings of American
conservatives, the American Conservative Union's Conservative Political
Action Conference, drew about ten thousand energized supporters to
Washington, and they chanted frantically about Obama as a one-term
president.
Though Obama and Congress' agenda is jumbled with endless fights over
America's problems, the Armenian-American diaspora organizations now
see some real prospects for a successful genocide passage, first at
the Committee level then in the General Assembly.
While the Obama administration has had very little or no progress
related to foreign affairs, it presented Obama's prior push and
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's efforts during signing the
protocols between Turkey and Armenia as one of the U.S.' achievements.
Therefore, the question is whether Obama would allow the looming
Armenian Genocide Resolution to pass early March, then let the process
play itself out. Bearing such a move, without a question, would set
back the solid U.S.-Turkey relationships that were accelerated by
Obama's first bilateral visit to Turkey last April as well as the
normalization process between Turkey and Armenia, which has admittedly
been in slow motion for a while.
I asked Bryan Ardouny, executive director of the Armenian Assembly
of America in Washington, if he saw the protocols and the Armenian
Genocide Resolution as linked. His response was "absolutely not."
Ardouny further stated, "U.S. reaffirmation should not be held hostage
to normalization of relations between Armenia and Turkey."
When asked about the difference between this year and last year
when Obama skipped using the word "genocide," Ardouny indicated,
"President Obama has made it clear that his views on the Armenian
Genocide have not changed. In this, the 95th anniversary year, the
President has an important opportunity to deliver on his repeated
pledge [to recognize] the Armenian Genocide."
Jewish lobbies are neutral this year
While it is a matter of discussing how effective the Jewish lobbying
forces are when it comes to this issue, considering that besides
then-Representative Robert Wexler, other American-Jewish members of
the House Foreign Relations Committee voted for the resolution last
time around anyway; still, one should not belittle their effectiveness
in Washington regarding any kind of legislative matters. The recent
statement from Roger Cohen, New York Times columnist, in an interview
for Newsweek shows how Jewish members of the U.S. Congress do not
hesitate to put pressure on Obama for Israel, even over America's
domestic matters. Cohen said, "President Obama, I understand, has
been told by some Jewish congressmen if you want your health bill,
step back on Israel."
According to one leader in the Jewish community, who in the past
was heading one of the Jewish lobby outlets and still is very much
an active figure here in Washington, told me last week, "Members of
Congress do not believe that the normalization process in Turkey and
Armenia is going anywhere. The still-closed borders between the two
countries are a big sign for them. And nobody should expect Jewish
lobbies to put up a fight against the resolution around this time...
Obama does not seem as effective as [former U.S. President George W.]
Bush was over his Republican lawmakers to put up a strong fight. And
there is a good chance for the resolution passing this year."
When I asked how the U.S. can navigate in the region with an angry
Turkey following such an episode, the source acknowledged that
"that would be very difficult... I just don't know how America can
be effective energizing sanctions on Iran without Turkey's strong
support."
One Congressional source, who has a proximity to the AIPAC, a strong,
right-wing Jewish lobby in Washington, stated, "[Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip] Erdogan did not do anything to gain Israel's friendship. Many
of the members of the American Congress tend to look at the region
in a simplistic way. They tend to categorize the countries as friends
and foes. When they see Turkey repeatedly attack Israel, a strong U.S.
friend in the region, they do not view this positively."
While openly stating that AIPAC is not putting up a fight against
the resolution this year, the same source still thinks, "There is
time and room for Turkey to maneuver for the resolution," but stopped
short of explaining how.
Ardouny echoed this sentiment in terms of the Jewish lobbies not
fighting against the resolution, and also pointed out that the
Armenian Genocide resolution enjoys strong support among Jewish
members of Congress.
The Anti-Defamation League, or ADL's, media relations deputy director
Todd Gutnick sent me a statement explaining the ADL's position over
the issue: "[The ADL] firmly believes a Congressional resolution
on the Armenian Genocide is counterproductive. Now that Turkey and
Armenia are engaged in diplomatic discussions, we believe it is up
to the two countries to work toward reconciliation."
When I asked Gutnick over the phone whether the ADL is engaged in a
lobbying fight against the resolution, Gutnick said, "no, we aren't."
Newly created liberal J Street and American Jewish Community, or AJC,
spokespeople also said they are not taking a position over the issue
and lobbying for either side.
One Washington source stated last week he still expects "Turkey to
pull a rabbit out of a hat" when approaching March 4. I, for one,
am closely watching for that hat.