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Caucasian Geopolitical Region: the Past, Present, the Future (II)

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  • Caucasian Geopolitical Region: the Past, Present, the Future (II)

    Caucasian Geopolitical Region: the Past, the Present, and the Future (II)

    en.fondsk.ruEurasia
    27.02.2010
    Nikolai DIMLEVICH

    International organizations working in Chechnya (the International
    Committee of the Red Cross, the Dutch Refugee Council) and the Russian
    NGOs (Memorial, Council of NGOs, etc.) are collecting biased
    information about `kidnappings and executions without trials'
    allegedly perpetrated by the federal forces in the process of the past
    armed conflict in the republic. The plan behind the activities is to
    prepare the grounds for establishing `an international tribunal for
    Chechnya' akin to the International Criminal Tribunal for the former
    Yugoslavia.

    The above groups focus on the disappearance of some 5,000 Chechens
    since 1994 but ignore entirely the fact that large numbers of Russians
    perished in Chechnya in 1991-1994 when the republic was run by Dzh.
    Dudaev and A. Maskhadov. They also disregard the problem of searching
    for the hostages still held in Chechnya.

    In a disguised form, the populations of North Caucasian republics are
    taught to believe that Russia committed `genocide' against the peoples
    of the Caucasus and incorporated the territories of its present-day
    republics by force. Accordingly, the message being sent to the
    international community is that the peoples of the Caucasus should be
    protected from Russia.

    Recently there has been a surge of activity of various Adyg
    organizations (Adyge-Khasa, the Circassian Congress, the International
    Circassian Association?) in the North Caucasus and worldwide. The
    radical wings of these groups ` in many cases based outside of Russia
    - promote a distorted historical vision and biased assessments of
    historical developments, and generally advocate an ideology of
    `restoring the historical justice' for the Adygs. From their
    perspective, the unification of Russian and foreign-based Adyg groups
    should pursue the following objectives:

    - Russia is to be forced to recognize `the genocide of the Circassian
    (Adyg) people' which allegedly took place during the XIX century
    Caucasian War;

    - Ethnic Adygs who are descendants of emigrants and reside abroad are
    to be granted Russian citizenship via a simplified procedure;

    - A new subject of the Russian Federation is to be established that
    would unite the territories historically inhabited by the Adygs
    (Adygea, Kabardino-Balkaria, and Karachay-Cherkessia). In the long run
    the new entirety is supposed to evolve into an independent country.

    Likewise projects are devised and implanted among the Adygs by Adyg
    nationalist groups. In April, 2009, the slogan of an independent Adyg
    country was endorsed by a conference which convened at the University
    of Columbia (US). A number of leaders of the Adyg emigre community
    suggest forming an Adyg government in exile that would delegate envoys
    to the EU headquarters, Turkey, and the US. US thinktanks such as Rand
    Corp. and the Jamestown Foundation are floating on the international
    level pseudo-academic studies supporting the genocide concept.
    `Academic' conferences attended by US, Turkish, and European scholars
    are organized in the countries where Adyg communities reside to demand
    that Russia recognize `the genocide' and restore `the historical
    justice' by returning territories to the Circassian people and by
    allowing an independent Circassian country. The Adyg nationalist
    ideology is disseminated among the population of the North Caucasus,
    particularly among the young people, via Adyg ethnic organizations
    (the Circassian Congress in Adygea and Karachay-Cherkessia; the
    Kabardin Congress, The Independent Public Research Center, and the
    Public Human Rights Center in Kabardino-Balkaria).

    Myths about the history of their peoples are floated by Karachay and
    Balkar activists, including those from the academic circles. The
    masses are being convinced that the Karachay and Balkar peoples who
    are actually of the Turkic origin are Alans and thus are somehow
    entitled to the territories formerly owned by the latter, including
    the Novo-Arkhyz preserve with its early-Christendom shrines. The
    activity strongly contributes to inter-ethnic tensions in
    Karachay-Cherkessia.

    The teaching of history in educational institutions deserves special
    attention in the context. Conditions for the spread of nationalism
    among the younger generation were artificially created in the early
    1990ies which saw the proliferation across the Caucasus of history
    textbooks presenting the past from narrow ethnic perspectives. The
    teaching of such `national histories' predictably bred staunch
    nationalism and hostilities between various ethnic groups.

    The abundance in mass media of materials espousing religious extremism
    and intolerance leads to similar results. Radical Muslim sites in the
    Caucasus are growing increasingly assertive, the odious site of the
    `united vilayat of Kabarda, Balkaria and Karachay' being a vivid
    example of the trend. They feature deliberately inaccurate
    interpretations of recent developments such as the trial of the
    terrorists who attacked the police and security stations in Nalchik in
    October, 2005.

    The flight of the Russian population from the republics of the North
    Caucasus is among the key reasons behind the surge of separatism in
    the regions. It should be realized that by now Chechnya and Ingushetia
    have grown practically mono-ethnic. The exodus of the Russian
    population is taking place in all of the regions of the North Caucasus
    which used to be homes to considerable Russian communities such as the
    Kizlyar and Tarum districts in Dagestan, the Mozdok district in North
    Ossetia, the Prokhldnensky and Maysky districts in Kabardino-Balkaria,
    the Giaga and Maykop districts in Adygea, and the Zelenchuk and Urup
    districts in Karachay-Cherkessia. Similar trends are witnessed in the
    Kursk, Neftekumsk, and Levokumsk districts of the Stavropol region.

    The truth is that several republics of the North Caucasus are already
    governed by ethnocratic regimes deliberately assisting the expulsion
    of the Russian population. Russians face discrimination in
    administrative bodies and when they seek executive positions, while a
    system of economic and legal privileges for the `title' nations is
    being openly maintained.

    On the whole, the threats to Russia's security in the sphere of
    inter-ethnic relations in the North Caucasus are:

    - The persistent inter-ethnic tensions in a number of regions coupled
    to widespread national and religious extremism;

    - The politization of the ethnicity theme by various international
    organizations and the channeling of subversive efforts via NGOs;

    - Clan social structures and corruption, which are the problems
    interwoven with local inter-ethnic conflicts and territorial disputes;

    - The opposition to the common Russian identity mounted by various
    ethnic and regional elites;

    - The continuing flight of the Russian population from the North Caucasus.

    A diverging ensemble of demographic processes is at full swing in
    South Russia. On the one hand, the de-Russification of the eastern
    part of the North Caucasus which began with the post-Soviet epoch is
    entering the terminal phase. On the other hand, the population on the
    planes of the Fore-Caucasus is growing ever more ethnically diverse as
    the Russian population is being replaced with that arriving from the
    mountainous areas of the Caucasus.

    Up to 70-90% of the budgets of the republics of the North Caucasus
    come from the federal budget. The corruption and the marked lack of
    professionalism among the ethnic clans ruling the republics keep the
    populations generally discontent with the functioning of state
    institutions, and the phenomenon in many cases acquires ethnic
    dimensions.

    ***
    The key permanent threat across the North Caucasus at the moment is
    posed by terrorism. The objective of the terrorist groups in the North
    Caucasus is to establish an Islamic state in the region.

    It is necessary to create in the framework of the North Caucasus
    federal district truly advanced systems of monitoring and suppression
    of terrorism, separatism, and xenophobia. The information fed to the
    system should not be limited to statistical data but should
    additionally integrate public opinion polls and expert estimates. At
    present the decision-making in the sphere of struggle against
    terrorism ` on both national and international levels - mainly relies
    on the analysis of particular facts, macroeconomic indicators, and
    criminal statistics. The circumstance typically ignored in the process
    is that terrorism, separatism, and xenophobia should be viewed not
    only from the legal but also from the social and psychological
    standpoints, and the corresponding phenomena have to be assessed on
    the basis of broader behavioral statistics. The monitoring of mass
    consciousness and the absorption of expert estimates must be part of
    the state's responsibility, and the results should factor into the
    political and legal decision-making aimed at combating terrorism,
    separatism, and xenophobia.

    It is among the Muslim populations that the activity of the
    ideologists of terrorism meets with the most favorable response. The
    ideologists cunningly exploit the complexities arising in the course
    of the revival of Islam in Russia and other post-Soviet countries and
    the shortcomings of the regulation of the activity of religious
    bodies. The factors making it easier for the ideologists of terrorism
    to attain their goals are:

    - The rapid growth of the Muslim populations and the intensification
    of migration from the predominantly Muslim post-Soviet republics;

    - The increasing popularity of fundamentalist ideas in the North
    Caucasus propped up by socioeconomic depression and political
    instabilities;

    - The deficiency of Russia's own system of training Muslim clergy and
    the lack of Muslim theologians prepared to address populations with
    the message of the moderate brands of Islam traditional for the
    regions the populations inhabit.

    It should also be taken into account that currently up to 95% of
    Russia's Muslim communities are receiving no aid from the centralized
    Muslim authorities or the country's secular institutions and thus have
    to seek out funding sources literally wherever they can. Under the
    circumstances, even minor infusions from indiscriminately chosen
    sponsors can seriously affect the state of people's minds.

    At present a typical priority of extremist religious groups is to
    maximize their access to media outlets and to the spheres of public
    education and charity. Interestingly, in public opinion polls some 60%
    of Orthodox Christian believers and Muslims and up to 30% of Roman
    Catholics and protestants expressed opposition to the idea of giving
    untraditional religious groups the freedom to preach.

    It would make sense to establish a specialized research institution in
    2010 and to charge it with the mission of conducting applied studies
    of the history and cultures of the peoples of the North Caucasus. The
    results of the research could serve the cause of systemic
    neutralization of the threats of nationalism, ethnic separatism, and
    religious extremism, especially among the younger generation.
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