Tweet
Today, Azerbaijan
Jan 6 2010
South Caucasus expert Amanda Paul: It's unlikely that Turkey will turn
its back on Azerbaijan
06 January 2010 [13:12] - Today.Az
Senior research fellow at the European Policy Center and an expert on
Southern Caucasus Amanda Paul commented on a number of issues, in
particular touched upon possible opening of Armenian-Turkish border
and the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.
`Opening of the border will only follow the ratification of the two
protocols in Turkey and Armenia. It is still very unclear when this
will happen (if it ever does) and from Ankara's perspective continues
to remain dependent on movement on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and
in particular withdrawal of Armenian forces from at least 5 of the
Azerbaijani territories that they continue to occupy. Armenia
continues to say this is not an option. Given all the promises that
have been made by Turkey's leaders to Azerbaijan's leadership it is
highly unlikely that Ankara could make a u-turn at this point unless
of course Azerbaijan itself could be convinced to think differently on
the issue which is also highly unlikely, indeed, probably impossible,"
said Paul.
Paul also pointed out that closer to the 24th of April, the date which
Armenians mark as the date of `genocide', situation in the region
could be changing faster.
`Opening the border without such a development on Karabakh would make
Baku ` to say the least ` extremely unhappy and very unpredictable.
24th of April is a very significant date for all concerned, and of
course for the US, where President Obama will come under increased
pressure by the armenian lobby both in and outside of Congress. The
big players ` US and Russia ` can continue to push and cajole all
three countries but so far ` since the signing of the protocols on 10
October ` a stalemate has set in and in the case of Russia, at least,
their approach is always open to change depending on other
developments in the world. If there were positive developments by
April it would be extremely good news for the whole South Caucasus
region but at this point in time the outlook does not look
particularly rosy," she said.
T. Teymur
URL: http://www.today.az/news/politics/58973.html
Jan 6 2010
South Caucasus expert Amanda Paul: It's unlikely that Turkey will turn
its back on Azerbaijan
06 January 2010 [13:12] - Today.Az
Senior research fellow at the European Policy Center and an expert on
Southern Caucasus Amanda Paul commented on a number of issues, in
particular touched upon possible opening of Armenian-Turkish border
and the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.
`Opening of the border will only follow the ratification of the two
protocols in Turkey and Armenia. It is still very unclear when this
will happen (if it ever does) and from Ankara's perspective continues
to remain dependent on movement on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and
in particular withdrawal of Armenian forces from at least 5 of the
Azerbaijani territories that they continue to occupy. Armenia
continues to say this is not an option. Given all the promises that
have been made by Turkey's leaders to Azerbaijan's leadership it is
highly unlikely that Ankara could make a u-turn at this point unless
of course Azerbaijan itself could be convinced to think differently on
the issue which is also highly unlikely, indeed, probably impossible,"
said Paul.
Paul also pointed out that closer to the 24th of April, the date which
Armenians mark as the date of `genocide', situation in the region
could be changing faster.
`Opening the border without such a development on Karabakh would make
Baku ` to say the least ` extremely unhappy and very unpredictable.
24th of April is a very significant date for all concerned, and of
course for the US, where President Obama will come under increased
pressure by the armenian lobby both in and outside of Congress. The
big players ` US and Russia ` can continue to push and cajole all
three countries but so far ` since the signing of the protocols on 10
October ` a stalemate has set in and in the case of Russia, at least,
their approach is always open to change depending on other
developments in the world. If there were positive developments by
April it would be extremely good news for the whole South Caucasus
region but at this point in time the outlook does not look
particularly rosy," she said.
T. Teymur
URL: http://www.today.az/news/politics/58973.html