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  • Turkey-Armenia Pact Hits Snags

    TURKEY-ARMENIA PACT HITS SNAGS

    Lragir.am
    28/01/10

    Marc Champion, Marcus Walker and Stephen Fidler

    A deal between Turkey and Armenia to open their border and establish
    diplomatic relations after generations of dispute over genocide
    allegations and territory is under growing threat of collapse.

    Armenia is pushing for rapid ratification of the deal, signed
    in October, while Turkey has a longer time frame. On Wednesday,
    Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev added to concerns for the deal when
    he said he was confident Turkey wouldn't ratify the agreement until
    Armenia has returned Azeri territory that it occupies, including the
    mainly ethnic Armenian region of Nagorno Karabakh.

    'There is a common understanding in the region that there should
    be a first step by Armenia to start the liberation of the occupied
    territories,' Mr. Aliyev said in an interview with The Wall Street
    Journal in the margins of the World Economic Forum in Davos,
    Switzerland. He said he was 'fully satisfied' with Turkey's
    understanding of the issue, despite harshly criticizing Turkey's
    handling of it in the past.

    A History of Dangerous Relations

    'If the two issues are disconnected, then probably Armenia will freeze
    negotiations with Azerbaijan (over Nagorno Karabakh),' said Mr.

    Aliyev, adding that he believed economic pressure was one of the main
    incentives for Armenia to come to the table. Mr. Aliyev has warned
    previously that such an outcome could lead to renewed war.

    Turkey's leaders, including Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
    have said repeatedly that the border opening and settlement of the
    Nagorno Karabakh conflict are linked.

    There is no sign of progress in the 15-year-old peace talks. But some
    ambiguity remains in Turkey's position. The territorial dispute isn't
    mentioned in October's protocols.

    'Now we are approaching the moment when things get more and more
    difficult,' said Vigen Sargsyan, deputy chief of staff to the Armenian
    president. Pressure on the Armenian president to abandon the effort
    is building strongly as the next annual April 24 U.S. presidential
    commemoration of the 1915 genocide approaches, creating a tight
    Armenian schedule to see the protocols ratified.

    Turkish officials, by contrast, talk about an open-ended process that
    could last a year or more if necessary. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet
    Davutoglu also recently expressed anger at a decision by Armenia's
    constitutional court that he said in effect puts conditions on the
    deal-a claim Mr. Sargsyan dismissed.

    Mr. Sargsyan said that while Armenia's government is sending
    ratification papers for the deal to parliament, it is also preparing
    legislation to enable the president to withdraw his signature from
    treaties. 'If this opportunity is lost it will push the whole region
    back, not to where we started when talks began but beyond that,' said
    Mr. Sargsyan. He said trust between the two sides would be destroyed.

    Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in protest at the
    occupation by Armenia-backed forces of Nagorno Karabakh and seven
    districts around it that were seized as buffer zones. But in the
    wake of the war between Georgia and Russia in August 2008, Turkey's
    government said it was ready to negotiate an end to Armenia's
    isolation, as Ankara sought a bigger role in the Caucasus region.

    By last Spring, the two sides had drafted protocols outlining a deal
    that would open the borders, establish diplomatic and trade relations
    and set up a joint commission to examine historical issues, including
    the 1915 Ottoman massacre of up to 1.5 million ethnic Armenians,
    in what is now Eastern Turkey, which Armenia and many historians
    consider genocide. But Turkey's leaders refused at the last minute to
    sign, in the face of fierce opposition from Mr. Aliyev and opponents
    within Turkey.

    The U.S., Russia and the European Union have strongly backed the
    Turkish-Armenian initiative, saying it could help to stabilize a
    region that is strategically important for energy supplies.

    Mr. Aliyev has expressed his anger over the Turkey-Armenia talks
    by threatening to reroute Azeri natural gas and oil exports away
    from Turkey. 'Azerbaijan can export gas in four directions: Turkey,
    Georgia, Iran and Russia,' Mr. Aliyev said Wednesday. 'We can expand
    volumes of gas in each of these directions.'

    The Azeri president also expressed frustration over the delays in
    construction of the EU's planned Nabucco pipeline, which would carry
    natural gas from the Caspian Sea to EU markets via Turkey. 'Gazprom
    has said it will buy whatever we supply. If Nabucco is delayed, we
    will sell more to Gazprom, it is clear,' said Mr. Aliyev, referring
    to the Russian state gas giant OAO Gazprom.
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