Tweet
"WE MUST FIND ALTERNATIVE FUEL"
Alexander Gushchin
RIA Novosti
07/07/2010
Ismail Agakishiev, PhD in History, Associate Professor at the History
Department of Moscow State University and the Russian State University
for the Humanities.
Hello, Mr. Agakishiev.
Hello.
The recent gas conflict with Belarus - and please correct me if I'm
wrong - was quite mild. We have become accustomed to more dramatic
developments - to protracted gas wars with malicious countries that
refuse to pay. Does this mean that the era of dramatic gas conflicts
is now a thing of the past?
You know, I think there is too much unnecessary political speculation
about these economic contracts, which clearly spell out the rights and
obligations of the parties. This is due primarily to the fact that
energy is the foundation for economic development. Energy shortages
are felt by every family, every apartment, and every home.
Another problem is that the media, for some reason, do not always
properly explain problems related to energy supplies. In reality,
energy supplies are a matter of contractual obligation, first
and foremost, which the parties must fulfill. Otherwise it would
be impossible to ensure the implementation of programs that are
stipulated in international contracts and are binding both for the
suppliers and buyers.
You are an expert in the field of energy, and one of your recent works
deals with precisely this subject. In your opinion, what presents
the greatest danger for energy supplies?
You know, there is always an element of danger, and not just when it
comes to energy supplies. We face danger everywhere. Even when we get
up in the morning, we don't know if we are going to live through the
day. Anything can happen in the course of a day. Clearly, there are
always dangers when it comes to energy.
The delivery of gas or oil through a pipeline is inherently complex,
and it comes with a certain degree of risk. For example, there is the
landscape of the territory through which the pipelines are laid. This
must also be taken into account. But to be clear, for the most part
these risks are exaggerated by journalists and politicians.
The reality is that the main danger lies in the fact that the world is
extremely dependent on traditional sources of energy. They have become
the foundation of the modern economy. But these resources are limited,
especially oil. Therefore, we must find alternative sources of energy.
Getting back to the issue of pipeline routes: whether we're talking
about the Baku-Novorossiysk route, Baku-Supsa, Baku-Ceyhan, or gas
supplies from Central Asia and Kazakhstan - all of these pipelines run
through regions where there is political instability or even armed
conflicts. In Russia, there was a conflict in Chechnya in the early
1990s. Disagreements have recently resurfaced between the Turks and
Kurds, there is instability in Georgia...
And in Karabakh.
Yes. At one point the possibility of creating a pipeline through
Karabakh was discussed with the former president of Armenia, Levon
Ter-Petrosyan. Had they managed to reach an agreement on this issue,
it would have provided an excellent opportunity to settle the Karabakh
conflict once and for all. A pipeline through Armenia would have been
one of the most effective and least costly routes.
The presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Heydar Aliev and Levon
Ter-Petrosyan, had an excellent opportunity to solve two regional
problems at once: the protracted Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the
economic problems of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the region as a whole.
However, the opposition in Armenia, the so-called party of war, which
was actively seeking power at the time, was not interested in a deal.
The assassination of Karen Demirchyan, patriarch of Armenian politics,
forced President Ter-Petrosyan to resign, clearing the way for the
party of war to take power and nip the plans for a pipeline in the
bud. Armenia had a real opportunity to become a major oil and gas
transit country for Europe and to play an active role in this field.
This is a case where politics got in the way of economic development.
Yes, absolutely right. The same goes for the construction of a less
expensive pipeline through Iran, where strong U.S. opposition killed
the project. Washington blocked it.
You mentioned the need to find alternative sources of energy. How
soon should we start worrying about this? When will the oil and gas
run out? I've heard that there is enough for about another 100 years.
Well, some experts are optimistic and say that the current reserves
will last for many years to come, and if necessary even more reserves
can be found. But there is another view, which I wouldn't call
pessimistic so much as realistic. Everything has its limit and sooner
or later everything comes to an end, including oil and gas. And we
need to be prepared for this. In my opinion, we should have started
looking for alternative sources of energy yesterday. We are very far
behind from where we need to be.
Is Russia falling behind or the world as a whole?
No, human civilization. After all, the energy resources that are the
foundation of today's economy also played a huge role in the formation
of our civilization. We should acknowledge - while at the same time
not exaggerate - the fact that Europe's prosperity is underwritten in
part by gas from Algeria, Norway and, of course, Russia. It would be
no exaggeration to say that without this gas, Europe's economy would
not have reached its current level of development.
Mr. Agakishiev, thank you for sharing your time and your thoughts.
Thank you.
From: A. Papazian
Alexander Gushchin
RIA Novosti
07/07/2010
Ismail Agakishiev, PhD in History, Associate Professor at the History
Department of Moscow State University and the Russian State University
for the Humanities.
Hello, Mr. Agakishiev.
Hello.
The recent gas conflict with Belarus - and please correct me if I'm
wrong - was quite mild. We have become accustomed to more dramatic
developments - to protracted gas wars with malicious countries that
refuse to pay. Does this mean that the era of dramatic gas conflicts
is now a thing of the past?
You know, I think there is too much unnecessary political speculation
about these economic contracts, which clearly spell out the rights and
obligations of the parties. This is due primarily to the fact that
energy is the foundation for economic development. Energy shortages
are felt by every family, every apartment, and every home.
Another problem is that the media, for some reason, do not always
properly explain problems related to energy supplies. In reality,
energy supplies are a matter of contractual obligation, first
and foremost, which the parties must fulfill. Otherwise it would
be impossible to ensure the implementation of programs that are
stipulated in international contracts and are binding both for the
suppliers and buyers.
You are an expert in the field of energy, and one of your recent works
deals with precisely this subject. In your opinion, what presents
the greatest danger for energy supplies?
You know, there is always an element of danger, and not just when it
comes to energy supplies. We face danger everywhere. Even when we get
up in the morning, we don't know if we are going to live through the
day. Anything can happen in the course of a day. Clearly, there are
always dangers when it comes to energy.
The delivery of gas or oil through a pipeline is inherently complex,
and it comes with a certain degree of risk. For example, there is the
landscape of the territory through which the pipelines are laid. This
must also be taken into account. But to be clear, for the most part
these risks are exaggerated by journalists and politicians.
The reality is that the main danger lies in the fact that the world is
extremely dependent on traditional sources of energy. They have become
the foundation of the modern economy. But these resources are limited,
especially oil. Therefore, we must find alternative sources of energy.
Getting back to the issue of pipeline routes: whether we're talking
about the Baku-Novorossiysk route, Baku-Supsa, Baku-Ceyhan, or gas
supplies from Central Asia and Kazakhstan - all of these pipelines run
through regions where there is political instability or even armed
conflicts. In Russia, there was a conflict in Chechnya in the early
1990s. Disagreements have recently resurfaced between the Turks and
Kurds, there is instability in Georgia...
And in Karabakh.
Yes. At one point the possibility of creating a pipeline through
Karabakh was discussed with the former president of Armenia, Levon
Ter-Petrosyan. Had they managed to reach an agreement on this issue,
it would have provided an excellent opportunity to settle the Karabakh
conflict once and for all. A pipeline through Armenia would have been
one of the most effective and least costly routes.
The presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Heydar Aliev and Levon
Ter-Petrosyan, had an excellent opportunity to solve two regional
problems at once: the protracted Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the
economic problems of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the region as a whole.
However, the opposition in Armenia, the so-called party of war, which
was actively seeking power at the time, was not interested in a deal.
The assassination of Karen Demirchyan, patriarch of Armenian politics,
forced President Ter-Petrosyan to resign, clearing the way for the
party of war to take power and nip the plans for a pipeline in the
bud. Armenia had a real opportunity to become a major oil and gas
transit country for Europe and to play an active role in this field.
This is a case where politics got in the way of economic development.
Yes, absolutely right. The same goes for the construction of a less
expensive pipeline through Iran, where strong U.S. opposition killed
the project. Washington blocked it.
You mentioned the need to find alternative sources of energy. How
soon should we start worrying about this? When will the oil and gas
run out? I've heard that there is enough for about another 100 years.
Well, some experts are optimistic and say that the current reserves
will last for many years to come, and if necessary even more reserves
can be found. But there is another view, which I wouldn't call
pessimistic so much as realistic. Everything has its limit and sooner
or later everything comes to an end, including oil and gas. And we
need to be prepared for this. In my opinion, we should have started
looking for alternative sources of energy yesterday. We are very far
behind from where we need to be.
Is Russia falling behind or the world as a whole?
No, human civilization. After all, the energy resources that are the
foundation of today's economy also played a huge role in the formation
of our civilization. We should acknowledge - while at the same time
not exaggerate - the fact that Europe's prosperity is underwritten in
part by gas from Algeria, Norway and, of course, Russia. It would be
no exaggeration to say that without this gas, Europe's economy would
not have reached its current level of development.
Mr. Agakishiev, thank you for sharing your time and your thoughts.
Thank you.
From: A. Papazian