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ARMENIA 'MAY AGREE TO SOME KIND OF PEACE' IN 2011
Leyla Tagiyeva News.Az
news.az
July 20 2010
Azerbaijan
Sinan Ogan News.Az interviews Sinan Ogan, president of the Turkish
Centre for International Relations and Strategic Analysis.
Turkey's peacekeeping efforts on the Middle East and South Caucasus
have not yet been effective. Do you think that these Turkish diplomatic
efforts will be fruitful?
I would like to think so, but it is not too easy. Israel in the Middle
East and Armenia in the South Caucasus are far from peace. Both regions
have serious problems in this respect. The settlement of these problems
anytime soon is considered impossible. However, it is easier to settle
problems in the Caucasus than in the Middle East. Peace in the Caucasus
can be achieved if both parties want it. Turkey's unilateral efforts
are insufficient. It requires Israel in the Middle East and Armenia
in the Caucasus to take steps to achieve peace.
The US leadership says that Turkey as a strategic partner of the
United States could become a leader of the Islamic world and at the
same time puts pressure on Ankara over Armenia and Israel. What can
you say about it?
This is an example of the policy of double standards of the US and
West overall. Turkey has to pay for what is demanded by the United
States. However, despite four resolutions of the UN Security Council,
which clearly specify that Armenia is an occupying country, no-one
headed by Obama says: "Armenia, you are an occupier, get out of the
occupied lands." Everyone asks Turkey: "Why don't you open borders
with Armenia?" Now the United States does not see the land occupied
by Armenia, they do not see the murder of nine Turks aboard a Turkish
ship in international waters. At a time when the United States is an
occupier in Iraq, they do not notice the terrorist PKK which commits
terror acts against Turkey from Iraq. The United States is concerned
only that Turkey meets all their demands.
Do you think there will be progress soon on a Karabakh conflict
settlement?
If Armenia is empowered to settle this issue, it is obvious that
the Karabakh conflict will not be settled by 2015. Turkey will be
waiting until 2015 when Armenia marks the 100th anniversary of the
events of 1915, when the Armenian population residing in areas of
hostilities was settled in safe areas. Armenia views these events as
genocide, and is trying to gain compensation from Turkey by 2015. If
the Karabakh conflict is settled, the Turkish-Armenian border will
open and relations with Armenia will normalize. In this situation it
will not be too easy to attain the resolutions of western parliaments
against Turkey. Therefore, Armenia will try to prevent and protract the
solution to the Karabakh conflict. But Armenia itself has a serious
problem. Time is working for Azerbaijan and against Armenia since
Azerbaijan is growing stronger while Armenia is growing weaker. On
the other hand, Azerbaijan may start war. For this reason, Armenia
may agree to some kind of peace in 2011.
Turkey has been playing quite an active role in the South Caucasus
in the past two years. May this activeness prompt concern among the
other major players in the region - Russia and the United States?
I do not agree that Turkey has been holding an active policy in the
South Caucasus over these two years. I would like it to have done so.
Turkey was neutral on the Georgian war, preserving good relations
with both the United States and Russia. Turkey has not yet made an
initiative on Karabakh. Relations with Armenia have reached deadlock.
Relations with Azerbaijan were also on the verge of collapse but have
recently started to pick up. A country with an active foreign policy
should not have all the problems I mentioned. Turkey, which is not
active, does not pose a threat to either Russia or the United States.
May the intensification of Russian-Turkish cooperation, especially
in the economic sphere, help to strengthen stability in our region?
It is possible to say that relations between Turkey and Russia are
expanding which will, certainly, have a positive impact on the region.
This will also have a positive impact on the settlement of problems
over Nagorno-Karabakh. During Bush's presidency, the United States was
jealous about Turkey's rapprochement with Russia. However, nothing of
the kind can be seen during the Obama period. US-Russian relations are
also expanding. Medvedev's and Putin's policies in this regard differ
Relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan were a little overshadowed by
the signing of the protocols on Armenian-Turkish reconciliation. Is it
possible to say that today all these differences between our countries
have been left behind?
Relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan are unlike relations between
other countries. Our relations are developing according to the
principle "One nation - two states". We may have problems but they
will never cause major differences. Currently, improvements can be
seen in relations between Ankara and Baku, but we cannot say that
all the problems are behind us. While the Karabakh conflict remains
unresolved, the opening of borders between Turkey and Armenia remains
possible. The borders may open for several days for people to come
from Armenia to attend a ceremony in the Armenian church in Van in
Turkey on 19 September.
From: A. Papazian
Leyla Tagiyeva News.Az
news.az
July 20 2010
Azerbaijan
Sinan Ogan News.Az interviews Sinan Ogan, president of the Turkish
Centre for International Relations and Strategic Analysis.
Turkey's peacekeeping efforts on the Middle East and South Caucasus
have not yet been effective. Do you think that these Turkish diplomatic
efforts will be fruitful?
I would like to think so, but it is not too easy. Israel in the Middle
East and Armenia in the South Caucasus are far from peace. Both regions
have serious problems in this respect. The settlement of these problems
anytime soon is considered impossible. However, it is easier to settle
problems in the Caucasus than in the Middle East. Peace in the Caucasus
can be achieved if both parties want it. Turkey's unilateral efforts
are insufficient. It requires Israel in the Middle East and Armenia
in the Caucasus to take steps to achieve peace.
The US leadership says that Turkey as a strategic partner of the
United States could become a leader of the Islamic world and at the
same time puts pressure on Ankara over Armenia and Israel. What can
you say about it?
This is an example of the policy of double standards of the US and
West overall. Turkey has to pay for what is demanded by the United
States. However, despite four resolutions of the UN Security Council,
which clearly specify that Armenia is an occupying country, no-one
headed by Obama says: "Armenia, you are an occupier, get out of the
occupied lands." Everyone asks Turkey: "Why don't you open borders
with Armenia?" Now the United States does not see the land occupied
by Armenia, they do not see the murder of nine Turks aboard a Turkish
ship in international waters. At a time when the United States is an
occupier in Iraq, they do not notice the terrorist PKK which commits
terror acts against Turkey from Iraq. The United States is concerned
only that Turkey meets all their demands.
Do you think there will be progress soon on a Karabakh conflict
settlement?
If Armenia is empowered to settle this issue, it is obvious that
the Karabakh conflict will not be settled by 2015. Turkey will be
waiting until 2015 when Armenia marks the 100th anniversary of the
events of 1915, when the Armenian population residing in areas of
hostilities was settled in safe areas. Armenia views these events as
genocide, and is trying to gain compensation from Turkey by 2015. If
the Karabakh conflict is settled, the Turkish-Armenian border will
open and relations with Armenia will normalize. In this situation it
will not be too easy to attain the resolutions of western parliaments
against Turkey. Therefore, Armenia will try to prevent and protract the
solution to the Karabakh conflict. But Armenia itself has a serious
problem. Time is working for Azerbaijan and against Armenia since
Azerbaijan is growing stronger while Armenia is growing weaker. On
the other hand, Azerbaijan may start war. For this reason, Armenia
may agree to some kind of peace in 2011.
Turkey has been playing quite an active role in the South Caucasus
in the past two years. May this activeness prompt concern among the
other major players in the region - Russia and the United States?
I do not agree that Turkey has been holding an active policy in the
South Caucasus over these two years. I would like it to have done so.
Turkey was neutral on the Georgian war, preserving good relations
with both the United States and Russia. Turkey has not yet made an
initiative on Karabakh. Relations with Armenia have reached deadlock.
Relations with Azerbaijan were also on the verge of collapse but have
recently started to pick up. A country with an active foreign policy
should not have all the problems I mentioned. Turkey, which is not
active, does not pose a threat to either Russia or the United States.
May the intensification of Russian-Turkish cooperation, especially
in the economic sphere, help to strengthen stability in our region?
It is possible to say that relations between Turkey and Russia are
expanding which will, certainly, have a positive impact on the region.
This will also have a positive impact on the settlement of problems
over Nagorno-Karabakh. During Bush's presidency, the United States was
jealous about Turkey's rapprochement with Russia. However, nothing of
the kind can be seen during the Obama period. US-Russian relations are
also expanding. Medvedev's and Putin's policies in this regard differ
Relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan were a little overshadowed by
the signing of the protocols on Armenian-Turkish reconciliation. Is it
possible to say that today all these differences between our countries
have been left behind?
Relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan are unlike relations between
other countries. Our relations are developing according to the
principle "One nation - two states". We may have problems but they
will never cause major differences. Currently, improvements can be
seen in relations between Ankara and Baku, but we cannot say that
all the problems are behind us. While the Karabakh conflict remains
unresolved, the opening of borders between Turkey and Armenia remains
possible. The borders may open for several days for people to come
from Armenia to attend a ceremony in the Armenian church in Van in
Turkey on 19 September.
From: A. Papazian