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WHY ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN DON'T MAKE CONCESSIONS
by Armen Hareyan
HULIQ.com
July 21 2010
SC
Mutual concessions are necessary to resolve any conflict in a way to
achieve lasting peace, but for Armenia and Azerbaijan it has not been
possible to achieve for nearly 20 years. However, if it was easy,
Israel and Palestine would have reached peace 40 years ago. How can
Armenia and Azerbaijan achieve peace.
In a very revealing story one political scientist from Azerbaijan tells
Azernews that neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan want to reach peace and
explains why. Arastun Orujlu, the head of East-West research center,
commenting on the recent meeting of the OSCE foreign ministers in
Almaty, says both parties are reluctant to make mutual concessions
because those concessions will have dire political consequences in
both countries.
Orujlu says the Nagorno Karabakh conflict is at national level in both
countries. Because it is at nationwide level, the conflict is also
"a subject of political rivalry in some sense," he continues and
concludes that making concessions can in reality trigger upheavals
and dire political crisis in both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
"Therefore, the sides are refraining from reaching a stage of signing
a peace accord by various means," Orujlu says predicting that in
the foreseeable future he does not see the resolution of the Nagorno
Karabakh conflict. Yet, the resolution is needed and above everything
the region needs peace and the Madrid principles provide a good and
fair opportunity to resolve the conflict and reach a peace accord
between the two neighboring countries, which have almost everything
in common, except religion.
If we put these Madrid Principles in a short sentence we will have
the following. Nagorno Karabakh withdraws its troops and Azerbaijan
recognizes its right of self-determination and the consequence of
the referendum. While Armenia has stressed that it accepts these
principles as a base for continuing the negotiations, Azerbaijan has
repeatedly said on various levels of leadership that it does not see
the independence of the Nagorno Karabakh as a possible outcome of
the conflict resolution.
Armenia will not make the concessions and withdraw unless the future
status of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic is agreed. Azerbaijan does
not want to discuss this issue because it thinks the independence of
Nagorno Karabakh will mean its defeat in this conflict. In reality
it is not.
In reality both Armenia and Azerbaijan are defeated by the conflict
itself when there is no peace. There is no full realization of people's
potential if there is no peace. If Azerbaijan cannot sell the Madrid
Principles to its people, it needs to prepare its society about the
future peace with a neighbor.
Leave everything and restore trust
It is much harder and nearly impossible to make concessions to "the
other side" if there is no trust. Since the Minsk Group in its last
statement in Almaty says the final decision rests with the Azerbaijani
and Armenian leaders then here is what the leaders can do.
If the society in Azerbaijan is not ready to see the independence
of Nagorno Karabakh may be it is better to leave the negotiations
aside and instead negotiate about restoring the trust between the two
people. According to this scenario for about 5 years Azerbaijan can
back down from its request of returning the 7 regions adjustment to
Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia for the time being can back down from
negotiating the status of Nagorno Karabakh. Simply put, just leave
everything as they are now and deal with your own societies to restore
trust in the next 5 years.
The image of enemy should be routed out. Bad things happens. People in
Armenia and Azerbaijan are angry. Yet, let's look to the future. Do
we want to stay in this anger or look beyond the this image of enemy
and try to see what other future we can build together so neither
Armenian nor the Azeri mothers are afraid that their children can
one day die if another war breaks out.
Azerbaijan can open the means of communications. As a positive sign
Turkey can do the same. People will slowly start trading and restoring
trust. This may take years. Azerbaijan should not be afraid of opening
the communications with Armenia. In case this scenario does not work,
it can always close it and come back to the starting point. However,
the hope is that after 5 years of trading and coming closer, people
both in Armenia and Azerbaijan will care less about the future status
of Nagorno Karabakh and instead focus on their future together. Let
the people, who live in Nagorno Karabakh, decide what future they
want to have and let the societies in Azerbaijan and Armenia applaud
that decision.
From: A. Papazian
by Armen Hareyan
HULIQ.com
July 21 2010
SC
Mutual concessions are necessary to resolve any conflict in a way to
achieve lasting peace, but for Armenia and Azerbaijan it has not been
possible to achieve for nearly 20 years. However, if it was easy,
Israel and Palestine would have reached peace 40 years ago. How can
Armenia and Azerbaijan achieve peace.
In a very revealing story one political scientist from Azerbaijan tells
Azernews that neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan want to reach peace and
explains why. Arastun Orujlu, the head of East-West research center,
commenting on the recent meeting of the OSCE foreign ministers in
Almaty, says both parties are reluctant to make mutual concessions
because those concessions will have dire political consequences in
both countries.
Orujlu says the Nagorno Karabakh conflict is at national level in both
countries. Because it is at nationwide level, the conflict is also
"a subject of political rivalry in some sense," he continues and
concludes that making concessions can in reality trigger upheavals
and dire political crisis in both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
"Therefore, the sides are refraining from reaching a stage of signing
a peace accord by various means," Orujlu says predicting that in
the foreseeable future he does not see the resolution of the Nagorno
Karabakh conflict. Yet, the resolution is needed and above everything
the region needs peace and the Madrid principles provide a good and
fair opportunity to resolve the conflict and reach a peace accord
between the two neighboring countries, which have almost everything
in common, except religion.
If we put these Madrid Principles in a short sentence we will have
the following. Nagorno Karabakh withdraws its troops and Azerbaijan
recognizes its right of self-determination and the consequence of
the referendum. While Armenia has stressed that it accepts these
principles as a base for continuing the negotiations, Azerbaijan has
repeatedly said on various levels of leadership that it does not see
the independence of the Nagorno Karabakh as a possible outcome of
the conflict resolution.
Armenia will not make the concessions and withdraw unless the future
status of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic is agreed. Azerbaijan does
not want to discuss this issue because it thinks the independence of
Nagorno Karabakh will mean its defeat in this conflict. In reality
it is not.
In reality both Armenia and Azerbaijan are defeated by the conflict
itself when there is no peace. There is no full realization of people's
potential if there is no peace. If Azerbaijan cannot sell the Madrid
Principles to its people, it needs to prepare its society about the
future peace with a neighbor.
Leave everything and restore trust
It is much harder and nearly impossible to make concessions to "the
other side" if there is no trust. Since the Minsk Group in its last
statement in Almaty says the final decision rests with the Azerbaijani
and Armenian leaders then here is what the leaders can do.
If the society in Azerbaijan is not ready to see the independence
of Nagorno Karabakh may be it is better to leave the negotiations
aside and instead negotiate about restoring the trust between the two
people. According to this scenario for about 5 years Azerbaijan can
back down from its request of returning the 7 regions adjustment to
Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia for the time being can back down from
negotiating the status of Nagorno Karabakh. Simply put, just leave
everything as they are now and deal with your own societies to restore
trust in the next 5 years.
The image of enemy should be routed out. Bad things happens. People in
Armenia and Azerbaijan are angry. Yet, let's look to the future. Do
we want to stay in this anger or look beyond the this image of enemy
and try to see what other future we can build together so neither
Armenian nor the Azeri mothers are afraid that their children can
one day die if another war breaks out.
Azerbaijan can open the means of communications. As a positive sign
Turkey can do the same. People will slowly start trading and restoring
trust. This may take years. Azerbaijan should not be afraid of opening
the communications with Armenia. In case this scenario does not work,
it can always close it and come back to the starting point. However,
the hope is that after 5 years of trading and coming closer, people
both in Armenia and Azerbaijan will care less about the future status
of Nagorno Karabakh and instead focus on their future together. Let
the people, who live in Nagorno Karabakh, decide what future they
want to have and let the societies in Azerbaijan and Armenia applaud
that decision.
From: A. Papazian