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The Messenger, Georgia
July 23 2010
Confederation: dream or reality?
By Messenger Staff Friday, July 23
On July 18 Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan, visited Georgia and
was hosted by his counterpart in Batumi. Plans for further bilateral
relations were discussed in an ordinary way but the elephant in the
room was President Saakashvili's statement about forming a possible
confederation with Azerbaijan. Ilham Aliyev reacted very moderately to
this suggestion. Georgian analysts were very negative about it but
Azerbaijanis positively welcomed it.
President Saakashvili kept repeating that Azerbaijan has a friendly
and good neighbourly attitude towards Georgia, in particular on issues
crucial for Tbilisi. He recalled the instances when gas and
electricity supplies were cut in the middle of winter and Azerbaijan
shared its portion of gas and electricity with the Georgian
population. He said, with emotion in his voice, that this gesture in
January 2005 would not be forgotten by the Georgian people. The
Azerbaijani President was emotional though rather more reserved. `Your
success is our success. Georgia is an attractive country for investors
and I am happy that Azerbaijani investors are among them," he stated.
Saakashvili had talked already about forming some sort of
confederation between the two countries as they are parts of one body.
In Georgia the concept of a confederation traditionally has negative
connotations. It reminds Georgians of what happened in the spring of
1918, when the three South Caucasus countries, Georgia, Armenia and
Azerbaijan, unsuccessfully created such a confederation. The Bolshevik
Soviet Union soon brought all three under its control.
Western analysts have also suggested a confederation before, claiming
that if the region's states unite in a confederation there would be no
disputes about their borders and no more conflict regions, as the
territorial integrity of each separate country would no longer be an
issue. Saakashvili's idea was mockingly greeted by one Georgian
newspaper with the headline: We were Moving Towards Europe and
appeared in Azerbaijan. Among the arguments against this proposal is
that the Azeri population exceeds the Georgian population by three
quarters and Azeri businesses are very active in Georgia, particularly
in the energy sector, whereas Georgian products face problems entering
the Azeri market. However the fact that the idea has been broached by
the President of Georgia will mean it remains on the table for a while
to come.
Most analysts think that any kind of confederation, with the EU or
Azerbaijan or anybody else, will involve restoring the territorial
integrity of the country, either as a precondition or an outcome.
Maybe it would be better to form such a confederation with Russia, or
Russia and Azerbaijan together, because Russia is occupying Georgian
territory. As the Beatles said: Back to the USSR. But such things
should not happen on the spur of the moment but rather through a
democratic process of referendum following considered expert analysis.
There is not likely to be any serious development of this proposal for
the time being, but a number of measures, such as possibly selling the
main gas pipeline to SOCAR, could be justified by stating that they
are part of this possible long term policy goal.
From: A. Papazian
July 23 2010
Confederation: dream or reality?
By Messenger Staff Friday, July 23
On July 18 Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan, visited Georgia and
was hosted by his counterpart in Batumi. Plans for further bilateral
relations were discussed in an ordinary way but the elephant in the
room was President Saakashvili's statement about forming a possible
confederation with Azerbaijan. Ilham Aliyev reacted very moderately to
this suggestion. Georgian analysts were very negative about it but
Azerbaijanis positively welcomed it.
President Saakashvili kept repeating that Azerbaijan has a friendly
and good neighbourly attitude towards Georgia, in particular on issues
crucial for Tbilisi. He recalled the instances when gas and
electricity supplies were cut in the middle of winter and Azerbaijan
shared its portion of gas and electricity with the Georgian
population. He said, with emotion in his voice, that this gesture in
January 2005 would not be forgotten by the Georgian people. The
Azerbaijani President was emotional though rather more reserved. `Your
success is our success. Georgia is an attractive country for investors
and I am happy that Azerbaijani investors are among them," he stated.
Saakashvili had talked already about forming some sort of
confederation between the two countries as they are parts of one body.
In Georgia the concept of a confederation traditionally has negative
connotations. It reminds Georgians of what happened in the spring of
1918, when the three South Caucasus countries, Georgia, Armenia and
Azerbaijan, unsuccessfully created such a confederation. The Bolshevik
Soviet Union soon brought all three under its control.
Western analysts have also suggested a confederation before, claiming
that if the region's states unite in a confederation there would be no
disputes about their borders and no more conflict regions, as the
territorial integrity of each separate country would no longer be an
issue. Saakashvili's idea was mockingly greeted by one Georgian
newspaper with the headline: We were Moving Towards Europe and
appeared in Azerbaijan. Among the arguments against this proposal is
that the Azeri population exceeds the Georgian population by three
quarters and Azeri businesses are very active in Georgia, particularly
in the energy sector, whereas Georgian products face problems entering
the Azeri market. However the fact that the idea has been broached by
the President of Georgia will mean it remains on the table for a while
to come.
Most analysts think that any kind of confederation, with the EU or
Azerbaijan or anybody else, will involve restoring the territorial
integrity of the country, either as a precondition or an outcome.
Maybe it would be better to form such a confederation with Russia, or
Russia and Azerbaijan together, because Russia is occupying Georgian
territory. As the Beatles said: Back to the USSR. But such things
should not happen on the spur of the moment but rather through a
democratic process of referendum following considered expert analysis.
There is not likely to be any serious development of this proposal for
the time being, but a number of measures, such as possibly selling the
main gas pipeline to SOCAR, could be justified by stating that they
are part of this possible long term policy goal.
From: A. Papazian