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FORMER CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR PREDICTS FURTHER DRAM APPRECIATION, SAYS CURRENT GROWTH 'UNRELIABLE'
NAZIK ARMENAKYAN
ArmeniaNow
By Gayane Abrahamyan
ArmeniaNow reporter
04.06.10
The appreciation of Armenia's national currency, the dram, observed
in the past two weeks (seeing the dollar exchange rate dropping from
400 per dram down to 375-378) is likely to continue as the economy
has seen a 64 percent rise in exports in January-April this year and
tendencies for a growing amount of remittances from abroad. But the
former Central Bank chairman Bagrat Asatryan still thinks the biggest
factor of this continued appreciation is "the desire of some persons."
"The changes of currency exchange rates or prices in our country are
unpredictable, since economic rules or factors do not work here,"
says Asatryan, who headed Armenia's financial market regulator from
1994 to 1998.
According to him, everything is decided "in closed rooms and by
individuals" and "even high-level officials developing economic
policies do not have influence on these decisions."
"I've said it in the past that even if I were an official, perhaps
I wouldn't be able to change anything, since it is not the Central
Bank management or ministers who are decision-makers," Asatryan told
ArmeniaNow after holding a press conference Friday.
The former official believes it is because of the oligarchic system
that "when commodity prices fall on the international market, the
same prices keep rising in Armenia."
"In the past year the price of petrol in Armenia has risen by about 34
percent, whereas this price on the international market has remained
all but unchanged. Foodstuff prices on the international market have
decreased by 5-10 percent, while in Armenia they have increased by
about 20 percent," said Asatryan.
Against the backdrop of last year's Gross Domestic Product fall of
more than 14 percent, the 7.2 percent economic growth recorded in the
first four months this year reassures members of the government on a
recovery from crisis, but Asatryan says that while being an occasion
for joy, this growth is at the same time "fragile and unreliable".
"This is mainly due to the current situation on the international
metals market, in particularly an unprecedented surge in copper
prices - to $7,000 per ton (compared to $3,000 in 2009). But an
economic growth cannot be reliable only due to metal exports,"
concluded Asatryan.
From: A. Papazian
NAZIK ARMENAKYAN
ArmeniaNow
By Gayane Abrahamyan
ArmeniaNow reporter
04.06.10
The appreciation of Armenia's national currency, the dram, observed
in the past two weeks (seeing the dollar exchange rate dropping from
400 per dram down to 375-378) is likely to continue as the economy
has seen a 64 percent rise in exports in January-April this year and
tendencies for a growing amount of remittances from abroad. But the
former Central Bank chairman Bagrat Asatryan still thinks the biggest
factor of this continued appreciation is "the desire of some persons."
"The changes of currency exchange rates or prices in our country are
unpredictable, since economic rules or factors do not work here,"
says Asatryan, who headed Armenia's financial market regulator from
1994 to 1998.
According to him, everything is decided "in closed rooms and by
individuals" and "even high-level officials developing economic
policies do not have influence on these decisions."
"I've said it in the past that even if I were an official, perhaps
I wouldn't be able to change anything, since it is not the Central
Bank management or ministers who are decision-makers," Asatryan told
ArmeniaNow after holding a press conference Friday.
The former official believes it is because of the oligarchic system
that "when commodity prices fall on the international market, the
same prices keep rising in Armenia."
"In the past year the price of petrol in Armenia has risen by about 34
percent, whereas this price on the international market has remained
all but unchanged. Foodstuff prices on the international market have
decreased by 5-10 percent, while in Armenia they have increased by
about 20 percent," said Asatryan.
Against the backdrop of last year's Gross Domestic Product fall of
more than 14 percent, the 7.2 percent economic growth recorded in the
first four months this year reassures members of the government on a
recovery from crisis, but Asatryan says that while being an occasion
for joy, this growth is at the same time "fragile and unreliable".
"This is mainly due to the current situation on the international
metals market, in particularly an unprecedented surge in copper
prices - to $7,000 per ton (compared to $3,000 in 2009). But an
economic growth cannot be reliable only due to metal exports,"
concluded Asatryan.
From: A. Papazian