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UKRAINIAN ANALYST: NEW DECLARATION ON NAGORNO-KARABAKH MAY BE ADOPTED
T. Teymur
Today
http://www.today.az/news/politics/62 918.html
March 2 2010
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with senior consultant at Ukraine's National Institute
of International Security Problems Elena Kotelyanets.
In your opinion, how will the Azerbaijan-Ukraine ties develop further
under the new President Viktor Yanukovych?
Azerbaijan is a key post-Soviet country the relations with which are
especially important for Ukraine. Possible diversification of energy
supply to our country depends on proper model of this relationship.
Maintaining friendly and mutually beneficial Ukrainian-Azerbaijani
relations meets national interest of both countries.
Worthy of note is that the Ukrainian-Azerbaijani relations were
established in mid-1990s and have not been corrected since then. In
our opinion, their current model is a chronic and unbalanced because
of the lack of comprehensive analysis and feasibility study into
foreign policy strategy.
Given Yanukovych's campaign rhetoric that deepening cooperation
between the CIS countries is priority, one should expect pragmatism in
relations between Ukraine and Azerbaijan: transition from declarative
mood and emotion to economic feasibility and mutual benefit.
And how do you see the future of GUAM? Will the new Ukrainian President
change country's foreing policy towards this organization?
Lack of last year's summit of the GUAM member states, which failed to
compensate for the meeting of the Parliamentary Assembly and activities
at the Foreign Ministry level, confirmed limited resource base of the
organization and low interest in its further development both by the
participants themselves and external donors. We can assume that without
reforms, GUAM's official status will continue to decline and as a
result the regional organization for economy and security may turn into
only a political and consultative forum for participating countries.
It is likely that under a new president, Ukraine (together with
Georgia) will cease to be a locomotive for the development of the
organization and main initiator of reforms. Because Yanukovych is
more interested in regional initiatives aimed at development of
free economic zones, rather than deeper cooperation within such
organizations as GUAM. The Ukrainian side is likely to agree with
the new informal status of the organization as a kind of platform
for discussion and consultation.
What are Ukraine's chances for further integration with the European
Union and NATO?
Key task of national foreign policy is to preserve Ukraine's
non-aligned status. This is the main thesis of Viktor Yanukovych's
election campaign which he will realize as a president of the country.
Nevertheless, under the new leadership Ukraine's will not radically
refect to integrate with the NATO because the current Ukrainian
legislation regulates the Ukraine's integration with Euro-Atlantic
structures.
Any change in country's foreign policy requires corrections to the
national security strategy which the current leadership can not
afford due to absence of parliamentary majority. However, Ukraine
may review its Euro-Atlantic policy gradually. Thus, it is possible
that we abandon the rhetoric of integration with NATO and informally
replace it with close cooperation with the Euro-Atlantic structures
under the Individual Partnership Plan.
Under new political situation inside the country, Ukraine will
unlikely give up Euro-Atlantic aspirations and will continue to
cooperate with the EU in the region through "Eastern Partnership"
policy and "Black Sea Synergy" which, in turn, will bring us closer
to obtaining associate membership.
What, in your opinion, we should expect from the Nagorno-Karabakh
negotiations for next few months?
Recently intensified Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations may be indicative
of a certain progress in finding solutions to the conflict as well as
preparation of a framework agreement on the matter. A new declaration
like the Mein Dorf Declaration may be adopted as well. As a key
mediator in settlement of the Karabakh conflict, Russia is trying
to revive this agreement and give it a new meaning. This scheme,
which failed in late 2008, may become realistic under new conditions
after the U.S. stimulates the process of normalizing Turkish-Armenian
relations.
However, whatever outcome of subsequent meetings between the presidents
of the conflicting parties is, it is necessary to understand that
warming Russian-Turkish, Armenian-Turkish and Russian-Azerbaijani
relations will impact the Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement. The
result will also depend on political will and the level of compromise
of the conflicting parties, as well as consensus among the major
global players on the various components of the settlement of the
Karabakh conflict.
T. Teymur
Today
http://www.today.az/news/politics/62 918.html
March 2 2010
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with senior consultant at Ukraine's National Institute
of International Security Problems Elena Kotelyanets.
In your opinion, how will the Azerbaijan-Ukraine ties develop further
under the new President Viktor Yanukovych?
Azerbaijan is a key post-Soviet country the relations with which are
especially important for Ukraine. Possible diversification of energy
supply to our country depends on proper model of this relationship.
Maintaining friendly and mutually beneficial Ukrainian-Azerbaijani
relations meets national interest of both countries.
Worthy of note is that the Ukrainian-Azerbaijani relations were
established in mid-1990s and have not been corrected since then. In
our opinion, their current model is a chronic and unbalanced because
of the lack of comprehensive analysis and feasibility study into
foreign policy strategy.
Given Yanukovych's campaign rhetoric that deepening cooperation
between the CIS countries is priority, one should expect pragmatism in
relations between Ukraine and Azerbaijan: transition from declarative
mood and emotion to economic feasibility and mutual benefit.
And how do you see the future of GUAM? Will the new Ukrainian President
change country's foreing policy towards this organization?
Lack of last year's summit of the GUAM member states, which failed to
compensate for the meeting of the Parliamentary Assembly and activities
at the Foreign Ministry level, confirmed limited resource base of the
organization and low interest in its further development both by the
participants themselves and external donors. We can assume that without
reforms, GUAM's official status will continue to decline and as a
result the regional organization for economy and security may turn into
only a political and consultative forum for participating countries.
It is likely that under a new president, Ukraine (together with
Georgia) will cease to be a locomotive for the development of the
organization and main initiator of reforms. Because Yanukovych is
more interested in regional initiatives aimed at development of
free economic zones, rather than deeper cooperation within such
organizations as GUAM. The Ukrainian side is likely to agree with
the new informal status of the organization as a kind of platform
for discussion and consultation.
What are Ukraine's chances for further integration with the European
Union and NATO?
Key task of national foreign policy is to preserve Ukraine's
non-aligned status. This is the main thesis of Viktor Yanukovych's
election campaign which he will realize as a president of the country.
Nevertheless, under the new leadership Ukraine's will not radically
refect to integrate with the NATO because the current Ukrainian
legislation regulates the Ukraine's integration with Euro-Atlantic
structures.
Any change in country's foreign policy requires corrections to the
national security strategy which the current leadership can not
afford due to absence of parliamentary majority. However, Ukraine
may review its Euro-Atlantic policy gradually. Thus, it is possible
that we abandon the rhetoric of integration with NATO and informally
replace it with close cooperation with the Euro-Atlantic structures
under the Individual Partnership Plan.
Under new political situation inside the country, Ukraine will
unlikely give up Euro-Atlantic aspirations and will continue to
cooperate with the EU in the region through "Eastern Partnership"
policy and "Black Sea Synergy" which, in turn, will bring us closer
to obtaining associate membership.
What, in your opinion, we should expect from the Nagorno-Karabakh
negotiations for next few months?
Recently intensified Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations may be indicative
of a certain progress in finding solutions to the conflict as well as
preparation of a framework agreement on the matter. A new declaration
like the Mein Dorf Declaration may be adopted as well. As a key
mediator in settlement of the Karabakh conflict, Russia is trying
to revive this agreement and give it a new meaning. This scheme,
which failed in late 2008, may become realistic under new conditions
after the U.S. stimulates the process of normalizing Turkish-Armenian
relations.
However, whatever outcome of subsequent meetings between the presidents
of the conflicting parties is, it is necessary to understand that
warming Russian-Turkish, Armenian-Turkish and Russian-Azerbaijani
relations will impact the Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement. The
result will also depend on political will and the level of compromise
of the conflicting parties, as well as consensus among the major
global players on the various components of the settlement of the
Karabakh conflict.