Tweet
BAKU'S WAR DRUMS OVER KARABAKH 'SOUND HOLLOW'
by Semih Idiz
Milliyet
Feb 27 2010
Turkey
The normalization process between Turkey and Armenia has stalled, and
the sound of "war drums" from Baku will evidently raise tensions even
more. Azerbaijan's Minister of Defence, Safar Abiyev, reportedly said
that "a major war in the South Caucasus is inevitable" if Armenians
do not withdraw from Karabakh. In that context, he also said that
"the army's time has come."
Abiyev reportedly made these remarks during talks with French
Ambassador Gabriel Keller, one of the co-chairmen of the Minsk Group,
which has been seeking a solution to the Karabakh problem under the
aegis of the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe.
Abiyev's remarks are consistent with Azeri President Ilham Aliyev's
comments reported in the press. In those comments, Aliyev said:
"We are spending billions on new weapons because we do not rule out
the option of using force."
We should take a look at how realistic Aliyev's and Abiyev's comments
are.
First, acquiring weapons that cost billions of dollars does not
guarantee victory in a war on its own. We have seen many examples of
this across the world. In other words, the outcome of a war largely
depends on the "human factor."
The international reports we read about the state of the Azeri army
make us seriously question whether Baku is in a position to win a
war against Armenia on its own. In other words, [Azerbaijan] cannot
disregard the risk of losing even more if it embarks on a new war in
the region.
Another serious issue is: What country would provide Baku with
military or diplomatic support if it tries to regain Karabakh from
the Armenians using force? Would Russia, which protects Armenia's
border with Turkey today, come to its aid?
There are signs that Baku has tilted towards Moscow recently because
it is angry with Turkey over its Armenian overture and it sees the
United States behind this initiative. Nonetheless, it would make no
sense for Moscow to support any military operation Baku may undertake
in Karabakh.
The close current relationship between Moscow and Yerevan aside,
today many Azeris believe that it was the assistance of Russian "OMON
units" that allowed the Armenians to seize Karabakh in the first
place. It is clear as daylight that not a single member of the Minsk
Group would support a military initiative by Baku. Needless to say,
Armenia would also enjoy the West's sympathy in such a war.
Would Iran, Baku's "religious and sectarian kin," support it in such
a war? If there is such an expectation, it can only be described
as fantasy. Tehran would like to avoid arousing the nationalistic
instincts of its large Azeri minority. It also has very close relations
with Yerevan. In these circumstances, it would be naive to think
that Tehran would take sides in any new war that may erupt in the
South Caucasus.
That leaves Turkey. It is not hard to guess that Azerbaijan would
enjoy the support of individuals or groups within Turkey, especially
those aligned with the Idealists, in such a war. A certain level of
diplomatic support could also be expected. However, sensible Azeris
can probably see that Ankara cannot provide overt military support
to Baku in such a war.
In sum, Aliyev's and Abiyev's comments in favour of a war sound
hollow. The billions of dollars spent on armaments notwithstanding,
Baku is in no position to go to war. Nor has it any assurances that
it can win what it wants if it goes to war.
In other words, the solution of the Karabakh problem has to be
diplomatic. Furthermore, both sides must understand that this will
not be a "zero sum" solution - that is, it will not be a solution in
which one side loses and the other side wins everything.
Ultimately, the solution will be achieved through concessions by both
sides. If that does not happen, the current deadlock will continue. In
the meantime, having noted Baku's recent narrative, Yerevan will seek
ways of bolstering its own military strength.
Consequently, even if our Azeri friends get upset, we have to
underscore that what their leaders are suggesting is not realistic.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
by Semih Idiz
Milliyet
Feb 27 2010
Turkey
The normalization process between Turkey and Armenia has stalled, and
the sound of "war drums" from Baku will evidently raise tensions even
more. Azerbaijan's Minister of Defence, Safar Abiyev, reportedly said
that "a major war in the South Caucasus is inevitable" if Armenians
do not withdraw from Karabakh. In that context, he also said that
"the army's time has come."
Abiyev reportedly made these remarks during talks with French
Ambassador Gabriel Keller, one of the co-chairmen of the Minsk Group,
which has been seeking a solution to the Karabakh problem under the
aegis of the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe.
Abiyev's remarks are consistent with Azeri President Ilham Aliyev's
comments reported in the press. In those comments, Aliyev said:
"We are spending billions on new weapons because we do not rule out
the option of using force."
We should take a look at how realistic Aliyev's and Abiyev's comments
are.
First, acquiring weapons that cost billions of dollars does not
guarantee victory in a war on its own. We have seen many examples of
this across the world. In other words, the outcome of a war largely
depends on the "human factor."
The international reports we read about the state of the Azeri army
make us seriously question whether Baku is in a position to win a
war against Armenia on its own. In other words, [Azerbaijan] cannot
disregard the risk of losing even more if it embarks on a new war in
the region.
Another serious issue is: What country would provide Baku with
military or diplomatic support if it tries to regain Karabakh from
the Armenians using force? Would Russia, which protects Armenia's
border with Turkey today, come to its aid?
There are signs that Baku has tilted towards Moscow recently because
it is angry with Turkey over its Armenian overture and it sees the
United States behind this initiative. Nonetheless, it would make no
sense for Moscow to support any military operation Baku may undertake
in Karabakh.
The close current relationship between Moscow and Yerevan aside,
today many Azeris believe that it was the assistance of Russian "OMON
units" that allowed the Armenians to seize Karabakh in the first
place. It is clear as daylight that not a single member of the Minsk
Group would support a military initiative by Baku. Needless to say,
Armenia would also enjoy the West's sympathy in such a war.
Would Iran, Baku's "religious and sectarian kin," support it in such
a war? If there is such an expectation, it can only be described
as fantasy. Tehran would like to avoid arousing the nationalistic
instincts of its large Azeri minority. It also has very close relations
with Yerevan. In these circumstances, it would be naive to think
that Tehran would take sides in any new war that may erupt in the
South Caucasus.
That leaves Turkey. It is not hard to guess that Azerbaijan would
enjoy the support of individuals or groups within Turkey, especially
those aligned with the Idealists, in such a war. A certain level of
diplomatic support could also be expected. However, sensible Azeris
can probably see that Ankara cannot provide overt military support
to Baku in such a war.
In sum, Aliyev's and Abiyev's comments in favour of a war sound
hollow. The billions of dollars spent on armaments notwithstanding,
Baku is in no position to go to war. Nor has it any assurances that
it can win what it wants if it goes to war.
In other words, the solution of the Karabakh problem has to be
diplomatic. Furthermore, both sides must understand that this will
not be a "zero sum" solution - that is, it will not be a solution in
which one side loses and the other side wins everything.
Ultimately, the solution will be achieved through concessions by both
sides. If that does not happen, the current deadlock will continue. In
the meantime, having noted Baku's recent narrative, Yerevan will seek
ways of bolstering its own military strength.
Consequently, even if our Azeri friends get upset, we have to
underscore that what their leaders are suggesting is not realistic.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress