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IAN LESSER: HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES' DECISION NOT TO SERIOUS DISRUPTION IN US-TURKISH RELATIONS
APA
March 10 2010
Azerbaijan
Washington. Isabel Levine - APA. Ian Lesser, former member of the
Secretary's Policy Planning Staff at the US Department of State,
where his portfolio included southern Europe and Turkey believes
that the decision of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House
of Representatives on "Armenian genocide" is unlikely to materially
affect the prospects for conflict resolution on multiple fronts in
the Caucasus and Black Sea region.
"I do not expect this to lead to serious disruption in US-Turkish
relations, at least at this point", Mr. Lesser, who currently is senior
transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fond in US Capital told
APA's Washington correspondent.
According to him, the committee vote was not unexpected: "It has
happened before. In fact, the vote in committee was closer than some
might have predicted".
Speaking about the future influences of the US Congress Committee's
decision, Mr. Lesser stressed that, in strategic terms, Turkey's
position on Iran nuclear issues and a likely vote in the UNSC is a
more important test.
"In my view, the stakes and policies of regional actors -- Turkey,
Azerbaijan, Armenia are the key drivers rather than the actions
of external powers. If the parties are willing to take risks for
resolution, there will be progress. If not, not" - he added.
Another analyst, Marko Papic from STRATFOR notices to APA's Washington
correspondent that, the decision of the Committee on Foreign Affairs
of the House of Representatives on "Armenian genocide" has harmed U.S.
- Turkish relations, mainly because a more assertive and independent
Ankara is not taking this resolution lightly"
He pointed out that, Turkish opposition is also using this as a way
to criticize the government and put pressure on Erdogan, calling for
him to cancel his visit to the U.S. in April.
However, according to Mr. Papic, this is not the first time the House
Foreign Affairs Committee passed such a non-binding measures and it
still requires the rest of the House of Representatives to vote.
"The U.S. President, however, has made it clear that he will work
to block the resolution in the House, which is actually a change
from his campaign promise in 2008. Therefore, we expect the vote
to create a stir in Turkish-American relations in the short term,
but in the medium/long term the U.S. executive will be able to
block the move. It will be interesting to see how Turkey interprets
U.S. President Barack Obama's change in policy towards the genocide
issue. They may very well interpret it as a clear sign that U.S. is
bending to Turkish demands, which it is, and that it is yet another
sign of Ankara's rising power. Turkey would not be wrong in either
of those assessments. The question is whether that will encourage
Turkey to be even bolder in its foreign policy".
Answering the question, if there could be any negative impact on
the Nagorno-Karabakh process after the decision of US congressmen,
STRATFOR analyst mentioned that Turkey would likely scuttle the
Turkish-Armenian process, which would of course then also have
negative repercussions for the Nagorno-Karabakh process. "However,
the likelihood that the resolution comes to full vote before the House
is unlikely and therefore not something that at this point one should
extrapolate from".
APA
March 10 2010
Azerbaijan
Washington. Isabel Levine - APA. Ian Lesser, former member of the
Secretary's Policy Planning Staff at the US Department of State,
where his portfolio included southern Europe and Turkey believes
that the decision of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House
of Representatives on "Armenian genocide" is unlikely to materially
affect the prospects for conflict resolution on multiple fronts in
the Caucasus and Black Sea region.
"I do not expect this to lead to serious disruption in US-Turkish
relations, at least at this point", Mr. Lesser, who currently is senior
transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fond in US Capital told
APA's Washington correspondent.
According to him, the committee vote was not unexpected: "It has
happened before. In fact, the vote in committee was closer than some
might have predicted".
Speaking about the future influences of the US Congress Committee's
decision, Mr. Lesser stressed that, in strategic terms, Turkey's
position on Iran nuclear issues and a likely vote in the UNSC is a
more important test.
"In my view, the stakes and policies of regional actors -- Turkey,
Azerbaijan, Armenia are the key drivers rather than the actions
of external powers. If the parties are willing to take risks for
resolution, there will be progress. If not, not" - he added.
Another analyst, Marko Papic from STRATFOR notices to APA's Washington
correspondent that, the decision of the Committee on Foreign Affairs
of the House of Representatives on "Armenian genocide" has harmed U.S.
- Turkish relations, mainly because a more assertive and independent
Ankara is not taking this resolution lightly"
He pointed out that, Turkish opposition is also using this as a way
to criticize the government and put pressure on Erdogan, calling for
him to cancel his visit to the U.S. in April.
However, according to Mr. Papic, this is not the first time the House
Foreign Affairs Committee passed such a non-binding measures and it
still requires the rest of the House of Representatives to vote.
"The U.S. President, however, has made it clear that he will work
to block the resolution in the House, which is actually a change
from his campaign promise in 2008. Therefore, we expect the vote
to create a stir in Turkish-American relations in the short term,
but in the medium/long term the U.S. executive will be able to
block the move. It will be interesting to see how Turkey interprets
U.S. President Barack Obama's change in policy towards the genocide
issue. They may very well interpret it as a clear sign that U.S. is
bending to Turkish demands, which it is, and that it is yet another
sign of Ankara's rising power. Turkey would not be wrong in either
of those assessments. The question is whether that will encourage
Turkey to be even bolder in its foreign policy".
Answering the question, if there could be any negative impact on
the Nagorno-Karabakh process after the decision of US congressmen,
STRATFOR analyst mentioned that Turkey would likely scuttle the
Turkish-Armenian process, which would of course then also have
negative repercussions for the Nagorno-Karabakh process. "However,
the likelihood that the resolution comes to full vote before the House
is unlikely and therefore not something that at this point one should
extrapolate from".