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BAKU: Turkey, Armenia Can Improve Ties 'Without Karabakh Settlement'

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  • BAKU: Turkey, Armenia Can Improve Ties 'Without Karabakh Settlement'

    TURKEY, ARMENIA CAN IMPROVE TIES 'WITHOUT KARABAKH SETTLEMENT'

    news.az
    March 29 2010
    Azerbaijan

    Paul Kubicek News.Az interviews Paul Kubicek, chair of the Department
    of Political Science, Oakland University, Michigan.

    What are the main threats to stability in the South Caucasus and to
    the region's integration into Europe?

    There remain numerous sources of instability in the region, not
    the least of which is the situation in Georgia and the uncertainty
    about the status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. While I would not
    expect Georgia to attack the Russian positions, I do not think the
    international community will recognize the independence of these
    regions and I expect the Russians to remain there. As for Azerbaijan,
    the continued struggle to resolve Nagorno-Karabakh remains a major
    problem, of course, even if the fighting is less pronounced than it
    once was.

    As for European integration, those states that want to cooperate
    with the EU can do so within the European Neighbourhood Policy, which
    could bring aid and access to European markets. However, I doubt any
    of the states will become a candidate country in the near future.

    How would you describe Turkey's regional role?

    Turkey wants to assume a more pronounced international role and to
    have good relations with all its neighbours. The opening to Armenia,
    the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, and Turkish diplomacy on Iran demonstrate
    this. However, I do not think Turkey is strong or credible enough to
    forge peace settlements, e.g. between Georgia and Russia. However,
    I expect Turkish investment and involvement to remain very visible.

    Armenia still demands recognition of 'genocide' from Turkey and
    the international community. As a result, the normalization process
    between Turkey and Armenia seems to have stopped. How do you see the
    future of bilateral relations?

    This is a very difficult question. Ideally, middle ground could be
    found, maybe one that would stop short of using the word genocide
    but still acknowledging the great loss of life of Armenians. I think
    the Turkish government and the Armenian government were very brave to
    open normalizing relations, because there is opposition in to it in
    both countries. Perhaps if scholars on both sides could take a lead
    in fostering dialogue and research, this would help.

    Azerbaijan talks about a direct link between Armenia-Turkish relations
    and a Karabakh settlement. What is your opinion?

    I can understand the position of Baku, but Turkey may want to
    demonstrate good relations with Armenia as it eyes EU membership. I can
    imagine Turkey and Armenia improving ties without a final settlement
    of Karabakh.
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