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BAKU: Azerbaijani Expert: Serzh Sargsyan Does Not Control The Situat

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  • BAKU: Azerbaijani Expert: Serzh Sargsyan Does Not Control The Situat

    AZERBAIJANI EXPERT: SERZH SARGSYAN DOES NOT CONTROL THE SITUATION

    Today
    http://www.today.az/news/politics /67176.html
    May 3 2010
    Azerbaijan

    Day.Az interview with expert at the Azerbaijan-based Lider TV Tofiq
    Abbasov.

    As of late, the Armenian diaspora has stepped up efforts to push
    "Armenian genocide" bills through the parliaments worldwide. In your
    opinion, may the diaspora achieve this?

    The diaspora has stepped up efforts as it wants to show Yerevan
    its importance and capacity. In order not to lose its influence
    within Armenia, diaspora offers its services to obscure the issue of
    liberation of the occupied Azerbaijani lands.

    Moreover, Armenians show high activity in a attempt to gain support
    of international community and thus demonstrate to neighbors that a
    number of states support Armenia in its withdrawal from the isolation
    and in the so-called "genocide".

    In this regard, political idealism of the Armenian leaders prevails
    over pragmatism. After all, our neighbors need real action to end
    this isolation.

    Three so-called subjects are involved in all processes related to
    the so-called Armenian issue. These are Armenia itself, Karabakh
    separatists and the diaspora. When it is time to take drastic
    decisions, they will start sorting out relationships and blackmail
    each-other. The reason is that they intend to share benefits of
    these solutions.

    There is a real chaos among current players. This cannot but be a
    matter of concern, since the lack of true unity among them hinders
    important processes.

    Unfortunately, in this situation Sargsyan does not show principled
    position, because he does not control the situation. He follows the
    tastes of others. Therefore, the Diaspora mobilizes resources to
    demonstrate its influence to Yerevan and make it clear for Sargsyan
    that he must reckon with it.

    This whole mess is not in favor of the peace process and places a
    heavy burden on the entire region.

    Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will trip to Turkey on May 11. In
    your opinion, what issues will top agenda of talks in Turkey?

    I think the agenda will cover energy projects, because Turkey
    and Russia have carefully co-ordinated the "South Stream" project
    and agreed on possible new transits. Regional problems, issues of
    Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and Armenian-Turkish relations will also
    be discussed.

    But Russia is not very interested in reconciliation between Armenia
    and Turkey, because it is not going to lose its dominant position
    over Yerevan. So, I do not rule out that regional conflicts will be
    discussed in the usual sluggish mode.

    In addition, there is another important issue related to the future
    of the Black Sea basin. Neither Russia nor Turkey want the status quo
    to change as it has an advantage for fleets of these countries in the
    water area. The two countries will coordinate approaches to ensure
    that under no circumstances naval compounds of powerful nations enter
    this area.

    In your view, how this visit may impact the Armenia-Turkey
    normalization and Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement?

    I do not think there is particular progress in this issue. Though in
    recent years the Americans have been too active in the Turkish-Armenian
    format, Russia's task is to delay the reconciliation.

    In principle, Russia is not so prone to ensure that the two countries
    make peace. Once Armenian-Turkish border is opened, America will
    strengthen foothold in Armenia. Secondly, pro-Western forces in
    Armenia will become active. Russia will by all means try so that the
    Turkish-Armenian border remains closed.

    With regard to settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, if the
    current Turkish government is really interested in addressing this
    problem, Ankara and Moscow have prerequisites for the effective
    cooperation in this matter. Together, they will be able to make
    the Armenian side to start moving in the direction of the Madrid
    principles.

    How do you comment on Iran's peacemaking initiatives in the settlement
    of Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

    Iran has demonstrated its activity many times trying to secure
    political gains on the foreign policy front. Besides, it does not
    want to have tensions along its northern borders. But it seems to me
    that Iran needs to reconsider its relations with Armenia to ensure
    success of the initiative and win Azerbaijan's trust.

    Iran should have put pressure on Armenia long time ago. But it has not
    done it yet, because the West encouraged Iran to help Armenia. This
    theme, incidentally, has consistently existed in the format of those
    agreements that Iranians and Western politicians have exchanged.

    As to the future of this initiative, I think, there is little reason
    for optimism. Neither the West nor Russia would agree to see the
    Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to be settled without their participation.

    They will not allow it happen because failure of the OSCE Minsk Group
    to mediate will be a reverse side of the coin.
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