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ANKARA MUM ON CLAIM OF THWARTED AZERI-ARMENIA WAR
Hurriyet
May 4 2010
Turkey
Officials keep silent on claims by an opposition Azerbaijani newspaper
that the National Intelligence Organization dissuaded Baku from an
attack on Karabakh.
Ankara has neither confirmed nor denied claims that Turkey's
intelligence agency prevented an Azerbaijani military operation in
the occupied Nagorno-Karabakh region immediately before Turkey and
Armenia signed historic protocols last year.
The National Intelligence Organization, or MÄ°T, has also not released
any statement concerning the allegations, which were first published
in one of Azerbaijan's most influential opposition newspapers,
Yeni Musavat.
The Azerbaijani report appeared on the front page of daily Hurriyet
on Tuesday with a headline that said MÄ°T had thwarted a Karabakh war.
The Turkish government did, however, voice support for dialogue
between the South Caucasus rivals. "We are in favor of the resolution
of problems through dialogue," Foreign Ministry sources told the
Hurriyet Daily News & Economic Review on Tuesday.
Azerbaijani reports
"By averting the Azerbaijani operation, Turkey prevented the
normalization process with Armenia from being undermined and its
own dignity from being harmed. The essence and the secret of the
relationship taking shape between Turkey and Azerbaijan depends on
this matter," the Azerbaijani newspaper wrote.
"Had Azerbaijan begun a military operation during that period, the
Armenian initiative of the [ruling Justice and Development Party]
AKP would have entirely collapsed," Yeni Musavat added. According to
the paper, the alleged military operation took place about one year
before Turkey and Armenia signed deals in October 2009 in Zurich,
Switzerland, to establish diplomatic relations.
The Azerbaijani newspaper also claimed that options for military
operations were reviewed. "The reception of the Nakhchivan Autonomous
Republic's Parliament Speaker Vasif Talibov at the highest level in
Turkey could be a part of Ankara's plan to stop Azerbaijan," it said.
Turkish diplomatic sources said the high-level welcome of the
Nakhchivan official was only natural because Turkey is a guarantor
country in Nakhchivan under the Kars Agreement.
Turkish experts express doubt
Dr. Burcu Gultekin Punsmann, a senior foreign-policy analyst at the
Turkish think tank TEPAV, also declined to comment on the veracity
of the facts.
"I would, however, doubt that [Azerbaijani] President [Ä°lham]
Aliyev could have seriously considered undertaking such a hazardous
action," she said. "I can't try to assess a military outcome of a
new Azerbaijani-Armenian war over Nagorno-Karabakh; the worst thing
in such a situation is always to underestimate the enemy."
"What I know is that this war would be disastrous for the whole
region," she added, referring to the five-day August 2008 war between
Russia and Georgia over South Ossetia that highlighted the disruptive
potential of renewed conflict anywhere in the South Caucasus.
"Beyond a doubt, Azerbaijan is the country that has benefited the
most from the return of stability to the South Caucasus region in
the second half of the 1990s," Punsmann said. "With the resumption
of war, energy investment projects will stop overnight. There will
be no winner of this war."
Hurriyet
May 4 2010
Turkey
Officials keep silent on claims by an opposition Azerbaijani newspaper
that the National Intelligence Organization dissuaded Baku from an
attack on Karabakh.
Ankara has neither confirmed nor denied claims that Turkey's
intelligence agency prevented an Azerbaijani military operation in
the occupied Nagorno-Karabakh region immediately before Turkey and
Armenia signed historic protocols last year.
The National Intelligence Organization, or MÄ°T, has also not released
any statement concerning the allegations, which were first published
in one of Azerbaijan's most influential opposition newspapers,
Yeni Musavat.
The Azerbaijani report appeared on the front page of daily Hurriyet
on Tuesday with a headline that said MÄ°T had thwarted a Karabakh war.
The Turkish government did, however, voice support for dialogue
between the South Caucasus rivals. "We are in favor of the resolution
of problems through dialogue," Foreign Ministry sources told the
Hurriyet Daily News & Economic Review on Tuesday.
Azerbaijani reports
"By averting the Azerbaijani operation, Turkey prevented the
normalization process with Armenia from being undermined and its
own dignity from being harmed. The essence and the secret of the
relationship taking shape between Turkey and Azerbaijan depends on
this matter," the Azerbaijani newspaper wrote.
"Had Azerbaijan begun a military operation during that period, the
Armenian initiative of the [ruling Justice and Development Party]
AKP would have entirely collapsed," Yeni Musavat added. According to
the paper, the alleged military operation took place about one year
before Turkey and Armenia signed deals in October 2009 in Zurich,
Switzerland, to establish diplomatic relations.
The Azerbaijani newspaper also claimed that options for military
operations were reviewed. "The reception of the Nakhchivan Autonomous
Republic's Parliament Speaker Vasif Talibov at the highest level in
Turkey could be a part of Ankara's plan to stop Azerbaijan," it said.
Turkish diplomatic sources said the high-level welcome of the
Nakhchivan official was only natural because Turkey is a guarantor
country in Nakhchivan under the Kars Agreement.
Turkish experts express doubt
Dr. Burcu Gultekin Punsmann, a senior foreign-policy analyst at the
Turkish think tank TEPAV, also declined to comment on the veracity
of the facts.
"I would, however, doubt that [Azerbaijani] President [Ä°lham]
Aliyev could have seriously considered undertaking such a hazardous
action," she said. "I can't try to assess a military outcome of a
new Azerbaijani-Armenian war over Nagorno-Karabakh; the worst thing
in such a situation is always to underestimate the enemy."
"What I know is that this war would be disastrous for the whole
region," she added, referring to the five-day August 2008 war between
Russia and Georgia over South Ossetia that highlighted the disruptive
potential of renewed conflict anywhere in the South Caucasus.
"Beyond a doubt, Azerbaijan is the country that has benefited the
most from the return of stability to the South Caucasus region in
the second half of the 1990s," Punsmann said. "With the resumption
of war, energy investment projects will stop overnight. There will
be no winner of this war."