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News Spotlight: Nagorno-Karabakh And The Minsk Group Negotiations

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  • News Spotlight: Nagorno-Karabakh And The Minsk Group Negotiations

    NEWS SPOTLIGHT: NAGORNO-KARABAKH AND THE MINSK GROUP NEGOTIATIONS
    Kari Lipschutz

    World Politics Review
    http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/blog/550 4/news-spotlight-nagorno-karabakh-and-the-minsk-gr oup-negotiations
    May 6 2010

    The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group met today in a closed meeting
    to discuss the current state of negotiations between Armenia and
    Azerbaijan on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In an e-mail interview,
    Thomas de Waal, senior associate of the Carnegie Endowment for
    International Peace, explains where negotiations stand today.

    WPR: What are the principle issues that still need to be resolved in
    the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

    De Waal: The fundamental unresolved issue in the Nagorno-Karabakh
    conflict is the same one that triggered the conflict back in Soviet
    times in the Gorbachev era in February 1988: the status of the disputed
    territory of Nagorno-Karabakh itself. The Karabakh Armenians -- who
    have been in full control of the territory and surrounding regions
    since fighting ended between the two sides in 1994 -- insist that
    Karabakh be recognized either as independent or unified with Armenia,
    while the Azerbaijani authorities demand that it is a de jure part
    of Azerbaijan and must be reaffirmed as such. The document on the
    table attempts to resolve this issue with creative ambiguity about
    postponing the issue of status, but the two sides still have polarized
    positions and will not move until they get greater clarity supporting
    their own stance.

    WPR: How is that conflict impacting Turkey-Armenia normalization?

    De Waal: The non-resolution of the Karabakh conflict is the principle
    reason why the Armenia-Turkey normalization process came to a halt
    in April when Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian suspended Armenian
    official participation in the process. Turkey was insisting on making
    a linkage between Armenia-Turkey normalization and the Karabakh
    conflict that was not in the protocols the two sides signed in October
    2009. That is not because Turkey cares deeply about the Karabakh issue
    as such, but it does care about its relations with its Turkic ally,
    Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan did enough to lobby in the Turkish parliament
    and to threaten Turkey with higher gas prices to dissuade the Turkish
    government from pursuing the normalization policy. Now, unless there
    is progress on the Karabakh conflict, it is highly unlikely that the
    Armenia-Turkey process will move forward again.

    WPR: Recent reports suggested progress has been made in the Minsk
    Group negotiations. What's the likelihood for a breakthrough?

    De Waal: Unfortunately the Minsk Group negotiations are deadlocked
    at the moment. This time it is the Armenian side that does not want
    to engage properly with the latest version of the so-called "Madrid
    Principles" under discussion. On previous occasions, Azerbaijan has
    pulled back. But there are deeper problems with the negotiations: It is
    far too narrow a process to get the kind of traction needed to resolve
    a major conflict. There is almost no Track Two process involving the
    two societies and few international resources are being expended to
    support the U.S., French and Russian mediators. Observers of the peace
    talks have the perception that the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents
    actually prefer the narrowly based desultory peace process, which
    preserves the status quo and produces no results, to a more dynamic
    process that would force them to take hard decisions and make public
    compromises to the enemy.
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