Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

BAKU: The Parliamentary Election May Be Postponed

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • BAKU: The Parliamentary Election May Be Postponed

    THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION MAY BE POSTPONED

    Yeni Musavat
    April 24 2010
    Azerbaijan

    The autumn attack of the authorities; The regime is working on an
    option of resuming the hostilities in Karabakh due to a danger of power
    change; the authorities become aggressive as the West steps up pressure

    By Teymur Maarif and Tofiq Ahmadli [translated from Azeri]

    "Serious processes are under way in the authorities. Amid growing
    Western pressure and as a response to plans of power change in
    Azerbaijan, the authorities have assigned own political technologists
    a task of preparing possible preventive measures. At the bottom of
    this `homework' lies efforts of finding the most effective pretext
    of postponing the upcoming parliamentary elections..."

    Search for scenarios

    This sensational report came to our editorial staff from sources
    close to the authorities. The source said that the authorities are
    working on the most complicated and undesirable scenarios, and decided
    to be ready by the autumn: "As early as the end of last year, some
    Western representatives declared their readiness to implement certain
    democratic programmes in Azerbaijan in the year of the parliamentary
    election. After those reports were in the media, the authorities
    kicked off an anti-US campaign.

    First, US radio stations were taken off FM frequencies. Now the
    situation is that the government is speaking to the sole superpower
    in the language of threat; refuses to attend the scheduled military
    games, expands aggressive campaign against it, turns parliament into
    an anti-American tribune and declares the possibility of revising oil
    contracts... Against this background, there comes news from camps in
    power to newspapers: "America wants a puppet and obedient regime by
    changing power in Azerbaijan..."

    An ally or a target?

    What is happening, what do all these mean? So far it is impossible
    to give an exact response to these questions. However, something is
    exact. The West has indeed managed to create a situation making the
    Azerbaijani authorities to worry. Official Baku is not already allowed
    to attend the processes (in the example of the negotiations in the
    USA) related to Armenians, and Nagornyy Karabakh indirectly. However,
    against this background, official Baku's course towards Russia is
    more obvious and fast. Moreover, the government's ideologist No 1
    and the head of the Presidential Administration [Ramiz Mehdiyev]
    is about to visit Iran which is at war with the USA...

    It is well-known that the West is exerting pressure on the Azerbaijani
    authorities over Nagornyy Karabakh and the Armenian-Turkey talks. The
    point is that the Aliyev government has adhered to an uncompromising
    position in both processes against expectations of the West, in
    particular, the USA. And it almost applied a brake to the rapprochement
    between Armenia and Turkey.

    The tactic of putting pressure on him with all possible means is
    open on the agenda. Moreover, it emerges from incoming reports and
    developments that the issue does not only boil down to pressure. It
    is quite possible that he is being threatened with overthrow in
    the upcoming elections. The Azerbaijani authorities do not promote
    democracy and human rights, restrict freedoms and suffocate freedom
    of speech. This is not new to Washington. This process has been under
    way for 17 years and the incumbent president has been in power for
    seven years. That is to say, all these have nothing in common with
    an increase in West's pressure over its (the regime's) suffocation of
    democracy. Over these years, the West, which cooperated closely with
    the Azerbaijani authorities, has a sole reason for this abrupt change:
    The process over Nagornyy Karabakh is not developing as it wants...

    A chance for opposition to unite

    Therefore, the authorities are being pressurized within all parameters;
    moreover, dissatisfaction is growing day by day in the country due to
    the regime's neglectful policies. However, the Azerbaijani opposition
    being the longest living force in the post-Soviet space, is again
    reviving and has serious claims. Along with them, infighting has
    intensified and it becomes gradually difficult to control them. Given
    this, the parliamentary elections may push the authorities to an
    undesirable situation. As this type of election is not only about
    a post, the opposition forces have the opportunity of setting up
    certain coalitions to get the dissatisfied electorate united. Bearing
    in mind that the foreign factor has significantly changed against
    the authorities, it is possible to calculate in advance that the
    country's professional and selfless opposition would incline to
    serious decisions.

    Several options are open

    After indicating them all as preliminary reasons, let's return to
    content indicated in the introduction: The authorities are making
    preparations for postponing the upcoming parliamentary election!

    According to our information, the political technologists of the
    authorities have been working on this extra option since last year:
    "They kicked off preparations in 2009 for every difficult situation
    expected in 2010. Even a change was made to the constitution in
    last year's referendum on non-conduct of elections and referenda
    in conditions of war. If need be, the authorities intend to take
    advantage of this point. The issue in question is about the dominant
    idea of resuming the hostilities in the authorities under the pretext
    of the deadlocked Karabakh issue. If local operations start, then
    relevant item of the constitution will set into motion immediately
    and the situation in the country will considerably change."

    We got this from a source. The source claims that the Azerbaijani
    authorities are trying to get Russia's neutrality over [Baku's] local
    military operations in Nagornyy Karabakh. It is quite possible that
    they will obtain it. At that point, no doubt local military operations
    will be launched in mid-autumn. A maximum target is also obvious. To
    liberate several villages of one or two districts under occupation,
    or if possible more. However, the issue is not about driving out
    Armenians from Nagornyy Karabakh at all...The matter is designed to
    protect power and gain some results to carve an image of a hero. The
    authorities consider that it is possible to postpone the election
    under the pretext of war and then hold it following changes both at
    home and abroad.

    These are of course risky and not easy as well as adventurist plans.

    At this point, not everything is decided by wishes of the government:
    "The people of Azerbaijan and their opposition are on the stage and
    a lot depends on what position they will stick and what strength
    they possess..."
Working...
X