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Eurasia Review
May 15 2010
New Geopolitics Of The South Caucasus
Saturday, May 15, 2010
By Fareed Shafee for CRIA
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the South Caucasus region was
opened up for the global market as well as competition among global
powers. The dominance of Russia which had lasted for 200 years was
questioned by new actors, primarily the United States, Turkey and
Iran. The South Caucasus, with its vital links to the Black Sea,
Central Asia and Middle East, and its rich natural resources
(primarily oil and gas in the Caspian Sea) became a complex
battleground aggravated by internal problems such as the war between
Armenia and Azerbaijan due to territorial claims of the former with
regard to the latter's Nagorno-Karabakh region.
While the geopolitical conditions of the 1990s were defined internally
by ethnic conflicts, the creation of statehood, and the transition
from communism to a market economy, external factors were connected
with the arrival of the new powers ` the US, EU, Turkey, Iran on one
side, and efforts by Russia to maintain control on the other. A wave
of `colour revolutions' in 2003-2005 further changed the political
landscape of the regional states and increased the possibility of
ending Russian influence in post-Soviet space. However, despite losing
its influence in the 1990s, Russia, due largely to enormous profits
from oil, gained the momentum to strengthen its position by 2008.
New Geopolitical Factors
The last three years have brought forth a new set of conditions which
is likely to affect the states of the region and their foreign policy
agenda. Domestically the states of the region continued to suffer from
ethnic conflicts, but they managed to build viable statehood, and make
progress on market reforms with
Azerbaijan as the leading economic power. However, internationally,
five major developments have been reshaping the region:
-Georgian-Russian War, 2008
-US-Russian Reset, 2009
-Global Financial Crisis, 2009
-Decolourization of Colour Revolutions, 2010
-Armenian-Turkish Rapprochement and its impact on Azerbaijan-Turkey
and Azerbaijan-US relations, 2009-2010
The Georgian-Russian War had adverse effects on the image of the West
in the region. The verbal support from the US, EU and NATO was not
enough to counter the Russian offensive. Russia showed assertively
that it would resort to force rather than yield its influence in the
South Caucasus. Accordingly, attempting to secure NATO membership by
regional countries has posed a direct threat to their sovereignty and
territorial integrity. Post-Soviet countries realized that Russia is
still a mighty power, and the West is not willing to confront her for
the sake of small post-Soviet states.
Further, the US-Russian `reset' declared by the Obama administration
sent a clear message that relations with Russia are much more
significant for the American administration and its Western allies
than relations with other former communist states. However, many
experts might not agree with that conclusion as they point out that
the West continues to boost its relations with post-Soviet countries
through the EU's new Eastern Partnership initiative, NATO's
Partnership for Peace program and other political and economic
channels, the treatment of US allies like Azerbaijan and Georgia in
regards to the April 2010 Washington Nuclear Security Summit speaks
for itself.
On the other side, Russia's bold foreign policy in its so-called `near
abroad', in various political and economic manifestations, was
seriously damaged by the global financial crisis. The Russian economy
endured great losses which affected its ability to sponsor its allies
or show its influence as an economic power. Thus, the former Soviet
countries appreciated the importance of economic relations with the
West and the need for reform of their economies. Exclusive reliance on
Moscow proved to be shaky. Even the new president of Ukraine Viktor
Yanukovich, a staunch Russian ally, paid his first foreign visit to
Brussels, exhibiting the desire of the new Ukrainian leadership to
move closer to the West in terms of its economic preferences.
The victory of Yanukovich in the latest elections in Ukraine changed
the colour of the 2004 `Orange Revolution' which brought his
predecessor, Viktor Yushchenko, to power. A similar development took
place in Kyrgyzstan, which has recently seen the overthrow of the
victor of the `Tulip Revolution', Kurmanbek_Bakiyev. Though it would
be an overstatement to assert the failure of the `colour revolutions'
- since the elections in Ukraine manifested the democratic changes in
the country - nevertheless, we can speak about, at least, the
decolourization or change of colour of past revolutions. The latest
trend shows that post-Soviet countries cannot be reformed quickly, and
a change is not simply about the removal of one leader for the sake of
another. The process of democracy requires a profound transformation
of all layers of society, the gradual modification of political and
social institutions, and comes with generational shifts.
Last, but not least, the South Caucasus is knotted in a web of
territorial, ethnic and identity conflicts, which have to be dealt in
a complex manner. These problems have a new buzz word - protocols. The
desire of the Obama administration to disconnect the Turkish-Armenian
rapprochement from the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict has already
damaged the relations between Azerbaijan and the US and affected
Azerbaijani-Turkish relations, and might have an effect on energy
projects between Azerbaijan and the West. The disappointment in
Azerbaijan regarding the US policy on the Turkish-Armenian protocol is
not only about the prospect of the resolution of the conflict with
Armenia ` it is also about disillusionment with Western democracy
where powerful lobbies like the Armenian Diaspora seriously affect the
countries' decision making.
Moreover, it is about a widening gap between Christians and Muslims,
as almost every Western news agency in its description of the
Armenian-Azerbaijani-Turkish conflicts emphasizes the religious
affiliation of the relevant ethnic groups. However, these conflicts
have no religious connotations.
For two decades Azerbaijan has been conducting a pro-Western foreign
policy both politically and economically. Though subjected to
criticism on human rights, the country's leadership declares that it
envisions a better future but through gradual reformation and
improving economic well being, rejecting foreign recipes and
revolutions.
Over the last decade the country has manifested more balancing acts by
promoting better relations with its immediate neighbours, first of
all, with Russia and Iran. Azerbaijan has concluded important security
and energy agreements with these countries. However, both countries `
Russia and Iran - have close links with Armenia which outweigh their
relations with Azerbaijan. It is no accident that during a trip to the
occupied Azerbaijani territories in April 2010, the new Russian
mediator for the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict Igor Popov discussed with
Armenian separatists the possibility of constructing of a new airport
in Nagorno-Karabakh. The historical Russian-Armenian alliance will not
be affected by Russia's renewed interest in Azerbaijan.
Conclusion
A number of the above-mentioned factors and developments make a
balanced foreign policy a viable choice for regional states. The
experience of post-Soviet countries proved that blatant pro-Western or
anti-Russian stances or vice versa (as the Serbian experience taught
us) does not produce positive results. This is a new reality of the
geopolitics of the South Caucasus.
Fareed Shafee holds master's degrees from the School of History, and
the School of Law of Baku State University, Azerbaijan, and Kennedy
School of Government of the Harvard University, USA. His research
interests include conflict resolution and ethnic studies.
This article first appeared in the Caucasian Review of International
Affairs, Vol. 4(2) - Spring 2010 edition, pp. 184-186
(http://cria-online.org/11_2.html). The Caucasian Review of
International Affairs is a German-based, quarterly peer-reviewed free,
not-for-profit and online academic journal. The article is reprinted
with permission.
May 15 2010
New Geopolitics Of The South Caucasus
Saturday, May 15, 2010
By Fareed Shafee for CRIA
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the South Caucasus region was
opened up for the global market as well as competition among global
powers. The dominance of Russia which had lasted for 200 years was
questioned by new actors, primarily the United States, Turkey and
Iran. The South Caucasus, with its vital links to the Black Sea,
Central Asia and Middle East, and its rich natural resources
(primarily oil and gas in the Caspian Sea) became a complex
battleground aggravated by internal problems such as the war between
Armenia and Azerbaijan due to territorial claims of the former with
regard to the latter's Nagorno-Karabakh region.
While the geopolitical conditions of the 1990s were defined internally
by ethnic conflicts, the creation of statehood, and the transition
from communism to a market economy, external factors were connected
with the arrival of the new powers ` the US, EU, Turkey, Iran on one
side, and efforts by Russia to maintain control on the other. A wave
of `colour revolutions' in 2003-2005 further changed the political
landscape of the regional states and increased the possibility of
ending Russian influence in post-Soviet space. However, despite losing
its influence in the 1990s, Russia, due largely to enormous profits
from oil, gained the momentum to strengthen its position by 2008.
New Geopolitical Factors
The last three years have brought forth a new set of conditions which
is likely to affect the states of the region and their foreign policy
agenda. Domestically the states of the region continued to suffer from
ethnic conflicts, but they managed to build viable statehood, and make
progress on market reforms with
Azerbaijan as the leading economic power. However, internationally,
five major developments have been reshaping the region:
-Georgian-Russian War, 2008
-US-Russian Reset, 2009
-Global Financial Crisis, 2009
-Decolourization of Colour Revolutions, 2010
-Armenian-Turkish Rapprochement and its impact on Azerbaijan-Turkey
and Azerbaijan-US relations, 2009-2010
The Georgian-Russian War had adverse effects on the image of the West
in the region. The verbal support from the US, EU and NATO was not
enough to counter the Russian offensive. Russia showed assertively
that it would resort to force rather than yield its influence in the
South Caucasus. Accordingly, attempting to secure NATO membership by
regional countries has posed a direct threat to their sovereignty and
territorial integrity. Post-Soviet countries realized that Russia is
still a mighty power, and the West is not willing to confront her for
the sake of small post-Soviet states.
Further, the US-Russian `reset' declared by the Obama administration
sent a clear message that relations with Russia are much more
significant for the American administration and its Western allies
than relations with other former communist states. However, many
experts might not agree with that conclusion as they point out that
the West continues to boost its relations with post-Soviet countries
through the EU's new Eastern Partnership initiative, NATO's
Partnership for Peace program and other political and economic
channels, the treatment of US allies like Azerbaijan and Georgia in
regards to the April 2010 Washington Nuclear Security Summit speaks
for itself.
On the other side, Russia's bold foreign policy in its so-called `near
abroad', in various political and economic manifestations, was
seriously damaged by the global financial crisis. The Russian economy
endured great losses which affected its ability to sponsor its allies
or show its influence as an economic power. Thus, the former Soviet
countries appreciated the importance of economic relations with the
West and the need for reform of their economies. Exclusive reliance on
Moscow proved to be shaky. Even the new president of Ukraine Viktor
Yanukovich, a staunch Russian ally, paid his first foreign visit to
Brussels, exhibiting the desire of the new Ukrainian leadership to
move closer to the West in terms of its economic preferences.
The victory of Yanukovich in the latest elections in Ukraine changed
the colour of the 2004 `Orange Revolution' which brought his
predecessor, Viktor Yushchenko, to power. A similar development took
place in Kyrgyzstan, which has recently seen the overthrow of the
victor of the `Tulip Revolution', Kurmanbek_Bakiyev. Though it would
be an overstatement to assert the failure of the `colour revolutions'
- since the elections in Ukraine manifested the democratic changes in
the country - nevertheless, we can speak about, at least, the
decolourization or change of colour of past revolutions. The latest
trend shows that post-Soviet countries cannot be reformed quickly, and
a change is not simply about the removal of one leader for the sake of
another. The process of democracy requires a profound transformation
of all layers of society, the gradual modification of political and
social institutions, and comes with generational shifts.
Last, but not least, the South Caucasus is knotted in a web of
territorial, ethnic and identity conflicts, which have to be dealt in
a complex manner. These problems have a new buzz word - protocols. The
desire of the Obama administration to disconnect the Turkish-Armenian
rapprochement from the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict has already
damaged the relations between Azerbaijan and the US and affected
Azerbaijani-Turkish relations, and might have an effect on energy
projects between Azerbaijan and the West. The disappointment in
Azerbaijan regarding the US policy on the Turkish-Armenian protocol is
not only about the prospect of the resolution of the conflict with
Armenia ` it is also about disillusionment with Western democracy
where powerful lobbies like the Armenian Diaspora seriously affect the
countries' decision making.
Moreover, it is about a widening gap between Christians and Muslims,
as almost every Western news agency in its description of the
Armenian-Azerbaijani-Turkish conflicts emphasizes the religious
affiliation of the relevant ethnic groups. However, these conflicts
have no religious connotations.
For two decades Azerbaijan has been conducting a pro-Western foreign
policy both politically and economically. Though subjected to
criticism on human rights, the country's leadership declares that it
envisions a better future but through gradual reformation and
improving economic well being, rejecting foreign recipes and
revolutions.
Over the last decade the country has manifested more balancing acts by
promoting better relations with its immediate neighbours, first of
all, with Russia and Iran. Azerbaijan has concluded important security
and energy agreements with these countries. However, both countries `
Russia and Iran - have close links with Armenia which outweigh their
relations with Azerbaijan. It is no accident that during a trip to the
occupied Azerbaijani territories in April 2010, the new Russian
mediator for the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict Igor Popov discussed with
Armenian separatists the possibility of constructing of a new airport
in Nagorno-Karabakh. The historical Russian-Armenian alliance will not
be affected by Russia's renewed interest in Azerbaijan.
Conclusion
A number of the above-mentioned factors and developments make a
balanced foreign policy a viable choice for regional states. The
experience of post-Soviet countries proved that blatant pro-Western or
anti-Russian stances or vice versa (as the Serbian experience taught
us) does not produce positive results. This is a new reality of the
geopolitics of the South Caucasus.
Fareed Shafee holds master's degrees from the School of History, and
the School of Law of Baku State University, Azerbaijan, and Kennedy
School of Government of the Harvard University, USA. His research
interests include conflict resolution and ethnic studies.
This article first appeared in the Caucasian Review of International
Affairs, Vol. 4(2) - Spring 2010 edition, pp. 184-186
(http://cria-online.org/11_2.html). The Caucasian Review of
International Affairs is a German-based, quarterly peer-reviewed free,
not-for-profit and online academic journal. The article is reprinted
with permission.