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Global Politician
May 15 2010
Obama Administration Embraces Russia
Prof. Barry Rubin - 5/15/2010
If America's Middle East position collapses in the forest will anyone
hear it? The answer is either: apparently no, or just barely. As I've
predicted Russia is coming back into the region and it is going to
play a very bad role. Moscow is linking up with the emerging Islamist
alliance of Iran, Syria, Hamas, and Hizballah.
Meanwhile, the Obama Administration praises Russia for allegedly
supporting sanctions against Iran. Russian support, at best, consists
of throwing a bucket of fluid over the sanctions' plan to water it
down.
[Don't miss the amazing Russian statement cited at the end of this article.]
Back in the real world--the Middle East, not Washington
discussions--let's begin with Syria. The Obama Administration says it
is going to pull away Syria from Iran, but the two countries are
coming closer together. Syria's open goal is to pull the United States
away from Israel, but meanwhile Syria is finding still another ally to
back its ambitions.
The recent visit of Russia's President Medvedev with a huge entourage
was a major step toward reestablishing the old Soviet-Syria
relationship. There were broad economic talks, including the
possibility of Russia building a nuclear reactor for the Syrian
dictatorship.
Acording to Mikhail Margelov, chairman of the Russian parliamentary
foreign liaison committee, quoted in the Syrian newspaper Tishrin, May
12, the visit, "Is a clear indication to everyone in the Middle East
region and on the regional and international level that Syria was and
will remain a strategic partner to Russia...." This includes a new
round of arms' sales to Syria, which presumably will be paid for
largely by Iran.
Even if the alliance remains limited, it will further encourage Iran
and Syria to be covertly aggressive and hard line while sending still
another signal to moderate Arabs that America is on its way down.
Clearly, Russia's refusal to support more sanctions on Iran in any
serious manner is part of this calculation.
Is it a problem for Russia that it faces internal Islamist terrorism
but is aligning with Islamist forces? No, not at all. Iran has been
careful not to back these revolutionaries in the north Caucasus. Iran
even joins Russia in following a policy of supporting Christian
Armenia against Muslim-majority Azerbaijan. By working with the
Iranians Russia is reducing the possibility that they will support
Islamist rebels against Moscow.
As in so many cases, this strategic factor appears nowhere on the
administration's horizon.
Then there's Medvedev's visit to the newest member of the
anti-American Islamist alliance: Turkey. In a joint statement the two
countries' leaders said that Hamas should be part of any regional
negotiations. Turkish President Abdullah Gul, a hardline Islamist who
was so feared that he had to promise before the last parliamentary
election not to be a candidate for president. His AKP party won and
within a few hours Gul was stepping into that office.
Gul explained in his joint press conference with Medvedev, who said
the same exact thing: "Unfortunately Palestinians have been split into
two... In order to reunite them, you have to speak to both sides.
Hamas won elections in Gaza and cannot be ignored."
What Gul wants--and Medvedev?--is that Hamas dominate the Palestinian
unity arrangement. Consider that two sides are competing for
leadership of a people. One of them is fanatical, extremist,
terrorist, committed to permanent warfare and genocide. The other
isn't exactly wonderful but is, at least at present, somewhere in the
ballpark of being peaceable and reasonable.
So the ideal solution is to put them together and let them reach a
common program? Not exactly. As for the "elected" argument, it is a
matter of public record that Hamas won the election, made a deal for a
coalition government, and then staged a violent coup to seize full
power in the Gaza Strip.
Oh, did I mention that Russia is talking about building nuclear
reactors for both Turkey and Syria?
Russia's bid for renewed power in the Middle East as a rival to U.S.
goals and interests is one more thing that U.S. policy is simply not
prepared to cope with, or even recognize. Will Russia align itself to
a large extent with Iran and Syria to counter U.S. influence in the
region and give itself special access to key trading partners? For if
Moscow teams up with the radical Islamist alliance, especially after
Tehran has nuclear weapons, this is going to worsen considerably an
already gloomy strategic picture for the West.
But on top of all that, Russian Foreign Minister Serge Lavrov made an
incredible statement that should send shock waves through U.S.
policymaking circles. In calling on the United States not to take "any
unilateral step against Iran," Lavrov is trying to restrict American
pressures to what Moscow is willing to accept. In other words, he is
acting as Iran's lawyer to tie America's hands.
Then he added that there were some people in Washington who do not
believe international legislation takes precedence over legislation
passed by the United States. In other words, he is asserting a new
doctrine in which, in effect, the UN is a world government and the
United States has no right to act on its own without approval.
The Obama Administration should act quickly to reject this doctrine.
This is a trap which the administration's own policy has helped to lay
by saying it doesn't believe in strong U.S. leadership. The proposed
precedent would institutionalize that limitation in a way that is
going to be very harmful in future.
Prof. Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International
Affairs (GLORIA) Center, Interdisciplinary university. His new book is
The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan).
You can buy his latest book The Israel-Arab Reader: A Documentary
History of the Middle East Conflict on Amazon.com here.
Reproduced with expressed permission from the Gloria Center
http://globalpolitician.com/26411-foreign- policy-russia
May 15 2010
Obama Administration Embraces Russia
Prof. Barry Rubin - 5/15/2010
If America's Middle East position collapses in the forest will anyone
hear it? The answer is either: apparently no, or just barely. As I've
predicted Russia is coming back into the region and it is going to
play a very bad role. Moscow is linking up with the emerging Islamist
alliance of Iran, Syria, Hamas, and Hizballah.
Meanwhile, the Obama Administration praises Russia for allegedly
supporting sanctions against Iran. Russian support, at best, consists
of throwing a bucket of fluid over the sanctions' plan to water it
down.
[Don't miss the amazing Russian statement cited at the end of this article.]
Back in the real world--the Middle East, not Washington
discussions--let's begin with Syria. The Obama Administration says it
is going to pull away Syria from Iran, but the two countries are
coming closer together. Syria's open goal is to pull the United States
away from Israel, but meanwhile Syria is finding still another ally to
back its ambitions.
The recent visit of Russia's President Medvedev with a huge entourage
was a major step toward reestablishing the old Soviet-Syria
relationship. There were broad economic talks, including the
possibility of Russia building a nuclear reactor for the Syrian
dictatorship.
Acording to Mikhail Margelov, chairman of the Russian parliamentary
foreign liaison committee, quoted in the Syrian newspaper Tishrin, May
12, the visit, "Is a clear indication to everyone in the Middle East
region and on the regional and international level that Syria was and
will remain a strategic partner to Russia...." This includes a new
round of arms' sales to Syria, which presumably will be paid for
largely by Iran.
Even if the alliance remains limited, it will further encourage Iran
and Syria to be covertly aggressive and hard line while sending still
another signal to moderate Arabs that America is on its way down.
Clearly, Russia's refusal to support more sanctions on Iran in any
serious manner is part of this calculation.
Is it a problem for Russia that it faces internal Islamist terrorism
but is aligning with Islamist forces? No, not at all. Iran has been
careful not to back these revolutionaries in the north Caucasus. Iran
even joins Russia in following a policy of supporting Christian
Armenia against Muslim-majority Azerbaijan. By working with the
Iranians Russia is reducing the possibility that they will support
Islamist rebels against Moscow.
As in so many cases, this strategic factor appears nowhere on the
administration's horizon.
Then there's Medvedev's visit to the newest member of the
anti-American Islamist alliance: Turkey. In a joint statement the two
countries' leaders said that Hamas should be part of any regional
negotiations. Turkish President Abdullah Gul, a hardline Islamist who
was so feared that he had to promise before the last parliamentary
election not to be a candidate for president. His AKP party won and
within a few hours Gul was stepping into that office.
Gul explained in his joint press conference with Medvedev, who said
the same exact thing: "Unfortunately Palestinians have been split into
two... In order to reunite them, you have to speak to both sides.
Hamas won elections in Gaza and cannot be ignored."
What Gul wants--and Medvedev?--is that Hamas dominate the Palestinian
unity arrangement. Consider that two sides are competing for
leadership of a people. One of them is fanatical, extremist,
terrorist, committed to permanent warfare and genocide. The other
isn't exactly wonderful but is, at least at present, somewhere in the
ballpark of being peaceable and reasonable.
So the ideal solution is to put them together and let them reach a
common program? Not exactly. As for the "elected" argument, it is a
matter of public record that Hamas won the election, made a deal for a
coalition government, and then staged a violent coup to seize full
power in the Gaza Strip.
Oh, did I mention that Russia is talking about building nuclear
reactors for both Turkey and Syria?
Russia's bid for renewed power in the Middle East as a rival to U.S.
goals and interests is one more thing that U.S. policy is simply not
prepared to cope with, or even recognize. Will Russia align itself to
a large extent with Iran and Syria to counter U.S. influence in the
region and give itself special access to key trading partners? For if
Moscow teams up with the radical Islamist alliance, especially after
Tehran has nuclear weapons, this is going to worsen considerably an
already gloomy strategic picture for the West.
But on top of all that, Russian Foreign Minister Serge Lavrov made an
incredible statement that should send shock waves through U.S.
policymaking circles. In calling on the United States not to take "any
unilateral step against Iran," Lavrov is trying to restrict American
pressures to what Moscow is willing to accept. In other words, he is
acting as Iran's lawyer to tie America's hands.
Then he added that there were some people in Washington who do not
believe international legislation takes precedence over legislation
passed by the United States. In other words, he is asserting a new
doctrine in which, in effect, the UN is a world government and the
United States has no right to act on its own without approval.
The Obama Administration should act quickly to reject this doctrine.
This is a trap which the administration's own policy has helped to lay
by saying it doesn't believe in strong U.S. leadership. The proposed
precedent would institutionalize that limitation in a way that is
going to be very harmful in future.
Prof. Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International
Affairs (GLORIA) Center, Interdisciplinary university. His new book is
The Truth About Syria (Palgrave-Macmillan).
You can buy his latest book The Israel-Arab Reader: A Documentary
History of the Middle East Conflict on Amazon.com here.
Reproduced with expressed permission from the Gloria Center
http://globalpolitician.com/26411-foreign- policy-russia