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ISTANBUL: PM to tackle visas, price of gas and NK on visit to Baku

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  • ISTANBUL: PM to tackle visas, price of gas and NK on visit to Baku

    Today's Zaman
    May 16 2010


    PM ErdoÄ?an to tackle visas, price of gas and Nagorno-Karabakh
    on visit to Baku


    Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoÄ?an's visit to Baku, scheduled
    for today, could bring about positive results in several areas,
    including a natural gas price agreement and a visa deal, but analysts
    believe no developments will take place over the Nagorno-Karabakh
    dispute.

    Although ErdoÄ?an's planned visit could spawn a new era in
    relations between the two nations, no new developments or proposals on
    the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute are expected to take place. Speaking in
    an interview with Sunday's Zaman, Elnur Soltanov, an expert from the
    Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy, said he believes Turkey will reiterate
    its position on Nagorno-Karabakh and that Azerbaijani will likely
    express its satisfaction.

    ErdoÄ?an's last visit took place almost exactly one year ago, on
    May 13, a time of growing anger both within the Azerbaijani government
    and among the public over Turkey's move to reconcile with Armenia, a
    move that was also to include the possible opening of their border,
    closed since 1993 in a sign of solidarity with Azerbaijan following
    Armenia's invasion and subsequent occupation of Azerbaijan's
    Nagorno-Karabakh territory. Opening the border is considered a blow to
    Azerbaijani-led economic sanctions against Armenia over its occupation
    of some 20 percent of its territory. Azerbaijan deliberately seeks to
    orchestrate regional energy and cooperation projects in a way that
    bypasses Armenia and thus deprives the small and poor country
    economically. The policy has produced few results so far.

    Azerbaijani-Turkish relations rest on the solid base of deep
    historical and cultural roots. Being strategic partners, Azerbaijan
    and Turkey pursue their national interests without disregarding each
    other's problems.

    Azerbaijan believes Turkey's inclusion of finding a solution to the
    Nagorno-Karabakh problem as a catalyst in making progress on the
    protocols is the most valuable step for Azerbaijan. This view was
    absent when Turkey started the reconciliation process and became more
    conspicuous after Azerbaijan expressed its disapproval. Azerbaijanis
    regard the speech ErdoÄ?an gave before Azerbaijan's parliament a year
    ago as a plainly worded agreement and an unbreakable pledge to his
    `brethren' in the South Caucasus. He said Turkey would never open its
    border with Armenia unless there were a notable breakthrough in the
    Nagorno-Karabakh problem.

    Evaluating the prime minister's visit to Baku as a symbolic victory
    over Armenian efforts to proclaim April 24 a memorial day
    commemorating Armenians killed during World War I, Soltanov says the
    heaviest repercussions of this were avoided, ones which could have the
    potential to worsen relations between Azerbaijan and Turkey. Because
    they were avoided, a sense of optimism is generating new momentum in
    Turkey and Azerbaijan to resolve some issues of mutual benefit prior
    to this window of opportunity starting to gradually close as next the
    April 24 approaches, he says.

    Recalling Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's visit to Turkey and
    negotiations over a gas deal, Soltanov said that because there is
    little to talk about concerning the South Stream, which is seen as the
    main alternative to Nabucco, Turkey and Azerbaijan have avoided facing
    an additional hurdle in any possible gas deal between them. `There
    will definitely be positive statements regarding Nabucco,' Soltanov
    said. However, the analyst thinks this will have no benefit for the
    Nabucco deal because the fate of the project is not determined by
    Azerbaijani-Turkish cooperation alone.

    Speaking to Sunday's Zaman, Elman Nasirov, the deputy director of the
    Center of Geostrategic Investigation within the Academy of Public
    Administration under the Presidency of the Republic of Azerbaijan,
    said ErdoÄ?an's visit to Baku will likely be remembered for the natural
    gas deal and visa agreement between Azerbaijan and Turkey. The expert
    said lifting visa requirements was delayed because of technical
    problems on the Azerbaijani side and that it is very likely that these
    problems will be solved during this visit.

    Speaking about the visa imbroglio between Azerbaijan and Turkey,
    Soltanov said if Azerbaijan and Turkey are `one nation in two states,'
    then this brotherhood should not lag behind in terms of cooperation.
    `One nation in two states may sound hollow in light of how Turks and
    Russians, definitely two separate nations, seem to be in a much better
    position both regarding mutual trust and concrete mutually beneficial
    deals,' the expert noted. He expects Russian-Turkish deals to create
    extra pressure on the part of Turkey and Azerbaijan to move forward
    and to show that they are capable of doing at least as much regarding
    cooperation. In other words, a visa deal between Azerbaijan and Turkey
    is very likely to be struck.

    Prime Minister ErdoÄ?an and Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan had a
    historic bilateral meeting in Washington on the sidelines of a nuclear
    summit in April to seek ways to rescue the protocols. Azerbaijan was
    not invited to the summit, which further deteriorated Azerbaijan's
    relations with the Obama administration. ErdoÄ?an is also expected to
    brief Azerbaijani President Ä°lham Aliyev about his meeting with
    Sarksyan.

    Considering the Nagorno-Karabakh issue, Nasirov said that it is
    obvious the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute will take center stage at
    discussions to be held during ErdoÄ?an's visit. Turkish-Russian
    multidimensional cooperation will certainly generate interdependence
    between the two countries. `The key to solving the Nagorno-Karabakh
    problem is in the hands of Russia and Turkey. Being part of this
    cooperation which protects the interests of Azerbaijan on all
    platforms could make a solution to the dispute more likely,' Nasirov
    said.



    16 May 2010, Sunday
    LAMIYA ADILGIZI BAKU
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