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A REPUBLICAN VICTORY MAY WIDEN RIFTS BETWEEN TURKEY, US
Today's Zaman
Nov 2 2010
Turkey
House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is likely to
be replaced by Ohio Congressman John Boehner if the Republicans take
the House.
A probable Republican win in today's US congressional elections is
likely to have a significant impact on communication between Ankara and
Washington since key players taking a role in determining US Congress'
approach towards Turkey and maintaining certain balances between the
two capitals will change with such elections results.
Republican dominance in the House of Representatives along with the
Democrat administration in the White House will weaken coordination
between the government and the legislation in the field of foreign
policy. For instance, if the Obama administration wants to block any
congressional move against Turkey, it will have to persuade opposition
party lawmakers. Turkey's vote against further UN sanctions on Iran
and the deterioration in Turkish-Israeli ties have already raised
questions in US Congress on the future of ties with Ankara. Last
month, the US called on Turkey to back NATO's proposed missile defense
system and took steps to counter growing resistance in US Congress
to any future sale of drone aircraft. The atmosphere in Congress,
which is not favorable for Turkey, is not likely to change for the
better after the elections, since members in the new Congress will
prioritize the concerns of Armenian-Americans and Greek-Americans
when shaping their policies.
Turkey's vote against Iran sanctions and the crisis with Israel have
already raised questions in the US Congress on the future of ties
with Ankara. The atmosphere is unlikely to change for the better,
since members in the new Congress will prioritize concerns of
Armenian-Americans and Greek-Americans
Officials in Ankara, in line with foreign policy traditions of the
Turkish capital, have refrained from making any comment on the probable
composition of US Congress after the elections and the results of
this composition in the foreign policy arena. The Israel lobby --
which wields significant influence in both houses of Congress and was
upset with Turkey's harsh rhetoric after Israel's deadly assault on
a Gaza-bound flotilla -- is known to be influential among the more
conservative wing of the Republican Party.
Additionally, the Republicans generally have an ideological line that
is more nationalistic and a pro-war rhetoric that attaches little
importance to concerns of international legitimacy when it comers to
foreign policy issues. Republicans assume a more hawkish policy than
Democrats towards Iran. Such hawkish policies are not in line with
Ankara's peaceful line, which constantly seeks consensus on ways
to solve global disputes.
Pentagon and legislation Republicans are also expected to be
open to suggestions from the Pentagon as they generally pay heed
to the Pentagon's security concerns. The Pentagon, which
attaches importance to military cooperation with Turkey and, thus,
a relationship with the Turkish General Staff, may become one of
the units with the highest capability of lobbying in favor of Turkey
in Congress.
For the issue concerning the pending resolutions for denouncing and
recognizing as a genocide the World War I-era killings of Anatolian
Armenians by Ottoman forces, eyes in Turkey will have to be on
the speaker, the majority group leader and the chair of the foreign
affairs committee at the House of Representatives. A largely symbolic
resolution on the Armenian claims was passed by a House committee in
March, but amid protests from Ankara, the House Democratic leadership
never brought it to the chamber's floor for a vote.
Current Speaker Nancy Pelosi, democrat of California, which has a large
Armenian community, is likely to be replaced by Ohio congressman John
Boehner if republicans take the House. Unlike California, there is no
significant Armenian electorate in Boehner's election district.
During a vote on a similar House committee resolution in autumn
of 2007, Boehner had opposed the resolution on ground of national
interests. At the time, Boehner had called the debate on the resolution
a "debacle" by democratic leaders. "This entire situation
calls their judgment into question," said Boehner.
In previous periods of Republican control of the House
of Representatives, party leaders had blocked attempts to pass
resolutions recognizing the World-War I-era killings of Armenians by
Ottoman Turks as genocide.
Following the elections, republican Eric Cantor of Virginia is widely
expected to become House majority leader in place of democrat Steny
Hoyer of Maryland. Hoyer is sympathetic to the Armenian Diaspora and
is a member of the congressional Armenian caucus, while Cantor is a
pro-Israel politician.
Howard Berman, a congressman from California who serves as the
democratic chairman of the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs, will
lose this post following the elections. Berman's performance as
the committee chairman during the March committee voting was subject
to harsh criticism by Turkish leaders, who accused him of failing
to display a professional stance for pressuring committee members to
vote for the resolution.
Republican congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida, who is
poised to replace Berman, is a pragmatic politician who tries to
get along with different lobbying groups. The maternal grandparents
of Ros-Lehtinen, the first Hispanic woman elected to Congress, were
Sephardic Jews from Turkey who had been active in Cuba's Jewish
community. In March she had voted against the Armenian resolution.
'National interests argument' The whole picture of the day
after today's elections show that politicians who support Armenian
issues like activists will be less likely to be key players in the
House as democrats from California will be eliminated. Nevertheless,
if the US Congress want to hurt Turkey and dare to do so, the Armenian
resolution can still be revitalized.
It is also still possible to have the "national interests
argument" prevail in US Congress at a time when NATO ally Turkey
is overseeing activities that decrease direct or indirect risks for
US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.
For some time the US administration has been having some difficulty
in persuading Congress to approve Turkish requests for weapons sales.
Time will reveal the approaches of the committee members in the new
Congress concerning the same issue. Having committees related to
weapons sales chaired by republicans may lead to relief to a certain
extent, as the Republican party is known to be close to the arms
lobbies based in the United States. Yet, it wouldn't be realistic
to expect republicans -- who heed national security concerns -- to
stay silent if Turkey continues to not be on the same page with some
vital US policies; for example, if it eventually opposes the planned
NATO missile defense system.
The Obama administration, meanwhile, is expected after the elections
to intensify its efforts to put an end to the US Senate's delay
in confirming US President Barack Obama's choice of ambassador to
Turkey. In July, he nominated career diplomat Francis Ricciardone as
ambassador to Turkey. Yet, Ricciardone's long-awaited confirmation
has been delayed since then.
In a bid to reach out to the US Congress, a delegation from the ruling
Justice and Development Party (AK Party) had talks in Washington
in June, while a bureaucratic delegation led by Foreign Ministry
Undersecretary Feridun Sinirlioglu also had talks in the Capitol
Hill in late August. At the time, a group of US lawmakers warned
Turkey that its ties with Washington would suffer if it continued
on what they considered an anti-Israel path, with both some leading
republicans and democrats denouncing NATO ally Turkey for supporting
the convoy of aid ships that tried to run the Israeli blockade of Gaza.
The lawmakers also criticized Turkey's opposition to the UN
Security Council resolution extending punitive sanctions on Iran for
its secretive nuclear program.
From: A. Papazian
Today's Zaman
Nov 2 2010
Turkey
House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is likely to
be replaced by Ohio Congressman John Boehner if the Republicans take
the House.
A probable Republican win in today's US congressional elections is
likely to have a significant impact on communication between Ankara and
Washington since key players taking a role in determining US Congress'
approach towards Turkey and maintaining certain balances between the
two capitals will change with such elections results.
Republican dominance in the House of Representatives along with the
Democrat administration in the White House will weaken coordination
between the government and the legislation in the field of foreign
policy. For instance, if the Obama administration wants to block any
congressional move against Turkey, it will have to persuade opposition
party lawmakers. Turkey's vote against further UN sanctions on Iran
and the deterioration in Turkish-Israeli ties have already raised
questions in US Congress on the future of ties with Ankara. Last
month, the US called on Turkey to back NATO's proposed missile defense
system and took steps to counter growing resistance in US Congress
to any future sale of drone aircraft. The atmosphere in Congress,
which is not favorable for Turkey, is not likely to change for the
better after the elections, since members in the new Congress will
prioritize the concerns of Armenian-Americans and Greek-Americans
when shaping their policies.
Turkey's vote against Iran sanctions and the crisis with Israel have
already raised questions in the US Congress on the future of ties
with Ankara. The atmosphere is unlikely to change for the better,
since members in the new Congress will prioritize concerns of
Armenian-Americans and Greek-Americans
Officials in Ankara, in line with foreign policy traditions of the
Turkish capital, have refrained from making any comment on the probable
composition of US Congress after the elections and the results of
this composition in the foreign policy arena. The Israel lobby --
which wields significant influence in both houses of Congress and was
upset with Turkey's harsh rhetoric after Israel's deadly assault on
a Gaza-bound flotilla -- is known to be influential among the more
conservative wing of the Republican Party.
Additionally, the Republicans generally have an ideological line that
is more nationalistic and a pro-war rhetoric that attaches little
importance to concerns of international legitimacy when it comers to
foreign policy issues. Republicans assume a more hawkish policy than
Democrats towards Iran. Such hawkish policies are not in line with
Ankara's peaceful line, which constantly seeks consensus on ways
to solve global disputes.
Pentagon and legislation Republicans are also expected to be
open to suggestions from the Pentagon as they generally pay heed
to the Pentagon's security concerns. The Pentagon, which
attaches importance to military cooperation with Turkey and, thus,
a relationship with the Turkish General Staff, may become one of
the units with the highest capability of lobbying in favor of Turkey
in Congress.
For the issue concerning the pending resolutions for denouncing and
recognizing as a genocide the World War I-era killings of Anatolian
Armenians by Ottoman forces, eyes in Turkey will have to be on
the speaker, the majority group leader and the chair of the foreign
affairs committee at the House of Representatives. A largely symbolic
resolution on the Armenian claims was passed by a House committee in
March, but amid protests from Ankara, the House Democratic leadership
never brought it to the chamber's floor for a vote.
Current Speaker Nancy Pelosi, democrat of California, which has a large
Armenian community, is likely to be replaced by Ohio congressman John
Boehner if republicans take the House. Unlike California, there is no
significant Armenian electorate in Boehner's election district.
During a vote on a similar House committee resolution in autumn
of 2007, Boehner had opposed the resolution on ground of national
interests. At the time, Boehner had called the debate on the resolution
a "debacle" by democratic leaders. "This entire situation
calls their judgment into question," said Boehner.
In previous periods of Republican control of the House
of Representatives, party leaders had blocked attempts to pass
resolutions recognizing the World-War I-era killings of Armenians by
Ottoman Turks as genocide.
Following the elections, republican Eric Cantor of Virginia is widely
expected to become House majority leader in place of democrat Steny
Hoyer of Maryland. Hoyer is sympathetic to the Armenian Diaspora and
is a member of the congressional Armenian caucus, while Cantor is a
pro-Israel politician.
Howard Berman, a congressman from California who serves as the
democratic chairman of the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs, will
lose this post following the elections. Berman's performance as
the committee chairman during the March committee voting was subject
to harsh criticism by Turkish leaders, who accused him of failing
to display a professional stance for pressuring committee members to
vote for the resolution.
Republican congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida, who is
poised to replace Berman, is a pragmatic politician who tries to
get along with different lobbying groups. The maternal grandparents
of Ros-Lehtinen, the first Hispanic woman elected to Congress, were
Sephardic Jews from Turkey who had been active in Cuba's Jewish
community. In March she had voted against the Armenian resolution.
'National interests argument' The whole picture of the day
after today's elections show that politicians who support Armenian
issues like activists will be less likely to be key players in the
House as democrats from California will be eliminated. Nevertheless,
if the US Congress want to hurt Turkey and dare to do so, the Armenian
resolution can still be revitalized.
It is also still possible to have the "national interests
argument" prevail in US Congress at a time when NATO ally Turkey
is overseeing activities that decrease direct or indirect risks for
US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.
For some time the US administration has been having some difficulty
in persuading Congress to approve Turkish requests for weapons sales.
Time will reveal the approaches of the committee members in the new
Congress concerning the same issue. Having committees related to
weapons sales chaired by republicans may lead to relief to a certain
extent, as the Republican party is known to be close to the arms
lobbies based in the United States. Yet, it wouldn't be realistic
to expect republicans -- who heed national security concerns -- to
stay silent if Turkey continues to not be on the same page with some
vital US policies; for example, if it eventually opposes the planned
NATO missile defense system.
The Obama administration, meanwhile, is expected after the elections
to intensify its efforts to put an end to the US Senate's delay
in confirming US President Barack Obama's choice of ambassador to
Turkey. In July, he nominated career diplomat Francis Ricciardone as
ambassador to Turkey. Yet, Ricciardone's long-awaited confirmation
has been delayed since then.
In a bid to reach out to the US Congress, a delegation from the ruling
Justice and Development Party (AK Party) had talks in Washington
in June, while a bureaucratic delegation led by Foreign Ministry
Undersecretary Feridun Sinirlioglu also had talks in the Capitol
Hill in late August. At the time, a group of US lawmakers warned
Turkey that its ties with Washington would suffer if it continued
on what they considered an anti-Israel path, with both some leading
republicans and democrats denouncing NATO ally Turkey for supporting
the convoy of aid ships that tried to run the Israeli blockade of Gaza.
The lawmakers also criticized Turkey's opposition to the UN
Security Council resolution extending punitive sanctions on Iran for
its secretive nuclear program.
From: A. Papazian