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NON-DECLARATIVE MESSAGES
168 Zham
Oct 28 2010
Armenia
The Armenian, Azerbaijani and Russian presidents held a tripartite
meeting on 27 October in Astrakhan [Russia] while the 11th anniversary
of the criminal act of 27 October 1999 [terrorist attack in the
Armenian parliament] was being commemorated in Armenia.
As a result of the meeting, a joint declaration was approved, Russian
President Dmitriy Medvedev announced. "We are talking about a special
declaration on measures aimed at building confidence. The document
envisages the exchange of prisoners of war and the return of bodies
of the dead," Medvedev said, classifying the meeting as one of a
"humanitarian nature".
"Reconfirming the provisions of the 2 November 2008 joint
statement signed in Moscow, the presidents underscored that the
diplomatic-political settlement of the conflict requires further
steps aimed at strengthening the ceasefire regime and confidence in
the military sphere," the declaration said.
The approval of this document, is, of course, positive, taking into
consideration the repeated cases of killing of Armenian soldiers in
recent months, including on 26 October - the day before the meeting.
Although Medvedev expressed the hope that Armenia and Azerbaijan may
agree on the general principles of the Nagornyy Karabakh settlement
during the OSCE summit to be held in December, the declaration
approved on 27 October resembles not so much a humanitarian document,
as a document on the arrangements regarding the "technical terms"
of a war. That is the sides are guided by the hypothesis that there
will be prisoners of war who should be exchanged or casualties whose
bodies should be returned.
It is not difficult to guess from Medvedev's 27 October statements
that the Russian Federation is, at least in public, interested in a
Nagornyy Karabakh settlement in the future. That is it wants to settle
the issue in a way beneficial for itself. This means a decision not
beneficial for the West, and for the USA specifically.
By a "surprising coincidence" a few hours prior to the 27 October
meeting a YouTube video, shot with a candid camera, in which US Vice
President Joe Biden answers a comment about the Obama administration's
failure to carry out its promises to recognize the Armenian Genocide,
by saying that Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan asked him in a phone
conversation not to put pressure on Turkey as long as the talks are
under way. This sort of tender terminology is called messages.
Meanwhile, although the Armenian presidential spokesman has hurried
to refute the words ascribed to Biden, neither the US Department of
State nor the US embassy in Armenia had issued any clarification
on what happened as of 27 October. So this may be considered the
second message to the Armenian authorities, specifically in regard
of the Karabakh settlement, after the case of Pzo [nickname of Armen
Ghazaryan, a man of Armenian origin who is suspected of involvement
in insurance fraud in the USA].
In other words if this video clip did not exist, it is possible that
Medvedev's enthusiasm would have been greater. In particular, the
opening of a memorial to [former Azerbaijani President] Heydar Aliyev
in Astrakhan on 27 October shows that Russia did everything to get
Azerbaijan's approval - in the expectation of the signature of some
document given the supposed consent of Armenia. It only remains for
us to wait for new messages, more specifically, hints, in the future.
From: A. Papazian
168 Zham
Oct 28 2010
Armenia
The Armenian, Azerbaijani and Russian presidents held a tripartite
meeting on 27 October in Astrakhan [Russia] while the 11th anniversary
of the criminal act of 27 October 1999 [terrorist attack in the
Armenian parliament] was being commemorated in Armenia.
As a result of the meeting, a joint declaration was approved, Russian
President Dmitriy Medvedev announced. "We are talking about a special
declaration on measures aimed at building confidence. The document
envisages the exchange of prisoners of war and the return of bodies
of the dead," Medvedev said, classifying the meeting as one of a
"humanitarian nature".
"Reconfirming the provisions of the 2 November 2008 joint
statement signed in Moscow, the presidents underscored that the
diplomatic-political settlement of the conflict requires further
steps aimed at strengthening the ceasefire regime and confidence in
the military sphere," the declaration said.
The approval of this document, is, of course, positive, taking into
consideration the repeated cases of killing of Armenian soldiers in
recent months, including on 26 October - the day before the meeting.
Although Medvedev expressed the hope that Armenia and Azerbaijan may
agree on the general principles of the Nagornyy Karabakh settlement
during the OSCE summit to be held in December, the declaration
approved on 27 October resembles not so much a humanitarian document,
as a document on the arrangements regarding the "technical terms"
of a war. That is the sides are guided by the hypothesis that there
will be prisoners of war who should be exchanged or casualties whose
bodies should be returned.
It is not difficult to guess from Medvedev's 27 October statements
that the Russian Federation is, at least in public, interested in a
Nagornyy Karabakh settlement in the future. That is it wants to settle
the issue in a way beneficial for itself. This means a decision not
beneficial for the West, and for the USA specifically.
By a "surprising coincidence" a few hours prior to the 27 October
meeting a YouTube video, shot with a candid camera, in which US Vice
President Joe Biden answers a comment about the Obama administration's
failure to carry out its promises to recognize the Armenian Genocide,
by saying that Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan asked him in a phone
conversation not to put pressure on Turkey as long as the talks are
under way. This sort of tender terminology is called messages.
Meanwhile, although the Armenian presidential spokesman has hurried
to refute the words ascribed to Biden, neither the US Department of
State nor the US embassy in Armenia had issued any clarification
on what happened as of 27 October. So this may be considered the
second message to the Armenian authorities, specifically in regard
of the Karabakh settlement, after the case of Pzo [nickname of Armen
Ghazaryan, a man of Armenian origin who is suspected of involvement
in insurance fraud in the USA].
In other words if this video clip did not exist, it is possible that
Medvedev's enthusiasm would have been greater. In particular, the
opening of a memorial to [former Azerbaijani President] Heydar Aliyev
in Astrakhan on 27 October shows that Russia did everything to get
Azerbaijan's approval - in the expectation of the signature of some
document given the supposed consent of Armenia. It only remains for
us to wait for new messages, more specifically, hints, in the future.
From: A. Papazian