Tweet
TURKEY NO LONGER FEARS RUSSIAN MILITARY STRENGTH
by Andy Potts
Moscow News
http://themoscownews.com/politics/20101108/188183808.html?referfrommn
Nov 8 2010
Russia is no longer seen as a threat to Turkey - but debate rages
over whether this is a triumph for Moscow's diplomacy or a humiliating
comedown for the nation's armed forces.
Ankara has removed Russia from its so-called "Red Book" of potentially
hostile states, along with neighbours Greece and Armenia and the
Middle East trio of Syria, Iran and Iraq. Meanwhile Israel is added
to the hit list after the storm over the summer "Freedom Flotilla"
which set sail from Turkey but was blocked from landing in Palestine
by Israeli forces.
But it's Russia's exclusion which has prompted most conversation.
All friends together
The official view is that Russia's active role in trying to mediate
the on-going conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan makes Moscow a
valuable ally in promoting stability in the volatile trans-Caucasus.
The document highlights warmer relations under the guidance of Turkish
PM Tayyip Erdogan, which involves closer economic ties as well as
concluding the Nagorno-Karabakh war.
And strategists in Ankara conclude that "the threat of communism has
finally lifted", according to gzt.ru.
A bear without claws
But a more pragmatic stance offers less cause for Russia to celebrate,
according to military analyst Andrei Areshev, deputy director of the
Strategic Cultural Foundation.
He suggests Turkey is simply no longer all that concerned about the
muscle of its giant historic rival on the other side of the Black Sea.
"Among the expert community it has been assumed that Turkey will
remove Russia from the list of potential threats after a comparative
analysis of the capabilities of the Russian and Turkish armies,"
Areshev told gzt.ru.
"Turkey has a strong military, while the combat capability of
the Russian army is in a permanent state of reform, which raises
questions."
Future prospects
Whether the latest signals from Turkey represent growing enthusiasm
for Moscow's interests or dwindling respect for Russia's military
could be less significant than what happens next.
Both countries have a shared interest in gas and oil transit to
Europe, with Turkey currently signed up to the Nabucco pipeline
scheme which enables the EU to access central Asian resources while
bypassing Russia.
If Russia can use improved relationships with Ankara to slow that
scheme it will boost the prospects of Gazprom's treasured South
Stream project becoming the market leader in gas transit to the
Balkans and beyond.
Meanwhile Russian strategists may hope that they can use a less hostile
Turkey as a means of easing tensions with NATO in south-eastern Europe.
The western alliance's efforts to expand in that region have regularly
alarmed Russia, which fears "encirclement" by US and European forces
on its western borders, particularly if the likes of Ukraine and
Georgia join the NATO club.
From: A. Papazian
by Andy Potts
Moscow News
http://themoscownews.com/politics/20101108/188183808.html?referfrommn
Nov 8 2010
Russia is no longer seen as a threat to Turkey - but debate rages
over whether this is a triumph for Moscow's diplomacy or a humiliating
comedown for the nation's armed forces.
Ankara has removed Russia from its so-called "Red Book" of potentially
hostile states, along with neighbours Greece and Armenia and the
Middle East trio of Syria, Iran and Iraq. Meanwhile Israel is added
to the hit list after the storm over the summer "Freedom Flotilla"
which set sail from Turkey but was blocked from landing in Palestine
by Israeli forces.
But it's Russia's exclusion which has prompted most conversation.
All friends together
The official view is that Russia's active role in trying to mediate
the on-going conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan makes Moscow a
valuable ally in promoting stability in the volatile trans-Caucasus.
The document highlights warmer relations under the guidance of Turkish
PM Tayyip Erdogan, which involves closer economic ties as well as
concluding the Nagorno-Karabakh war.
And strategists in Ankara conclude that "the threat of communism has
finally lifted", according to gzt.ru.
A bear without claws
But a more pragmatic stance offers less cause for Russia to celebrate,
according to military analyst Andrei Areshev, deputy director of the
Strategic Cultural Foundation.
He suggests Turkey is simply no longer all that concerned about the
muscle of its giant historic rival on the other side of the Black Sea.
"Among the expert community it has been assumed that Turkey will
remove Russia from the list of potential threats after a comparative
analysis of the capabilities of the Russian and Turkish armies,"
Areshev told gzt.ru.
"Turkey has a strong military, while the combat capability of
the Russian army is in a permanent state of reform, which raises
questions."
Future prospects
Whether the latest signals from Turkey represent growing enthusiasm
for Moscow's interests or dwindling respect for Russia's military
could be less significant than what happens next.
Both countries have a shared interest in gas and oil transit to
Europe, with Turkey currently signed up to the Nabucco pipeline
scheme which enables the EU to access central Asian resources while
bypassing Russia.
If Russia can use improved relationships with Ankara to slow that
scheme it will boost the prospects of Gazprom's treasured South
Stream project becoming the market leader in gas transit to the
Balkans and beyond.
Meanwhile Russian strategists may hope that they can use a less hostile
Turkey as a means of easing tensions with NATO in south-eastern Europe.
The western alliance's efforts to expand in that region have regularly
alarmed Russia, which fears "encirclement" by US and European forces
on its western borders, particularly if the likes of Ukraine and
Georgia join the NATO club.
From: A. Papazian