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SUPERPOWERS 'WON'T LET IRAN GET INVOLVED' IN KARABAKH RESOLUTION
news.az
Nov 25 2010
Azerbaijan
News.Az interviews Vadim Mukhanov, senior researcher at the Moscow
State Institute of Foreign Relations' (MGIMO's) Caucasus Studies
Centre.
What are the main threats to security in the Caspian region?
The Caspian region is quite explosive and has several serious threats.
First, it is the Karabakh conflict; second, it is the related arms
race involving the opposing parties; third, it is the outstanding
issues on the division of the Caspian (the unsettled relations of
some coastline states may result in a serious conflict, especially
if we remember several situations that threaten security); fourth,
the campaign by a number of leading world players to transform Iran
into a rogue state is also dangerous and has a negative impact on
the situation in the region.
The Iranian and Russian leaders said at the Caspian summit that states
outside the region should not interfere in the affairs of the littoral
states. How likely is such interference, in particular, by the US?
I think this remark is quite fair. The summits of the Caspian states
and most bilateral meetings just prove it, since they demonstrate
great mutual understanding and trust between the senior officials.
There is no need for any mediator or arbiter in the Caspian region; the
interference of superpowers is not always useful in the resolution of
disputed regional issues, as the lobbying of interests often damages
the region.
How do you explain Russia's current activeness on a Karabakh
resolution, compared to the passivity of the other two Minsk Group
mediators - the United States and France?
Russia was initially leading this process. It is deeply interested
in peace and tranquility in the Caucasus, since it is nearby and is
also a Caucasus state, unlike the other countries you mentioned. The
latter are engaged in the resolution of their own painful problems. For
example, France is hit by a serious internal political crisis, the
economic situation is quite unstable and there are great difficulties
inside the EU. Today the priority for the United States is the
resolution of the Afghan and Iraqi issues, as well as the domestic
economic situation. For the current administration the Caucasus is
not priority number one or two.
Russia differs from all possible mediators and represents the best
possible option. It has rich experience in the region and deep
knowledge of it. It has close ties with both Armenia and Azerbaijan
and is interested in deepening and strengthening them, for which
it is necessary to raise the security level. Large Azerbaijani and
Armenian diasporas (whose number amounts to seven-digit figures)
live in Russia and most of them are citizens of Russia. Undoubtedly,
Russia, which is a leading world players and is historically situated
nearby, on the other side of the mountains, should use its influence,
experience and potential to influence the resolution and lead this
process. This can be seen in recent events.
Iran recently expressed the wish to mediate a Karabakh settlement. How
do you explain this interest and can this participation be productive?
Iran~Rs interest is extremely pragmatic and lies in distracting the
attention of the world community from the resolution of the Iranian
problem. The Karabakh conflict is the best way to do this. Iran
is hardly likely to take part in the resolution. Its proposal is
unrealistic, as none of the leading world players will allow it
there, though Iran is interested in the resolution of the conflict
and unblocking Armenia, which can become a new transit corridor for it.
Do you think the problems of the Caspian region, including conflicts,
should be settled by regional countries without external interference?
This is fair. As for the Karabakh conflict, the recent meetings with
participation of the presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia
prove that such a trilateral format without mediators from outside
the region can bring the desired result.
From: A. Papazian
news.az
Nov 25 2010
Azerbaijan
News.Az interviews Vadim Mukhanov, senior researcher at the Moscow
State Institute of Foreign Relations' (MGIMO's) Caucasus Studies
Centre.
What are the main threats to security in the Caspian region?
The Caspian region is quite explosive and has several serious threats.
First, it is the Karabakh conflict; second, it is the related arms
race involving the opposing parties; third, it is the outstanding
issues on the division of the Caspian (the unsettled relations of
some coastline states may result in a serious conflict, especially
if we remember several situations that threaten security); fourth,
the campaign by a number of leading world players to transform Iran
into a rogue state is also dangerous and has a negative impact on
the situation in the region.
The Iranian and Russian leaders said at the Caspian summit that states
outside the region should not interfere in the affairs of the littoral
states. How likely is such interference, in particular, by the US?
I think this remark is quite fair. The summits of the Caspian states
and most bilateral meetings just prove it, since they demonstrate
great mutual understanding and trust between the senior officials.
There is no need for any mediator or arbiter in the Caspian region; the
interference of superpowers is not always useful in the resolution of
disputed regional issues, as the lobbying of interests often damages
the region.
How do you explain Russia's current activeness on a Karabakh
resolution, compared to the passivity of the other two Minsk Group
mediators - the United States and France?
Russia was initially leading this process. It is deeply interested
in peace and tranquility in the Caucasus, since it is nearby and is
also a Caucasus state, unlike the other countries you mentioned. The
latter are engaged in the resolution of their own painful problems. For
example, France is hit by a serious internal political crisis, the
economic situation is quite unstable and there are great difficulties
inside the EU. Today the priority for the United States is the
resolution of the Afghan and Iraqi issues, as well as the domestic
economic situation. For the current administration the Caucasus is
not priority number one or two.
Russia differs from all possible mediators and represents the best
possible option. It has rich experience in the region and deep
knowledge of it. It has close ties with both Armenia and Azerbaijan
and is interested in deepening and strengthening them, for which
it is necessary to raise the security level. Large Azerbaijani and
Armenian diasporas (whose number amounts to seven-digit figures)
live in Russia and most of them are citizens of Russia. Undoubtedly,
Russia, which is a leading world players and is historically situated
nearby, on the other side of the mountains, should use its influence,
experience and potential to influence the resolution and lead this
process. This can be seen in recent events.
Iran recently expressed the wish to mediate a Karabakh settlement. How
do you explain this interest and can this participation be productive?
Iran~Rs interest is extremely pragmatic and lies in distracting the
attention of the world community from the resolution of the Iranian
problem. The Karabakh conflict is the best way to do this. Iran
is hardly likely to take part in the resolution. Its proposal is
unrealistic, as none of the leading world players will allow it
there, though Iran is interested in the resolution of the conflict
and unblocking Armenia, which can become a new transit corridor for it.
Do you think the problems of the Caspian region, including conflicts,
should be settled by regional countries without external interference?
This is fair. As for the Karabakh conflict, the recent meetings with
participation of the presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia
prove that such a trilateral format without mediators from outside
the region can bring the desired result.
From: A. Papazian