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KARABAKH TRAP FOR MOSCOW
Lragir.am
25 Nov 10
The feeling is that Armenia is quietly pushed into the arms of Russia
to make Moscow, as in the South Ossetian war, intervene in the Karabakh
conflict, and then finally push it out of the South Caucasus.
The statement by the Director General of the American-Israeli
analytical service STRATFOR George Freedman was not accidental about
the fact that the most important thing for Turkey in its relations
with Armenia should not be the Karabakh settlement but the removal
of the military base from Armenia.
This task, which seems utopist under the current conditions, can be
solved only if Russia interferes in the Karabakh conflict. This task
was solved by Georgia, which reached the withdrawal of Russian troops,
though for this, it was constrained to get Russia as its enemy.
It is already evident that the U.S. and France, refuting any activeness
and offering to Moscow the initiative of the Karabakh settlement,
left Russia "off side". In this situation, as it is known, goal is not
counted. So, it is favorable for Russia not to score but to retreat.
But Russia apparently does not intend to retreat, and will, as
always, go through. This is evidenced by the forced efforts to
restore lost influence on the Armenian society through the creation of
'Rossotrudnichestvo" /Russian cooperation/, lobbying for amendments to
the law on language, speeches of a number of political analysts that
Russia is responsible for the situation in Armenia, through the media
provocation and Serge Sargsyan's coercion to swear eternal allegiance
to Russia after each meeting in Moscow.
Against this background, it is not ruled out that at the upcoming
summit, Russia will propose some scheme of settlement in which the
key role will be attributed to it. And if the West is really preparing
a Karabakh trap for Russia in Astana, it will not oppose to the fact
that Russia is fully involved in the Karabakh conflict.
It is not excluded that everything will end in signing a regular
humanitarian document, like the one in Astrakhan, in accord with which,
Armenia and Azerbaijan exchanged bodies and POWs. It is possible
that this time the agreement will regard the removal of snipers. But
Russia will not be Russia, if it does not try to make its troops'
deployment in Karabakh. Perhaps, from fear that he will have to sign
such a document, Serge Sargsyan will not leave for Astana, which is
not ruled out even by members of his party.
From: A. Papazian
Lragir.am
25 Nov 10
The feeling is that Armenia is quietly pushed into the arms of Russia
to make Moscow, as in the South Ossetian war, intervene in the Karabakh
conflict, and then finally push it out of the South Caucasus.
The statement by the Director General of the American-Israeli
analytical service STRATFOR George Freedman was not accidental about
the fact that the most important thing for Turkey in its relations
with Armenia should not be the Karabakh settlement but the removal
of the military base from Armenia.
This task, which seems utopist under the current conditions, can be
solved only if Russia interferes in the Karabakh conflict. This task
was solved by Georgia, which reached the withdrawal of Russian troops,
though for this, it was constrained to get Russia as its enemy.
It is already evident that the U.S. and France, refuting any activeness
and offering to Moscow the initiative of the Karabakh settlement,
left Russia "off side". In this situation, as it is known, goal is not
counted. So, it is favorable for Russia not to score but to retreat.
But Russia apparently does not intend to retreat, and will, as
always, go through. This is evidenced by the forced efforts to
restore lost influence on the Armenian society through the creation of
'Rossotrudnichestvo" /Russian cooperation/, lobbying for amendments to
the law on language, speeches of a number of political analysts that
Russia is responsible for the situation in Armenia, through the media
provocation and Serge Sargsyan's coercion to swear eternal allegiance
to Russia after each meeting in Moscow.
Against this background, it is not ruled out that at the upcoming
summit, Russia will propose some scheme of settlement in which the
key role will be attributed to it. And if the West is really preparing
a Karabakh trap for Russia in Astana, it will not oppose to the fact
that Russia is fully involved in the Karabakh conflict.
It is not excluded that everything will end in signing a regular
humanitarian document, like the one in Astrakhan, in accord with which,
Armenia and Azerbaijan exchanged bodies and POWs. It is possible
that this time the agreement will regard the removal of snipers. But
Russia will not be Russia, if it does not try to make its troops'
deployment in Karabakh. Perhaps, from fear that he will have to sign
such a document, Serge Sargsyan will not leave for Astana, which is
not ruled out even by members of his party.
From: A. Papazian