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BAKU: "OSCE Summit In Astana Hardly To Mark Breakthrough In Nagorno-

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  • BAKU: "OSCE Summit In Astana Hardly To Mark Breakthrough In Nagorno-

    "OSCE SUMMIT IN ASTANA HARDLY TO MARK BREAKTHROUGH IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT"

    Today
    http://www.today.az/news/politics/75006.html
    Oct 14 2010
    Azerbaijan

    It does not worth to expect from the Astana summit in December certain
    decisions, that will change the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh,
    Alexei Vlasov, deputy dean of the Faculty of History at the Moscow
    State University, a member of Trend Expert Council, said.

    "Kanat Saudabayev, the OSCE chairman in-office, has repeatedly
    attempted to advance the idea of a road map of conflict settlement
    on the Caucasus. However, Kazakhstan's initiative does not have real
    outcomes," Vlasov, editor-in-chief of analytical information portal
    Vestnik Kavkaza (Bulletin of the Caucasus), told Trend journalists
    at a meeting today.

    He said the OSCE summit in Astana will focus on economic security,
    national minorities and the OSCE reform, aimed at a more dynamic and
    effective response of the organization to new risks and challenges.

    "It would be a great optimism to expect new breakthrough solutions
    to Nagorno-Karabakh to be prepared for the summit," Vlasov said.

    Vlasov said one can expect the situation to change in 2011 under
    certain circumstances.

    Vlasov said the mediators of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement
    understand that public discontent is growing in Azerbaijan. The talks
    to return back territories adjoining Nagorno-Karabakh will be resumed
    in 2011.

    "Time will tell whether the rumors will be justified and whether
    the mediators will convince Yerevan that such steps are necessary,"
    Vlasov said.

    He said that the mediators, in particular Russia, and foreign players
    such as Turkey, are solving the dilemma whether to move from stalemate
    in the Nagorno-Karabakh or to leave everything at the level of virtual
    challenge. Much depends on how the situation will evolve over Iran,
    political analyst said.

    "If the U.S. decides to solve Iran's problem in 2011, the issue of
    Nagorno-Karabakh will remain. If everything is limited by diplomatic
    and economic pressure on Iran and world powers wish to demonstrate that
    they are able to achieve settlement of the problems through the talks,
    then, perhaps, we will see concessions from Yerevan by late 2011,"
    Vlasov said.

    He said that it does not worth exaggerating the influence of Turkey
    on the conflict, given the internal divisions in the country.

    "Turkish authorities have not determined their foreign policy yet,
    therefore, the Armenian issue was inscribed for Ankara in a more
    general context of Turkey's role in Central Asia, the Caucasus and
    the Caspian Sea in the nearest future. Turkey still prefers to use
    tactical decisions without declaring its strategy. Therefore, the
    possibilities to put pressure on Armenia are limited," he said.

    Vlasov said that it is necessary to understand that it does not worth
    to expect changes in the structure and format of Nagorno-Karabakh talks
    in the nearest future because it will take much time and it will turn
    out that specific decisions are postponed for an indefinite period.




    From: A. Papazian
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