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  • A new Turkey is redefining itself

    A new Turkey is redefining itself

    Trudy Rubin, The Philadelphia Inquirer

    11-29-2010

    ISTANBUL All during the Cold War, Turkey was the NATO country the United
    States took for granted, a secular Muslim state that straddled Europe
    and Asia and defended a long border with the Soviet Union.

    Then communism collapsed, and Washington thought it had a new role for
    Turkey: With the election of an Islamic-oriented government in 2002, it
    could become the model of moderate Muslim democracy. But after several
    days in Ankara and Istanbul, I saw that this country is no longer ready
    to play a role designed by others.

    Welcome to the new Turkey, which is changing so rapidly that smart
    people here tell me they don know where their country is headed abroad
    or at home.

    When it comes to Turkey foreign policy, the debate over whether Turkey
    has shifted its axis from West to East misses the point, says veteran
    journalist Sami Kohen. He says the message from Ankara is: the staunch
    supporter of NATO, the loyal ally, we no longer in the Cold War. Turkey
    is getting strong and can build its own axis. Don take Turkey for
    granted anymore.

    Indeed, Ibrahim Kalin, foreign policy adviser to Prime Minister Recep
    Tayyip Erdogan, told me that no longer feels it necessary to define
    itself in oppositional way, linked to one country at the expense of
    another. People see no contradiction between membership in the European
    Union and increasing trade with Russia, the Middle East and Central
    Asia.

    economic interests compel us to have better relations with all our
    neighbors, he said.

    No question Turkey efforts to expand its foreign trade and attract new
    sources of foreign investment are part of what drives its new interest
    in its Arab neighbors and Iran. Turkey is a country that is booming
    economically while Western Europe sags; its once-backward heartland
    boasts 15 so-called Anatolian , or growing industrial cities. The
    middle-class businessmen of Anatolia, a region of Turkey, are more
    comfortable, and better placed, to export to the Middle East and North
    Africa than to Europe.

    Turkey dynamic construction sector which has rebuilt northern Iraq and
    is a force all over the region had high hopes of getting huge contracts
    in Iran, and Erdogan has called for increasing trade with Tehran
    fivefold. That has proved far more difficult than expected, and Iran has
    so far been skittish about letting the Turks in.

    But Turkey aspirations for developing its own foreign policy axis go far
    beyond economic expansion. How far is a matter of debate inside Turkey
    and the West.

    Does Erdogan, who has traveled extensively to Muslim countries in the
    Middle East and Asia, and receives adulation from Arab publics, harbor
    dreams of becoming the pre-eminent Sunni Muslim political leader? He
    vehemently denied that to me in an interview, saying, have an identity
    as the prime minister of the Republic of Turkey.

    Kalin describes Erdogan role as most powerful leader in Turkey in a long
    time who has become a regional leader by virtue of geography, not to
    score points with the Arab street. Every major issue in the region
    affects stability of the region, and therefore we pay attention.

    The unspoken premise is that the one-time guarantor of Mideast regional
    stability the United States is fading from the picture. is still popular
    here, Kalin said, most Turks think he can deliver. What he didn say, but
    I heard everywhere, was that Turks think Obama has used up his political
    capital and his Mideast peace policy is a failure. Turks of every
    political persuasion are also scornful of the mess made in Iraq by the
    Bush administration.

    So given the American fade, Turkey foreign minister, Ahmet Davotoglu,
    has concluded that the United States is but one pole of many, and Ankara
    will pursue better relations with China, Russia, Iran and its Arab
    neighbors. Perhaps the most startling indication so far of this shift
    was the recent joint air exercise that Turkey held with China, which
    raised questions about Ankara commitment to NATO, and whether NATO
    security was being breached.

    And Davotoglu has famously scripted a foreign policy aimed at having
    zero enemies on Turkey borders, while undertaking ambitious efforts at
    peacemaking in the region. So far most though not all of these efforts
    have come to naught.

    Ankara has vastly improved its relations with Iraqi Kurds, and its ties
    with Syria, with whom it nearly went to war a decade ago. But the
    Erdogan government efforts to reconcile with Armenia tanked, as did
    efforts to broker talks between Israel and Syria, which came apart when
    Israel invaded Gaza in 2009.

    After a week in this fascinating country, the question that lingers is
    whether the Erdogan government can juggle its multiple ambitions,
    maintaining links with the West and NATO while showing its independence
    of both and occasionally spitting in their eyes. And whether Erdogan can
    woo the Iranians without alienating the Arabs, or promote regional
    stability without rapprochement with Israel.

    No one can be certain where Ankara foreign policy is headed, perhaps not
    even the Erdogan government, just as it hard to predict the outcome of
    the deepening secular-religious split in the country. All one can say
    with certainty is that this is a country to be watched.

    Trudy Rubin is a columnist and editorial board member for The
    Philadelphia Inquirer, P.O. Box 8263, Philadelphia, PA 19101, or by
    e-mail at [email protected].




    From: A. Papazian
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