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Global Insight
October 29, 2010
Armenian Economic Recovery Slackens Further in September
BYLINE: Ralf Wiegert
According to the Armenian National Statistical Service, Armenian GDP
in January-September edged up by 2.8% year-on-year (y/y), marking yet
another deceleration following growth of 3.1% y/y in January-August.
These cumulative, year-to-date figures signal that Armenia's economy
has been slowing during the third quarter and possibly even shrank in
September in annual comparison. Indeed, GDP still advanced by 6.7% on
the year in the first half of 2010, being supported by base effects
which are wearing off in the second half of the year.
Although no further details have been provided by the Armenian
Statistical Office, it is quite plausible that agriculture was among
the prime factors behind the weak performance in the third quarter.
Indeed, with the influence of agriculture on GDP weakening again in
the final quarter, the Armenian central bank maintains that annual GDP
growth within the range of 2.4-2.7% is possible. However, goods
exports have remained another weak spot of the Armenian economy.
Statistics Armenia noted that although exports surged by 43.9% in
January-September, and imports rose by 19.2% at the same time, the
trade balance widened further. It hit almost US$2 billion in the year
to date, with exports covering slightly more than a quarter of total
goods imports.
Significance:The slowdown of annual growth rates in the third quarter
is partly due to base effects, but also reflects the weakness of the
Armenian recovery in general. Given the narrow export base, and the
high dependence of remittances and other transfers from abroad,
Armenia is barely able to get back on its feet on its own after the
savage recession in 2009. Modest growth is possible, but the level of
economic activity remains far below the pre-crisis period.
From: A. Papazian
October 29, 2010
Armenian Economic Recovery Slackens Further in September
BYLINE: Ralf Wiegert
According to the Armenian National Statistical Service, Armenian GDP
in January-September edged up by 2.8% year-on-year (y/y), marking yet
another deceleration following growth of 3.1% y/y in January-August.
These cumulative, year-to-date figures signal that Armenia's economy
has been slowing during the third quarter and possibly even shrank in
September in annual comparison. Indeed, GDP still advanced by 6.7% on
the year in the first half of 2010, being supported by base effects
which are wearing off in the second half of the year.
Although no further details have been provided by the Armenian
Statistical Office, it is quite plausible that agriculture was among
the prime factors behind the weak performance in the third quarter.
Indeed, with the influence of agriculture on GDP weakening again in
the final quarter, the Armenian central bank maintains that annual GDP
growth within the range of 2.4-2.7% is possible. However, goods
exports have remained another weak spot of the Armenian economy.
Statistics Armenia noted that although exports surged by 43.9% in
January-September, and imports rose by 19.2% at the same time, the
trade balance widened further. It hit almost US$2 billion in the year
to date, with exports covering slightly more than a quarter of total
goods imports.
Significance:The slowdown of annual growth rates in the third quarter
is partly due to base effects, but also reflects the weakness of the
Armenian recovery in general. Given the narrow export base, and the
high dependence of remittances and other transfers from abroad,
Armenia is barely able to get back on its feet on its own after the
savage recession in 2009. Modest growth is possible, but the level of
economic activity remains far below the pre-crisis period.
From: A. Papazian