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RUSSIAN ANALYST ON WHAT STANCE RUSSIA, U.S. AND EUROPE WILL TAKE AT EARLY DAYS OF POSSIBLE HOSTILITIES IN KARABAKH
Today
http://www.today.az/news/politics/72876.html
Sept 1 2010
Azerbaijan
Interview with famous Russian political analyst Stanislav Belkovski.
Do you share the view of some Russian, America and Azerbaijani media
outlets that the latest developments in the South Caucasus including
the recent Russia-Armenia deal extending lease of Gyumri military
base by 49 years shows that U.S. position in the region has weakened
while that of Russia has strengthened?
Russian-Armenian protocol extending presence of Russian military base
in Gyumri by 49 years was almost inevitable, because both Yerevan
and Moscow was interested in this. But Russia has no immediate
decisions about how it will act in the event of renewed hostilities
in Nagorno-Karabakh between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
One can only assume that Moscow will do its utmost to prevent this
war and the events in Kyrgyzstan showed that Russia is against
the use of its forces outside Russia, so as not to strain the
relations between Russians living in the states of the former USSR
and the local population. I do not agree with the statements claming
that U.S. influence has weakened in the region. Moreover, as to the
Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, position of the U.S.
and Russia coincide in this respect - both of the powers do not want
the hostilities to renew.
Other than war, are there any ways of restoring the territorial
integrity of Azerbaijan, recognized by the whole world, amid a
non-constructive position of Yerevan in a peaceful settlement of the
Karabakh which has lasted more than fifteen years?
The territorial conflict, as practice shows, can last very long. It
is enough to recall situation with Northern Cyprus, which is not
recognized by world. But there is also no a military solution to this
conflict either, as there is no EU assistance to Cyprus in addressing
this problem.
As for the likelihood of a military solution to the
Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, it is not a political
issue. If Baku assesses its military superiority over the Armenian
army as crucial, it would make sense for Azerbaijan to launch an
operation to restore its territorial integrity. If Azerbaijan lacks
such advantage, it is not worth to start fighting.
And what will the position of the United States, Russia and Europe be
in case Azerbaijan, tired of imitation of negotiations on the part
of Armenia, will be forced to resort to military ways to liberate
its occupied territories?
The positions of Russia, the U.S. and Europe will be uncertain at early
days of the military hostilities. And a lot depends on how long these
hostilities will last. If the war is short-term, the world's leading
powers will recognize the status quo that would emerge at the end
of war. If this war drags on, the world's leading powers will use
all means at their disposal to stop it and, as in the first case,
recognize the status quo, which would evolve in the war by that time.
I will paraphrase the question. On assistance of what allies Azerbaijan
can rely in the event of renewed hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh?
I once again offer to recall the situation with Cyprus. Are European
countries allies of Cyprus? Certainly are. Do European countries offer
Cyprus real help to solve the problem of Northern Cyprus? No, they do
not. So, none of his allies will offer real help to Azerbaijan if the
hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh resume. Similarly, Armenia will not
have allies, if it carries out offensive. In the case of defensive
action of the Armenian side, as I noted above, position of world
powers will depend on the time length of the new Armenian-Azerbaijani
war in Nagorno-Karabakh.
From: A. Papazian
Today
http://www.today.az/news/politics/72876.html
Sept 1 2010
Azerbaijan
Interview with famous Russian political analyst Stanislav Belkovski.
Do you share the view of some Russian, America and Azerbaijani media
outlets that the latest developments in the South Caucasus including
the recent Russia-Armenia deal extending lease of Gyumri military
base by 49 years shows that U.S. position in the region has weakened
while that of Russia has strengthened?
Russian-Armenian protocol extending presence of Russian military base
in Gyumri by 49 years was almost inevitable, because both Yerevan
and Moscow was interested in this. But Russia has no immediate
decisions about how it will act in the event of renewed hostilities
in Nagorno-Karabakh between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
One can only assume that Moscow will do its utmost to prevent this
war and the events in Kyrgyzstan showed that Russia is against
the use of its forces outside Russia, so as not to strain the
relations between Russians living in the states of the former USSR
and the local population. I do not agree with the statements claming
that U.S. influence has weakened in the region. Moreover, as to the
Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, position of the U.S.
and Russia coincide in this respect - both of the powers do not want
the hostilities to renew.
Other than war, are there any ways of restoring the territorial
integrity of Azerbaijan, recognized by the whole world, amid a
non-constructive position of Yerevan in a peaceful settlement of the
Karabakh which has lasted more than fifteen years?
The territorial conflict, as practice shows, can last very long. It
is enough to recall situation with Northern Cyprus, which is not
recognized by world. But there is also no a military solution to this
conflict either, as there is no EU assistance to Cyprus in addressing
this problem.
As for the likelihood of a military solution to the
Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, it is not a political
issue. If Baku assesses its military superiority over the Armenian
army as crucial, it would make sense for Azerbaijan to launch an
operation to restore its territorial integrity. If Azerbaijan lacks
such advantage, it is not worth to start fighting.
And what will the position of the United States, Russia and Europe be
in case Azerbaijan, tired of imitation of negotiations on the part
of Armenia, will be forced to resort to military ways to liberate
its occupied territories?
The positions of Russia, the U.S. and Europe will be uncertain at early
days of the military hostilities. And a lot depends on how long these
hostilities will last. If the war is short-term, the world's leading
powers will recognize the status quo that would emerge at the end
of war. If this war drags on, the world's leading powers will use
all means at their disposal to stop it and, as in the first case,
recognize the status quo, which would evolve in the war by that time.
I will paraphrase the question. On assistance of what allies Azerbaijan
can rely in the event of renewed hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh?
I once again offer to recall the situation with Cyprus. Are European
countries allies of Cyprus? Certainly are. Do European countries offer
Cyprus real help to solve the problem of Northern Cyprus? No, they do
not. So, none of his allies will offer real help to Azerbaijan if the
hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh resume. Similarly, Armenia will not
have allies, if it carries out offensive. In the case of defensive
action of the Armenian side, as I noted above, position of world
powers will depend on the time length of the new Armenian-Azerbaijani
war in Nagorno-Karabakh.
From: A. Papazian